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Rodolfo Alves

Tempo Severo EUA 2021

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Potencial tornadico de 10% hoje.

Um tornado watch está em vigor para AR, LA, OK e TX.

 

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Tivemos 13 tornados confirmados na quarta/quinta (todos fracos - entre EF0 e EF1)

 

Risco moderado hoje por ventos.

 

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Risco moderado para tempo severo hoje sobre partes dos estados de Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississipi e Alabama:

day1otlk_1300_prt.gif.5fed0c04b1873bf53ba6b0aa64cbd40e.gif

 

Probabilidade de granizo:

day1probotlk_1300_hail_prt.gif.a1484bf23deb3c67ce0c997ff1dfb669.gif

 

Probabilidade de tornado:

day1probotlk_1300_torn_prt.gif.761e8dff2cf069bb6dee99221854ddbc.gif

 

Probabilidade de vento:

day1probotlk_1300_wind_prt.gif.35fa5bd317315e85d5693a3600ce079f.gif

 

Dicussão do NOAA indicando alguma possibilidade de derecho:

 This is a complex scenario with an assortment of mesoscale
   possibilities more diverse than the number of models and ensemble
   members available.  Progs somewhat inconsistently depict early
   initiation and evolution of the convection across this region,
   whether near the front in OK (a very plausible consensus theme), on
   the dryline (more isolated/conditional due to strong capping), and
   in the warm sector (highly variable).  Multiple episodes of
   strong-severe thunderstorms may move over any given spot through
   tonight.  This outlook represents both:
   1.  The potential for overlapping areas of severe at different times
   through the day and evening as different areas of convection evolve,
   but also:
   2.  A scenario that most progs reasonably do converge upon despite
   early differences:  a dominant QLCS/MCS evolving out of convection
   initiating in OK and/or northeast TX, then moving east-southeastward
   to southeastward over the Arklatex to Delta regions, organizing a
   well-developed cold pool, and producing a swath of severe wind.

   Whether or not this event will qualify as a derecho is a semantic
   exercise, and likely regulated by mesoscale convective/boundary
   processes yet to become apparent.  Regardless, hurricane-force
   convective gusts are a threat with any such complex, in the Enhanced
   and Moderate areas.  Also, because both the probable QLCS and any
   preceding supercell(s) will encounter an environment of moderate-
   strong buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates around the eastern rim
   of an EML, enlarged low-level hodographs, and favorable vertical
   shear, tornadoes also are expected.  Peak preconvective MLCAPE
   across the warm sector commonly should be in the 2000-3000 J/kg
   range, amidst 40-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes.  As one or more
   MCSs plow cold pools into this environment, they should be
   maintained southeastward toward southern MS/AL tonight, continuing a
   wind-damage and sporadic tornado threat.

 

Mais informações podem ser encontradas em https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

 

 

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Um tornado ao longo da madrugada deixou 7 feridos e causou uma morte na Louisiana.

 

 

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Granizo muito grande em Orange Beach,AL nesta madrugada;

 

De acordo com o RadarOmega os tamanhos ultrapassaram 3" ( ~7.62cm ) e causaram muitos danos

 

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