Caio César Posted February 17, 2024 at 09:53 AM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 09:53 AM Nas rodadas da madrugada houve um sensível afastamento na influência do sistema em relação a costa, especialmente no europeu e CMC. Deve ficar mais restrito a centenas de quilômetros de terra firme. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 10:47 AM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 10:47 AM WTNT80 EGRR 170411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.02.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6S 39.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.02.2024 24.6S 39.9W WEAK 12UTC 17.02.2024 24.4S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.02.2024 25.1S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 26.1S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 27.7S 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2024 30.1S 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 31.9S 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 31.9S 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.2S 40.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.02.2024 32.1S 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 32.7S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.02.2024 33.3S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.02.2024 34.1S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170411 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:52 AM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:52 AM (edited) Futuro Akará parece estar dando inicio a sua corrida rumo a tropicalidade, novas conveções pipocando próximo ao centro da circulação Edited February 17, 2024 at 11:55 AM by edsr97 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maicon Posted February 17, 2024 at 12:13 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 12:13 PM Ficando bonito! 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 12:38 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 12:38 PM Estão destacando as águas mais quentes do que o normal e o baixo cisalhamento, seguimos monitorando 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renan Posted February 17, 2024 at 01:49 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 01:49 PM Grande explosão convectiva: 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 01:57 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 01:57 PM (edited) Em 17/02/2024 em 10:49, Renan disse: Grande explosão convectiva: Futuro Akará aparenta estar tentando ser organizar! Edited February 17, 2024 at 02:14 PM by edsr97 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 02:40 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 02:40 PM WINDY 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:05 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:05 PM CENTRO DE HIDROGRAFIA DA MARINHA ACABA DE ATUALIZAR O AVISO CHM MANTÉM O SISTEMA COMO DEPRESSÃO SUBTROPICAL ATÉ HOJE A NOITE, SENDO ESPERADA UMA EVOLUÇÃO PARA TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL APÓS AS 21H00, E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM TEMPESTADE TROPICAL AMANHÃ DE MANHÃ. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:17 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:17 PM CLASSIFICAÇÃO EM DEPRESSÃO SUBTROPICAL PARECE COERENTE NO MOMENTO. PICO DE VENTOS DA BAIXA ESTÁ EM 30KT (56KM/H), E ALÉM DISSO ESTÁ AFASTADO DO CENTRO (O QUE DENOTA SER UM SISTEMA HÍBRIDO). 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:21 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:21 PM 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:27 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:27 PM 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:37 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 03:37 PM SHEAR (CISALHAMENTO) BAIXO NA REGIÃO AONDE SE ENCONTRA A DEPRESSÃO (COR VERDE). AMBIENTE PORTANTO É FAVORÁVEL PARA INTENSIFICAÇÃO 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:08 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:08 PM 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:11 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:11 PM 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:16 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:16 PM NOVO AVISO DO CHM.... SEM MAIORES MUDANÇAS 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:33 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:33 PM GFS 12Z 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maicon Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:55 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 04:55 PM WINDY COLOCOU "MONITORAMENTE DE FURACÃO/CICLONE TROPICAL" DISPONÍVEL PRA ESTE EVENTO DA AMÉRICA DO SUL. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maicon Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:00 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:00 PM PREVISÃO DO TEMPO NO JORNAL DO ALMOÇO DA REDE GLOBO. