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Carlos Dias

Monitoramento e Previsão Internacional - Anual 2013

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Em Clima Natalino,

 

Rovaniemi na Finlândia, que é casa do Papai Noel tem nevinha fraca agora (pra variar) e com temperatura de -0,6C

 

Modelos apontam grande chance de neve pra noite do dia 24/25 por lá... Santa Claus agradece! :sarcastic:

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Hi all, here in Rome (Italy) it's raining. Temperature 11 degrees. Yesterday and Wednesday very cold in the morning. Many Ice on the ground with temperature between 0 and -2 degrees. For the next two days the weather will be good while for Christsman Day and 26th of December will be rainy with snow at 1000 mt.

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Hi all, here in Rome (Italy) it's raining. Temperature 11 degrees. Yesterday and Wednesday very cold in the morning. Many Ice on the ground with temperature between 0 and -2 degrees. For the next two days the weather will be good while for Christsman Day and 26th of December will be rainy with snow at 1000 mt.

 

See ice everywhere... It's just wonderful! Well, in the place you are, it's most common to occur than here.... So, it turns more wonderful yet!

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Risco moderado amanhã para partes do Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas e Louisiana.

 

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1112 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

 

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF

LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ALL OF

WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

FROM EAST TX THE UPPER TX GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO THE OH RIVER

VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...

 

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER

MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...

 

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG TO VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE

PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. A POTENT

SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...WAS PIVOTING

THROUGH THE BASE OF A POSITIVE-TILT LARGER SCALE TROUGH ORIENTED SW

TO NE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS

DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH

TOWARD DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE

MID-LEVEL WAVE ACCELERATES NEWD FROM WEST TX TOWARD THE MS VALLEY ON

SATURDAY...500MB FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 100KT ACROSS THE

ARKLATEX...WHILE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 60-70KT FROM

EAST TX TO THE OH VALLEY.

 

AT THE SFC...A SHARP QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING

DEFINED FROM CNTRL/NERN TX TO THE OH VALLEY. AS MID/UPPER TROUGH

APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY

WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AIRMASS ALONG AND

SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE

CONVECTION. IN FACT...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE

START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. AS

AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY...THE PROSPECT FOR

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE

MORNING AND INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER OH

VALLEY AND OVER THE LA/MS DELTA REGION.

 

...AKLATEX ACROSS LA/MS...

WHILE SBCAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM

SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE

LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN AN ENVIRONMENT

CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW AND NAM4/ SHOW REMARKABLE

CONSISTENCY AND DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONGLY FORCED

PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL-LINE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER BY LATE MORNING. WITH

CLOUD-BEARING MEAN WINDS AND BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS AROUND 60KT...AS

WELL AS ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500

M2/S2...SEVERE WINDS AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LEWP/BOW

STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER QLCS. MESOSCALE LOWS/WAVES

RIPPLING ALONG THE LINE MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO

POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA.

 

THE BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NRN LA

AND THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TRAILING PORTION OF THE

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAKE SLOWER PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN LA AND MAY

NOT ARRIVE ACROSS THE LA/MS DELTA REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK SATURDAY

EVENING. NONETHELESS...EXPECT SEVERE WIND/TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST

AFTER DARK OVER THESE AREAS.

 

....AR/TN TO OH VALLEY...

CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT

MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR FRONTAL WAVES FORECAST

TO FORM AND RIPPLE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL

RESULT IN BOUTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SPREADING NEWD FROM AR TO

SRN IL/IND AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SWRN OH INTO THE EVENING.

STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND RELATIVELY MOIST ADIABATIC

PROFILE...ALONG WITH ORGANIZING INFLUENCE FROM FRONTAL

WAVES/LOWS...SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR COINCIDENT

WITH ANY PERSISTENT FRONTAL WAVE.

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Hi all, here in Rome (Italy) it's raining. Temperature 11 degrees. Yesterday and Wednesday very cold in the morning. Many Ice on the ground with temperature between 0 and -2 degrees. For the next two days the weather will be good while for Christsman Day and 26th of December will be rainy with snow at 1000 mt.

