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Tempo Severo EUA - 2023

Felipe F

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Em 26/02/2023 em 20:31, Tavares disse:

Tá chegando aquela época gostosa do ano. Espero que não decepcione e que o high risk venha.

Aliás, 10 anos já desde o último EF5.

Ainda não me conformei que nenhum dos tornados de Dezembro de 2021 foi classificado como EF5. 

Fora outros tornados significativos como a Pascoa de 2020, Maio de 2016 em Oklahoma e Vilonia em 2014.

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Fevereiro terminou com 43 tornados confirmados nos EUA.

Tivemos 8 tornados classificados como EF2, um deles o que ocorreu em Norman, OK.

Uma morte também foi confirmada perto de OKC nos tornados do dia 26/02.



Março deve começar agitado e hoje o potencial tornádico e de 10%.

Um tornado watch está em vigor para essas áreas.



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  • 2 weeks later...
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   An outbreak of severe weather is expected from the Lower Mississippi
   Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
   Tornadoes, strong to potentially intense, as well as damaging winds
   and hail are expected.

   ***Tornado Outbreak Possible Across Portions of the Mid Mississippi
   Valley Friday Evening***

   A mid-level trough can be seen on water vapor east of the northern
   Baja Peninsula this morning. This trough will move quickly across
   the southern Plains through the day and into the Mid
   Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley by Saturday morning. A very strong
   mid-level jet (90-100 knots) will develop as this wave impinges on a
   strong upper-level High across the Southeast. 

   Broad warm air advection is expected across the Mid-Mississippi
   Valley during the day Friday with a strengthening low-level jet
   through the day. Significant mass response is expected across this
   area by early evening as the mid-level trough approaches the area.
   As a result, the surface low will deepen rapidly between 00Z to 06Z
   to around 992-994mb in the southern Illinois/Indiana vicinity.
   During this period of rapid deepening, a warm front which is
   forecast to be mostly stationary from northeast Arkansas to central
   Tennessee during most of the day, will start to move quickly north
   during the late afternoon with the northern extent of the warm
   sector depicted by the approximate path of the surface low.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley...
   Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
   eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Some embedded supercells are
   possible with the threat for a few weak tornadoes. Most guidance is
   consistent with the convectively enhanced cold front drifting south
   into north-central/northeast Arkansas in the morning. Therefore,
   this early activity will likely wane as it interacts with this
   southward moving front by late morning. 

   A pocket of drier air can be seen on water vapor moving north in the
   west-central Gulf early this morning. This is associated with a
   relative minimum in PWAT which will overspread eastern Louisiana and
   much of Mississippi during the late morning and through the
   afternoon. This seems to be responsible for the significant mixing
   and surface dewpoint reductions seen my much of the guidance across
   Mississippi in the afternoon where temperatures warm into low 80s.
   However, despite this drier air further east, deep moisture will
   remain across the western Gulf and will advect northward into
   Louisiana during the afternoon as low-level mass response increases.
   By mid to late afternoon, upper 60s to potentially low 70s dewpoints
   are expected across northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas,
   spreading into northern Mississippi by the evening. This will lead
   to an uncapped warm sector featuring MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg up the
   Mississippi River to near Memphis and 1500-2000 J/kg farther south
   across northern Louisiana and west-central Mississippi. 

   Expect storms to strengthen during the afternoon as the better
   moisture advects northward and destabilizes the airmass ahead of
   ongoing activity. CAM guidance is in agreement for a strong QLCS to
   develop from central to northern Arkansas during the afternoon. This
   line of storms will pose a threat for damaging wind and QLCS
   tornadoes given the long, curved low-level hodographs with the best
   overlap of favorable shear and instability in the vicinity of the
   Mississippi River. This line of storms will eventually outrun the
   better instability as it moves toward Middle Tennessee/southern
   Kentucky, but the strong low-level jet (~70 kts), and strong forcing
   with the deepening surface cyclone will help to maintain some severe
   threat well into the overnight despite progressively more meager

   Across southeast Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northwest
   Mississippi, a more volatile environment will develop Friday
   evening/early overnight. More discrete convection is anticipated on
   the southern periphery of the aforementioned QLCS. The more discrete
   mode, combined with greater instability and strong shear should
   allow for multiple supercells to develop across northern Louisiana
   and southern Arkansas and move northeastward. Low-level hodographs
   are very favorable in this region with 0-500m SRH around 200 m2/s2
   and 0-1km SRH 300+ m2/s2. Therefore, any sustained supercells will
   be capable of producing strong to intense (EF3+) tornadoes, with
   long-track tornadoes possible with any longer-lived, undisturbed

   00Z HREF members showed a variety of solutions which cast some
   uncertainty on the forecast. WRF members are notably less bullish
   with warm sector supercell development from northeast Louisiana into
   northern Mississippi while the HRRR was most aggressive with
   convective coverage and environment. After further investigation it
   appears the more aggressive HRRR solution can be attributed to a
   more robust mass response during the afternoon/early evening hours.
   This results in a pronounced shortwave trough which can be seen at
   700 and 850mb and reflected as a significant confluence zone at the
   surface. Not only does this act as a forcing for storm development,
   but it also acts as moisture convergence with a more broad region of
   70+F dewpoints. In this scenario, numerous strong tornadoes would be
   likely, with the potential for several intense tornadoes. Despite
   being the most aggressive, this solution does not seem unreasonable
   as similar low-level confluence features can been on both the 00Z
   GFS and the 18Z ECMWF. 

   As is often the case, the severity of the tornado threat across the
   moderate risk will be modulated by mesoscale influences in the
   region. As the event approaches, these mesoscale effects may become
   more clear and allow the greatest risk corridor to become better

   ..Bentley/Weinman.. 03/24/2023



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