Felipe F Posted May 19, 2019 at 05:54 AM Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 at 05:54 AM DIA 2 - MODERADO RISCO. Potencial tornadico em 15%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 19, 2019 at 04:06 PM Share Posted May 19, 2019 at 04:06 PM Com o evento entrando na grade do HRRR, o modelo mostra um cenário mais agressivo que o NAM, com células mais isoladas avançando até além da região metropolitana da Cidade de Oklahoma ao anoitecer quando o NAM mostrava já uma LI HRRR 12Z NAM 3km 12Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 19, 2019 at 06:41 PM Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 at 06:41 PM O risco moderado foi mantido. O SPC na minha visão está atuando corretamente, pois como já vimos ocorrer várias vezes, a convecção matinal poderia reduzir o potencial do evento. Um alto risco poderia ser emitido no final da manhã, quando essa incerteza acabar. Caso se confirme a previsão atual, poderíamos estar diante de um grande/histórico surto amanhã, semelhante a 24/05/2011. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 01:52 AM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 01:52 AM 00Z HRRR 20 horas antes do evento desenha um cenário terrível de tempo severo e ainda amplia a área de atuação das células que se formarão num ambiente bastante favorável pra desenvolver rotação intensa. Um enxame de tornados. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 02:33 AM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 02:33 AM Algumas cidades de Oklahoma cancelaram as aulas amanhã. Rodadas de agora a noite como foi mostrado seguem assustadoras. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 02:47 AM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 02:47 AM Manchetes de um dia normal de Maio em Oklahoma 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:01 AM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:01 AM ALTO RISCO EMITIDO! Citar THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:02 AM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:02 AM DIA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:08 AM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:08 AM ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition, many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas into western Missouri and western Arkansas. Additional severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible this afternoon from southeast New York into southern and central New England. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into Tonight... ...Southern and Central Plains... An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains. The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property. RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with 0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. This environment should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet. The current thinking concerning the details is that the first round of severe storms will begin early as thunderstorms initiate in west Texas and move northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid to late morning. Initially, large hail will be the main threat but as these storms mature, tornadoes will be possible with the stronger and more dominant cells. Additional supercells with tornado potential are expected to initiate near the warm front in western and central Oklahoma. A tornado threat will transition to large hail and wind damage as the storms move into Kansas to the north side of the boundary. This first round of severe storms is forecast to move northeastward, away from the warm sector, allowing for the development of extreme instability during the mid to late afternoon from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma. The second round of severe storms is expected to start during the late afternoon as repeat initiation takes place in west Texas. Rapid supercell formation is forecast along the I-27 corridor from the vicinity of Lubbock northward to just south of Amarillo. A cluster of tornadic supercells is then forecast to move northeastward into northwest Texas and the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the early evening. Additional tornadic supercells are forecast to rapidly develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeastward into west-central Oklahoma. At that time, the strengthening low-level jet will couple with a highly progressive and seasonably strong mid-level jet, making conditions favorable for long-track strong tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes. The greatest threat for long-track tornadoes will exist along the corridor from near Lubbock northeastward to Childress, Altus, Lawton, Clinton to just west of the Oklahoma City and Enid vicinities. After considerable deliberation, a High risk will be issued for parts of west Texas, the southeastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. In addition to the tornado threat, conditions will be very favorable for large hail and wind damage. Strong instability, enhanced deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will make hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the more intense supercells, mainly in west Texas and the western half of Oklahoma. A wind-damage threat will also exist across much of the southern Plains due to the expected intense nature of the storms. The wind-damage threat, including some gusts above 70 kt, should become widespread during the late evening into the overnight period as squall line organizes and moves quickly eastward across the southern Plains. ...Southeast New York/New England... An upper-level trough will move across southern Quebec and the Northeast today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across New York and into western New England. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F should result in destabilization of the airmass by afternoon from southeast New York into much of southern and central New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected around midday along the cold front with this convection moving eastward across the moist sector during the afternoon. Forecast soundings along the instability axis from Springfield, Massachusetts northeastward into Vermont at 21Z show MLCAPE values peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range and have steep low-level lapse rates. This combined with 0-6 km shear values around 35 kt should be sufficient for multicells with wind damage potential. A few rotating storms with a large-hail threat may also develop. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 05/20/2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jean10lj Posted May 20, 2019 at 11:52 AM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 11:52 AM 5 horas atrás, Felipe F disse: DIA 1 Severíssimo, adoramos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jean10lj Posted May 20, 2019 at 01:25 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 01:25 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:00 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:00 PM Alto risco deslocado mais para sul e leste. A convecção matinal está ocorrendo perto de Woodward, OK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:36 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:36 PM Tempo bom na área de alto risco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:47 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:47 PM Redações muito fortes do SPC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jean10lj Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:51 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:51 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jean10lj Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:54 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 03:54 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:36 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:36 PM POTENCIAL TORNADICO 45% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:40 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:40 PM (edited) 3 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: POTENCIAL TORNADICO 45% Esses 45% representam a probabilidade de um tornado em um raio de 40 km de um ponto. Olha as cidades dentro desse perímetro: Edited May 20, 2019 at 04:41 PM by Tavares 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:43 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:43 PM Aguardando o PDS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:46 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 04:46 PM Conferência completa Mesoscale Discussion 0699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...southwest into central OK...western north-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 201617Z - 201845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will likely be needed for portions of central and western OK. Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest a watch being issued during the 1pm-2pm period. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field over western north-central TX into southwest and south-central OK. Rapid moisture advection is occurring late this morning with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 70s over southern OK. Upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by early to mid afternoon across western and central OK with intensifying wind profiles. Short-term model guidance appears to have a reasonable depiction of free warm sector initiation occurring over southwest and south-central OK during the 2-3pm period. The observational trend in visible satellite imagery showing more pronounced bands of low cloud cover ---perhaps indicative of horizontal convective rolls and/or low-level confluence zones is supportive evidence for this model-based depiction. The expectation is for storms to develop on the northern half of these cloud features with explosive supercell development likely thereafter. Forecast soundings show a very rare combination of intense low-level SRH, very moist boundary, and extreme buoyancy. As such, the risk for strong to violent tornadoes appears to be increasing later this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith.. 05/20/2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:04 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:04 PM LINKS: TV OKC: https://www.koco.com/article/first-alert-ride-along-watch-storm-chasers-live/26553204 TV OKC: https://okcfox.com/watch?video=1a416d588a4e4b5dbf060d5f461ec801 TV WICHITA FALLS: https://www.newschannel6now.com/live/ STORM CHASING: https://livestormchasing.com/map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:10 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:10 PM O evento deve mobilizar o país todo. Página Inicial da CNN: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:30 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:30 PM Jeff ao vivo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:39 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:39 PM RADAR E OUTROS DADOS DE OKLAHOMA: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:42 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:42 PM (edited) Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 197 95/90 Edited May 20, 2019 at 05:51 PM by Felipe F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:51 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 05:51 PM Nem é o "epicentro" ainda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:28 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:28 PM Mesoscale Discussion 0702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...southwest and central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 201821Z - 201845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Environmental signals are continuing to point towards a tornado outbreak with multiple strong to potentially violent tornadoes across portions of western and central OK later this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a bubbling and destabilizing boundary layer with upwards of 4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing across the warm sector over western and central OK. Surface dewpoints are rising through the lower 70s degrees F across western and central OK. The 18z Fort Worth, TX upper air balloon showed a capping inversion located just below 700mb. Recent runs of the RAP model show this inversion less pronounced farther north. Despite temperatures warming into the lower 80s over north TX into southwest OK, this capping inversion has delayed convective initiation. This is concerning for 2 reasons: 1) the wind profile continues to strengthen across southwest and central OK with the Norman, OK upper air balloon sampling 50kt flow around 850mb which is about 1-2 hours earlier than forecast soundings were showing. 2) It does not appear many storms will develop across southwest OK and resulting in destructive storm-to-storm interference. In other words, tornadic potential appears very high. Storms will likely initiate on the north-end of the cloud streets over southwestern OK in the hotter air and intensify and move northeast towards the I-40 and I-35 corridors later. As such, the very rare combination of shear/buoyancy with many hours of run-to-run consistency of the HRRR model showing discrete supercells all point to a tornado outbreak developing later this afternoon featuring strong to violent long-track tornadoes. ..Smith/Hart.. 05/20/2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:39 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:39 PM 95/95 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:41 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:41 PM PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:48 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 06:48 PM Site do SPC travadíssimo. HRRR insinua que supercélulas se formarão no extremo leste de OK/AR e no Kansas. Não me surpreenderia se houver mais PDS hoje. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:17 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:17 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:23 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:23 PM (edited) Célula com rotação perto de Dicken, TX . Esse é o primeiro tornado warnin do dia. Edited May 20, 2019 at 07:24 PM by Felipe F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:25 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:25 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:26 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:26 PM 1 minuto atrás, Felipe F disse: Célula com rotação perto de Dicken, TX . Esse é o primeiro tornado warnin do dia. Começou #superoutbreak 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:27 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:27 PM Primeiro para Oklahoma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:29 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:29 PM EDD fora do ar também. Melhor ferramenta pra usar junto com o maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:36 PM Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:36 PM Células já estão nascendo apresentando rotação. Uma delas que está se desenvolvendo vai atingir em cheio a cidade de El Reno 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:47 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:47 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:56 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 07:56 PM Disputa para ver qual célula vai ser a dominante. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:02 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:02 PM Paducah, TX. Tornado ficou no chão por poucos segundos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:04 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:04 PM Paducah, TX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:07 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:07 PM Paducah, TX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:12 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:12 PM Mais um link ao vivo, que @Andoni mandou 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:36 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:36 PM Tornado perto de Piedmont, OK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:49 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:49 PM Breves momentos no chão 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:50 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:50 PM Radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:51 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:51 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:53 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:53 PM Tornado confirmado perto de Childress, TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:57 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 08:57 PM Oklahoma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted May 20, 2019 at 09:08 PM Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 at 09:08 PM Childress, TX que teve um tornado mais cedo, com duas áreas apresentando rotação agora. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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