 

See ice everywhere... It's just wonderful! Well, in the place you are, it's most common to occur than here.... So, it turns more wonderful yet!

 

Good morning Mauricio, I can see often Ice on the ground, garden and in particular over my car in the winter. Roma Tor Vergata is the colder area of Rome. My minimum record is -8,4. Today it's very good, sunny and not cold.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0646 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

 

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR

TN VLYS...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK

AREA...FROM E TX AND THE CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE OH VLY...

 

...SYNOPSIS...

AN OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TNGT OVER THE LWR MS

AND LWR TN VLYS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG

TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS.

 

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING W TX SHOULD PIVOT NE ACROSS THE

RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY/EARLY TNGT...AND ACCELERATE NE INTO IL EARLY

SUN...AS LARGE-SCALE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE

PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ASSUME A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE IT

BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY

LATER SUN.

 

AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW

A SWATH OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SURGE NE ACROSS THE LWR MS

VLY INTO MUCH OF THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. COUPLED WITH

THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE UPR IMPULSE...SETUP WILL

BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH DMGG WIND

AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES LATER TODAY INTO TNGT.

 

...WRN/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...

SFC OBS SHOW STRONG/BROAD CURRENT OF VERY MOIST AIR SURGING N FROM

THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ATTM INTO THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF

SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH W TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

NUMEROUS BUOYS REPORT 30 KT SLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F IN AREA

WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES. THE MOIST PLUME WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE

ACROSS THE OH VLY THROUGH EARLY SUN...AND LARGELY DELINEATE THE

NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS

WILL LIMIT DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER MOST

AREAS. BUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL EML

LIKELY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/

FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LWR MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH.

 

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND W OF THE COLD

FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE THROUGH LATER

THIS MORNING AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR

IMPULSE APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR. TOGETHER WITH CONTINUED

MOISTENING OF CONFLUENT LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SETUP ALSO MAY

SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT

OVER FAR E TX...LA...ERN AR...AND MS BY EARLY AFTN.

 

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND NEGATIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE

IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN WIND PROFILES WITH A SLIGHT VEER-BACK PATTERN

IN THE VERTICAL...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD /WITH 60-70 KT 850-700

MB WINDS BENEATH 100 KT FLOW AT 250 MB/ WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE

STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE

STRONG/...SHOULD EXIST OVER PARTS OF LA...AR...MS...AND WRN TN THIS

AFTN/EARLY TNGT.

 

CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD FOSTER

CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL STORMS INTO A FAIRLY

LENGTHY SQLN BY MID-LATE AFTN. ATTENDANT FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP

STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...IN

ADDITION TO A FEW TORNADOES...INTO THE NIGHT FROM WRN/CNTRL KY SSW

THROUGH TN INTO MS...AL...AND LA. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY

WILL DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT...THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL MASS

CONVERGENCE/WAA WILL FOCUS ON THE OH VLY BY LATE EVE. COUPLED WITH

THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELD...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST SFC

DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT PART OF THE FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE OH

VLY...ISOLD TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS FAR N AS

PARTS OF IND...OH...AND WV THROUGH SUN MORNING.

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Hi all, here in Rome (Italy) it's raining. Temperature 11 degrees. Yesterday and Wednesday very cold in the morning. Many Ice on the ground with temperature between 0 and -2 degrees. For the next two days the weather will be good while for Christsman Day and 26th of December will be rainy with snow at 1000 mt.

 

See ice everywhere... It's just wonderful! Well, in the place you are, it's most common to occur than here.... So, it turns more wonderful yet!

 

Good morning Mauricio, I can see often Ice on the ground, garden and in particular over my car in the winter. Roma Tor Vergata is the colder area of Rome. My minimum record is -8,4. Today it's very good, sunny and not cold.

 

Nice record! Here on Brazil this temperatures just occurs on highest lands of south Brazil, annually. Well, it's hard to do less than this, but we have -14ºC registered as lowest temperature on Brazil. But, I think that in the next years it could be breaked, because the new weather station in the city of Urupema, SC can do it! She has nice temperatures registered last 4 years... Let's see...