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:08 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:08 PM 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:41 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:41 PM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:43 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 05:43 PM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 06:44 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 06:44 PM 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 06:54 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 06:54 PM (edited) WTNT80 EGRR 171611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.02.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7S 39.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.02.2024 24.7S 39.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.02.2024 24.9S 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 26.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 27.8S 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2024 29.8S 41.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 40.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 31.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.02.2024 33.3S 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171611 Edited February 17, 2024 at 06:55 PM by edsr97 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 06:56 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 06:56 PM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:03 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:03 PM Em 17/02/2024 em 15:54, edsr97 disse: WTNT80 EGRR 171611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.02.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7S 39.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.02.2024 24.7S 39.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.02.2024 24.9S 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 26.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 27.8S 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2024 29.8S 41.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 40.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 31.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.02.2024 33.3S 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171611 PREVISÃO GRÁFICA NO WINDY COM DADOS DO METOFFICE 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:19 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:19 PM (edited) Segue a luta feroz contra a entrada de muito ar seco no interior da circulação. Centro da baixa está novamente exposto. Edited February 17, 2024 at 07:21 PM by edsr97 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renan Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:22 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:22 PM FORÇA, AKARÁ ! 🙏🙏🙌🙌 2 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:26 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:26 PM O AR SECO QUE ENTRA NO SETOR OESTE DA CIRCULAÇÃO É NESTE MOMENTO O PRINCIPAL IMPEDIMENTO PARA QUE A DEPRESSÃO GANHE FORÇA. O CISALHAMENTO (WIND SHEAR) ESTÁ BASTANTE BAIXO ENTRE 10-15 NÓS, O QUE É FAVORÁVEL PARA A FORMAÇÃO DE SISTEMAS TROPICAIS, ALÉM DA SST DÁ SUPORTE ENTRE 26-27ºC. CICLONES TROPICAIS SE ALIMENTAM DO CALOR DO MAR (SST), DA ESTABILIDADE (SHEAR), E DA UMIDADE.... DESSES 3 FATORES, O ÚLTIMO ESTÁ EM FALTA. 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:48 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:48 PM 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:56 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 07:56 PM 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:03 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:03 PM 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlos Campos Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:46 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:46 PM A marcação não é minha. SIMEPAR 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlos Campos Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:50 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:50 PM Em 17/02/2024 em 16:22, Renan disse: FORÇA, AKARÁ ! 🙏🙏🙌🙌 Não gosto desses nomes usados pela marinha do Brasil. Dá impressão que o país ainda é selvagem (na verdade quase é, mas em outro sentido). Faz parecer q vivemos numa imensa aldeia indígena. Sou chato mesmo 1 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Pelisari Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:54 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 08:54 PM Em 17/02/2024 em 16:19, edsr97 disse: Segue a luta feroz contra a entrada de muito ar seco no interior da circulação. Centro da baixa está novamente exposto. Tadinha por isso que está em depressão 😂 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aldo Santos Posted February 17, 2024 at 09:50 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 09:50 PM (edited) Em 17/02/2024 em 17:50, Carlos Campos disse: Não gosto desses nomes usados pela marinha do Brasil. Dá impressão que o país ainda é