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Tempo Severo EUA - 2025

Tavares

By Tavares,
in Tempo Severo

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  • 2 weeks later...
Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted

Janeiro registrou 16 tornados e fevereiro até o momento está com 37 tornados.

No geral, esse começo de ano está bem calmo nos EUA, mas isso pode mudar logo na primeira semana de Março.

 

Modelos estão indicando um evento significativo de tempo severo na próxima semana.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.thumb.png.2e0b2ae524641d56ac43291835de0710.png

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Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted 
By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
   complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS
   and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is
   increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with
   an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern
   Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS
   has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the
   confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a
   significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe
   weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central
   Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event
   draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection
   including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line
   will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including
   strong tornadoes.
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  • 2 weeks later...
Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted

O tempo severo previsto para começo de março aos poucos foi perdendo intensidade e acabou sendo um evento bem fraco.

Ao todo foram 35 tornados confirmados entre 3 e 5 de março.

 

Modelos estão indicando desde semana passada a chance de outro surto de tempo severo.

Risco de tempo severo deve ser na sexta e sábado. 

 

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Augusto Göelzer Mentor

Augusto Göelzer

Posted
Posted
Em 14/03/2025 em 10:31, Caio César disse:

Tem chance de uma squall line forte nesse episódio. Quiça um derecho... a ver.

Dois dias atrás era mais provável a formação de um derecho, porém, o ambiente previsto e o modo convectivo se alterou. Com as previsões de ontem e hoje, o esperado é um modo semi-discreto. Tornados devem ser fortes.

 

HRRR 12z para hoje:

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348552874_refcmp_uh001h.us_ov(1).thumb.png.2802dbd2f319dcbbceb1087180a1752b.png

 

 

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Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 36
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   730 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northeast Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Far Southwest Indiana
     Western Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northern Mississippi
     Western Tennessee

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
   watch area over the next several hours. Environmental conditions are
   very favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
   including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and
   strong (EF2+) tornadoes. If storms can remain discrete, potential
   exists for a few long-track tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville
   IN to 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU6).

This graphic displays Tornado Watch watch number 36 plotted on a map. The watch is in effect until 3:00 AM CDT. The watch includes parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee. The threats associated with this watch are several strong tornadoes likely, scattered hail up to tennis ball size likely and widespread gusts up to 80 mph likely. There are 4,233,670 people in the watch along with 1669 schools and 146 hospitals.

 

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Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted (edited)

Pelo menos uns 25 tornados reportados ontem, com alguns bem significativos.

No Arkansas houve grandes danos nas partes ao norte do estado, com danos EF2+ e 3 mortes.

No Missouri se confirma 10 mortes com danos significativos em diversas cidades.

Houve danos por tornados significativos também no Mississipi, Illinois e Indiana.

 

yesterday_filtered.gif.37ec5bf64d94f735290120d7200bfd3f.gif

 

Norte do Arkansas:

 

Imagem

 

Imagem

Edited by Felipe F
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Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted

Hoje um grande surto de tornados é esperado, com potencial de vários tornados intensos.

Um alto risco está em vigor principalmente para Mississippi e Alabama,

 

GmFdVd7akAAtM_v.thumb.jpg.8dbd7c6cd609b5986b60494a4bf5199c.jpg

 

O primeiro PDS tornado watch já está em vigor. 

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 45
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Louisiana
     Mississippi
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1030 AM until
     600 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...Multiple supercells are expected late this morning through
   early evening from eastern Louisiana into much of Mississippi. With
   a very favorable environment in place, numerous tornadoes are
   expected, including the potential for multiple intense to violent
   tornadoes (EF3-4+). Scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in
   diameter and damaging winds of 60-75 mph will also be a threat as
   these thunderstorms move northeastward.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS
   to 35 miles northeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update

 

GmF4dV4bcAIxLg4.thumb.jpg.b0d5dd0b70f42a55ebd5c6844f38195a.jpg

 

 

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