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Até o momento tivemos poucos tornados reportados, porém as fortes tempestades provocaram uma morte no Mississippi.

Nos estados do Arkansas e Louisiana, há relatos de alguns feridos devido as tempestades.

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Here in Rome, strong instability for 26th and 27th of December. During the evening of 27th of December, we'll have -30 at 500 hPa. It's possible to have strong storms with snow-quote to 900-1000 mt. For me it will be possible to see some graupel during the storms.

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Bom, todo ano ouço falar de 2 a 3 episódios de vento extremo na Europa Ocidental, creio que é uma situação até frequente por aquelas bandas.

É vdd, Artur!

Todos os anos ...

Interessante q essas supertempestades podem ocorrer em qker época.

Formam-se à noroeste do Reino Unido (águas muito kentes para a latitude 60°) e avançam como furacão até a Alemanha ou até a Europa Central.

Kem imagina q o clima nevoento e ameno do noroeste da Europa é tranquilo o ano inteiro, imagina errado.

Aliás é justamente a existência do calor oceânico (q ameniza o clima por lá) o responsável pela ativação das terríveis Baixas q periodicamente avançam pelo continente.

Na imagem, os ventos causados pelo furacão do início do mês na costa alemã...

5a4e895899cb9_017273362_40100-1.jpg.853657ab26cbd67ed58917e849cbc7d7.jpg

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Carlos,

 

O motivo do aquecimento das águas naquela latitude é a bendita corrente do Golfo, que sai das costas americanas e mexicanas, e toma justamente o rumo das ilhas britânicas. Então o calor latente do oceano que causa furacões no Caribe, é o mesmo calor que causa furacões na Inglaterra...Interessante correlação!

 

Lemrbando que este ano olhando as cartas de nebulosidade sobre as águas do Caribe, tivemos mais horas de sol, o que pode se traduzir em águas mais quentes que o normal nas latitudes da Inglaterra.

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Enquanto isso na Inglaterra, um potente Ciclone Extratropical, causa muita chuva e muito vento principalmente sobre o Reino Unido e parte da Ocidental da Europa.

 

7eq.gif

 

Até as 14h30 (Horário de Brasília), as rajadas alcançaram os 165km/h em Cairngorms na Escócia. Em Southampton, o aeroporto registrou 111km/h de rajadas. Em Londres até agora, as rajadas atingiram os 85km/h em Heatrow.

 

Eis o mapa de ventos, combinado com a projeção do modelo, com a baixa de 940hpas.

 

m881.png

 

O METEOALARM, sistema de alertas meteorologicos da Europa, emitiu um alerta Laranja (Uma espécie de nível 3 numa escala de 1 a 4) para as áreas a serem atingindas (Sul da Inglaterra, norte da França e Bélgica) para fortes chuvas e ventos. Abaixo o aviso para Londres.

 

"A spell of heavy rainfall is expected to affect parts of southern England and South Wales during Monday. This will fall onto saturated ground and lead to a risk of some flooding. Gale to severe gale force winds will be an added hazard, with the potential for very strong gusts across coastal areas.The rainfall should clear southeast England on Tuesday morning, with the winds moderating from the west. "

 

Nesse momento Londres (16h55 - local) já de noite, nota-se muita chuva e vento pela webcam na Abbey.

 

5c1m.png

 

Pelo GFS, o Ciclone continuará trazendo muito vento agora a noite para sul da Inglaterra, além do norte da França, Holanda e Bélgica, com rajadas de vento que passam dos 100km/h.

 

lyfd.gif

 

Na manhã da terça, a baixa se desloca mais para norte, e novas rajadas de vento muito fortes devem ser registradas na Escócia. Vento aumenta também na Escandinávia, Dinamarca e Alemanha, França e Espanha.

 

qh0l.gif

 

Em termos de chuva, o ramo frontal do ciclone, poderá trazer bons volumes para o norte de Portugal, podendo alcançar mais de 100mm em 72h. Neve poderá ser vista no norte do Reino Unido.

 

9dh.gif

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