selvagem (na verdade quase é, mas em outro sentido). Faz parecer q vivemos numa imensa aldeia indígena. Sou chato mesmo Os EUA estão "lotados" de nomes indígenas : Mississippi, Utah, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Massachusetts, Chicago, Oklahoma, Iowa, Dakota, Tennessee, Alabama, Arizona... O Canadá também tem um monte: Ontario, Ottawa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Winnipeg, Toronto... Edited February 17, 2024 at 10:01 PM by Aldo Santos 2 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 10:30 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 10:30 PM 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 17, 2024 at 10:47 PM Author Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 10:47 PM NOVA PASSAGEM DO SATÉLITE QUE MEDE OS VENTOS NO OCEANO ESTA TARDE, E NOVAMENTE NÃO VEMOS AINDA UMA ORGANIZAÇÃO QUE LEVE A SER CLASSIFICADA EM TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL NA IMAGEM DÁ PARA VER QUE A BAIXA ESTÁ MAIS SIMÉTRICA (REDONDA), PORÉM O PICO DE VENTOS ESTÁ ENTRE 25-30 NÓS (45-55KM/H) A SUDESTE DA CIRCULAÇÃO. O AR SECO SEGUE DIFICULTANDO MAIOR ORGANIZAÇÃO DA DEPRESSÃO SUBTROPICAL. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlos Campos Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:15 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:15 PM Em 17/02/2024 em 18:50, Aldo Santos disse: Os EUA estão "lotados" de nomes indígenas : Mississippi, Utah, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Massachusetts, Chicago, Oklahoma, Iowa, Dakota, Tennessee, Alabama, Arizona... O Canadá também tem um monte: Ontario, Ottawa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Winnipeg, Toronto... Sim, mas me refiro aos nomes das tempestades tropicais/furacões, não dos estados. Vou enviar agora mesmo uma carta pra marinha com sugestões... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:36 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:36 PM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:40 PM Share Posted February 17, 2024 at 11:40 PM https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/tropical-cyclone-forms-in-atlantic-but-not-where-you-d-think/ar-BB1ir4Dv?ocid=spr_weather&businessvertical=Weather 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:03 AM Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:03 AM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:03 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:03 AM SAÍDAS DO GFS E EURO DE AGORA A TARDE 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:05 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:05 AM ENSEMBLE 12Z - GFS E EURO 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:09 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:09 AM JORNAL NACIONAL 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:59 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 12:59 AM GFS 18Z ENSEMBLE MEMBROS 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 01:30 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 01:30 AM SAÍDA 18Z DO MODELO EUROPEU VOLTA A APROXIMAR O CICLONE MAIS DA COSTA DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL. A SAÍDA TERMINA EM 90 HORAS, POR SER MAIS CURTA QUE A 0Z E A 12Z. UM MOTIVO EXPLICA ESSA RODADA DO ECMWF TRAZER O CICLONE MAIS PRÓXIMA DA COSTA. NOS MÉDIOS NIVEIS DA ATMOSFERA (500hPA), UMA ANOMALIA POSITIVA DE GEOPOTENCIAL (LARANJA) A LESTE DA ARGENTINA GANHARIA FORÇA NESSA RODADA, O QUE IMPEDE DE UM CAVADO MAIS A LESTE, DE "CAPTURAR" A BAIXA E PUXAR ELA PRO MEIO DO ATLÂNTICO SUL. COM ESSA ANOMALIA MAIS FORTE, A BAIXA FICA MAIS A OESTE, E FICA SEMI-ESTACIONARIA, POIS NÃO CONSEGUE IR PARA SUL E NEM PARA O OESTE DEVIDO AO VÓRTICE EM CIMA DO PARANÁ. ISSO MOSTRA O QUÃO É COMPLEXO PREVER A TRAJETÓRIA DESSA BAIXA, POIS, DEPENDE DO POSICIONAMENTO E INTENSIDADE DESSE BLOQUEIO A LESTE DA ARGENTINA E O VÓRTICE NO INTERIOR DO SUL. QUALQUER MUDANÇA NESSES SISTEMAS, IRÁ INFLUIR NA POSIÇÃO DA BAIXA, DAÍ A VOLATILIDADE NAS SAÍDAS DOS MODELOS EM COLOCAR MAIS A OESTE, OU MAIS A LESTE. NO MOMENTO NENHUM MODELO SUGERE O SISTEMA INDO EM DIREÇÃO A COSTA, EMBORA ESSA CHANCE AINDA NÃO É 0, POIS DENTRO DO ENSEMBLE HÁ ALGUNS MEMBROS LEVANDO PARA A COSTA (VIDE POSTAGENS ANTERIORES), MAS ENTENDO QUE O RISCO DE UM LANDFALL É MUITO BAIXO POR ENQUANTO. SEGUIMOS ACOMPANHANDO.... 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 02:03 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 02:03 AM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted February 18, 2024 at 02:41 AM Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 02:41 AM CARTA 0Z MANTÉM DEPRESSÃO SUBTROPICAL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe Pelisari Posted February 18, 2024 at 02:49 AM Share Posted February 18, 2024 at 02:49 AM É impressão minha ou o ciclone vai ficar sem opção de deslocamento, vai ficar por dias quase parado na altura do RS? Não entendo muito 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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