Jump to content
Brasil Abaixo de Zero
Sign in to follow this  
Rodolfo Alves

Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste/Central - 2017

Recommended Posts

Todos modelos de acordo com Harvey afetando Texas e posteriormente voltando ao Golfo e fazendo um segundo landfall na Louisiana.

INUNDAÇÕES CATASTRÓFICAS POSSÍVEIS NOS DOIS ESTADOS, COM ACUMULADOS SUPERIORES A 1100 MM SENDO PREVISTOS PARA ÁREAS DO TEXAS.

Risco também de um tornado outbreak caso se confirme a trajetória e o lento deslocamento do ciclone.

 

two_atl_5d0.png.3a1142192bb3ac9ba440155210ead92e.png

 

[nfo]1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over

the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has

become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are

conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of

Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over

the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move

in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in

northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the

progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and

tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas

coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and

eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to

products from your local National Weather Service office for more

information on this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.[/nfo]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Harvey se regenera na Baía de Campeche para uma depressão tropical.

AL, 09, 2017082312, , BEST, 0, 214N, 925W, 30, 1006, TD

Harvey.thumb.jpg.b3c3b9d1cec1b59c8ba9da1268ea3480.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ultima rodada dos modelos seguem apontando um dilúvio para o Texas.

 

GFS/NCEP

 

gfs_tprecip_texas_41.thumb.png.248c27892e966eeb5d5751f7025f6e0f.png

 

ECMWF EPS system contains 50-perturbed members + 1-control run.

 

eps_qpf_15_tx_41.thumb.png.f5620d4e8cad47473c12f577695be900.png

 

eps_qpf_m_tx_59.thumb.png.aed6a063de7752b234b19e74425ae82f.png

 

ecmwf_tprecip_tx_27.thumb.png.9dd3c547ad1043b83c40413f2643c212.png

 

ecmwf_tprecip_austin_27.thumb.png.fe4080aa124f6e08e5ff5b4ed6be1b79.png

 

ecmwf_tprecip_houston_27.thumb.png.0f9bb3d8155b580e0c61488d2b724dbc.png

 

From NCEP/NWS Weather Prediction Center

 

wpc_total_precip_tx_28.thumb.png.c1337157b60dae1a233e8fe4bc73aa09.png

 

WRF inicializado com o ECMWF

 

wxbell_tprecip_tx_241.thumb.png.5a554629cb3ff55bfecbc6c35c0d9ab4.png

 

Modelo Canadense

 

cmc_total_precip_tx_41.thumb.png.c7d011dc2fda5826bf60a11857c62641.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Isso não parece NADA BOM.....por quê vai causar tamanha quantidade de precipitação esse sistema, sendo inclusive um volume maior que ciclones tropicais intensos ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[glow=red]A título de curiosidade.[/glow] O modelo NAM (Modelo Regional pra América do Norte), muito consultado pra eventos continentais mas que costuma superestimar baixas pressões no mar prevê um furacão de CAT 4 SSHWS próximo a Corpus Christi TX. Achei interessante, mas vai que...

9wfCIgN.png

GChdgsq.png

eBEHn2r.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ultima rodada dos modelos seguem apontando um dilúvio para o Texas.

A 18Z do GFS além de desenhar um furacão mais intenso que as rodadas anteriores, coloca (se confirmar, é claro) acumulado de quase [glow=red]1100 mm[/glow] pras áreas a sudoeste de Corpus Christi entre sábado e quarta-feira, somados a ventos de 160 km/h no momento do landfall

R1cSMWv.png

 

EDIT: Despacho do governador do Texas declarando zona de desastre às áreas que serão afetadas por Harvey (em PDF e em inglês): https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/Governor_Abbott_Declares_State_of_Disaster_For_30_Texas_Counties.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Harvey está rapidamente se intensificando.

Imagens da organização ocorrida em 9 horas.

 

sYlG7DD.png

 

amE3Q2i.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rápida intensificação possível hoje, poderia ir na categoria 4.

Alto risco de inundações catastróficas para Texas e Louisiana está mantido.

Primeiro landfall pode ser próximo a cidade de Corpus Christi (325 mil habitantes).

 

avn0.gif.5f6ed59fcffe830e3d88bf906f44815d.gif

 

GFS

uMBNzzl.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Voo de reconhecimento em andamento.

Queda de 11 mbar em 4 horas!!!

Pressão mínima de 985 mbar.

Sinais também de uma parede do olho bem formada.

 

DH_dWrtXsAE-PKD.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

24 horas atrás, os modelos estavam prevendo que Harvey fosse apenas uma tempestade fraca de 1004 mb esta manhã.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Queda de 2 mbar de acordo com um novo voo de reconhecimento.

Ainda não foram encontrados ventos com força de furacão.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pressão caiu para 981 mbar.

142600 2355N 09313W 8429 01345 9815 +223 +164 201006 013 019 002 00

 

5Z8MEzq.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felipe F,

Li na década de 1990 sobre recordes de chuva em poucas horas nos Estado Unidos, no Texas registrou 750 mm (acho que em 5 horas), com certeza foi chuva de furacão.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A previsão de landfall bem na região que morei no Texas, em Corpus Christi, estou em contato com alguns amigos de lá e estão todos se preparando, além da cidade estar cheia de alerta para evacuação!

 

O ultimo furação forte que atingiu a região foi em 1970!!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Felipe F,

Li na década de 1990 sobre recordes de chuva em poucas horas nos Estado Unidos, no Texas registrou 750 mm (acho que em 5 horas), com certeza foi chuva de furacão.

1998 e 2001 tiveram grandes eventos de chuva ligados aos restos de um ciclone ou ao próprio ciclone (Madeline e Allison).

Caso se confirme os acumulados de +1000 mm será um dos ciclones/restos de ciclone que mais trouxe chuva para o Texas.

O recorde é 1219.2 mm causado pela tempestade Amelia em 1978.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A previsão de landfall bem na região que morei no Texas, em Corpus Christi, estou em contato com alguns amigos de lá e estão todos se preparando, além da cidade estar cheia de alerta para evacuação!

 

O ultimo furação forte que atingiu a região foi em 1970!!!!!

Avise que pode ser pior que Célia em 1970.

https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricanecelia

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NHC prevendo landfall como categoria 3.

Avisos e alertas de furacão em vigor para toda costa do Texas e norte do México.

Destaque para os acumulados de chuva significativos que devem ocorrer em uma ampla área e storm surge de até 3 metros.

 

152721_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.545629350b730949c72a97eac6e3efa7.png

 

000

WTNT34 KNHC 241454

TCPAT4

 

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017

1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

 

...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR

HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.0N 93.3W

ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS

ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

 

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

 

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

 

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to

monitor the progress of this system.

 

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside

the United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was

located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near

latitude 24.0 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is moving toward

the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the

northwest is expected later today, and Harvey's forward speed is

forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the

forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on

Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then

stall near the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

 

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained

winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.

Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a

major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)

from the center.

 

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 982 mb

(29.00 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the

middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same

time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to

central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches

extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi

Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is

expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 10 ft

Sargent to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft

Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft

San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft

Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft

High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning

area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions

expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area

Friday.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,

Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Encontraram 77 kt próximo ao olho no reconhecimento que está em andamento. Harley deve ser classificado como categoria 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Harvey se fortalece para categoria 1.

Ventos sustentados em 130 km/h e pressão de 981 mbar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A expectativa aqui é que Harvey seja o furacão mais forte a fazer landfall nos USA, desde Wilma em 2005.

Edited by Guest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Guidelines.