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IgorTFreitas

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    Monitoramento e Previsão Climática (ENSO/SST/AAO/PDO) 2021

    in Monitoramento e Previsão - América do Sul

    Posted

    E O LA NIÑA CHEGA AO SEU FIM, 67% DE CHANCE DE NEUTRALIDADE DURANTE O VERÃO NO HEMISFÉRIO NORTE

     

    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
    DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
     
    13 May 2021
     

    ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

     

    Synopsis:  La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021).

    During April, the tropical Pacific Ocean returned to ENSO-neutral conditions as the coupling between the atmosphere and ocean weakened. Sea surface temperatures were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the past month [Fig. 1]. The Niño indices have generally trended toward normal during the last several months, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2 region, which was -0.7°C in the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies continued to increase [Fig. 3] due to a downwelling Kelvin wave, which reinforced the positive temperature anomalies along the thermocline [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were weakly present in the east-central Pacific, but were westerly in the far western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies remained westerly across the central and east-central tropical Pacific. Tropical convection became near average around the Date Line in the past month, with suppressed convection evident over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected a return to ENSO-neutral.

    Most of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a continuation of ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2021 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus agrees with this set of models through the summer, and then begins hedging toward cooler conditions as the Northern Hemisphere fall approaches. La Niña chances are around 50-55% during the late fall and winter, which is in alignment with forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System and North American Multi-model Ensemble. However, there is typically large uncertainty with forecasts made in the spring, so confidence in ENSO-neutral for the coming seasons is highest. In summary, La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

    This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 June 2021.

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    Monitoramento e Previsão - Brasil/América do Sul - Maio/2021

    in Monitoramento e Previsão - América do Sul

    Posted · Edited by IgorTFreitas

    MÍNIMAS ABAIXO DE 15ºC NO AMANHECER DE 11/05 NO ES:

     

    Venda Nova do Imigrante* : 9.3ºC

    Alfredo Chaves* : 15.1ºC

    Alegre* : 13.1ºC

    Santa Teresa* : 12.4ºC

    Marilândia* : 14.6ºC

    Nova Venécia* : 14.7ºC

    Alto Rio Novo** : 12.0ºC

    Venda Nova do Imigrante** : 10.3ºC

    Muniz Freire** : 9.1ºC

    Afonso Cláudio** : 8.3ºC

     

    *INMET

    **PARTICULAR

     

    Infelizmente a estação de Marilândia não está funcionando corretamente e provavelmente a mínima foi menor ainda

     

    INTERIOR DE CASTELO COM 6ºC

    Screenshot_214.png.d9d4106794d6b920ae58ef76e1f2a4ca.png

    • Like 14
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    Ciclones Tropicais no Índico e Pacífico Sul/Austrália - 2020/2021

    in Monitoramento de Furacões, Tufões e Ciclones Tropicais

    Posted

    JTWC Boletim:

    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 

    57.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA, YEMEN. 

    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 

    102151Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING 

    WITH CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL 

    CIRCULATION (LLC). A 101730Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED 

    CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN 

    PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE INVEST 92A IS IN AN 

    AREA OF FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 

    ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEER AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 

    SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 

    92A WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER 

    THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 

    AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 

    NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

    • Like 1

    Bate-papo sobre meteorologia, eventos meteorológicos do passado e clima em geral

    in Meteorologia Geral

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bruno D said:

    Dia 03/07: O poderoso Anticiclone agora se encontra, sobre o Leste de SP, Sul de MG e o RJ, com mais de 1036hpa em seu centro. Mínimas extraordinárias são registradas sobre todo o Sudeste Brasileiro, e até mesmo cidades litorâneas de SP e RJ registram geadas. Ao final do dia meteorológico a Alta se dirige ao Mar, entre a dívida de ES e RJ, com poderosos 1038hpa em seu centro, se fundindo com outro Anticiclone ao Sul (Reforço) dando origem a um episódio de Asas, que prolonga o frio por mais 7-10 dias em todo o Sudeste, e Leste do PR e SC. 

    Quanto de frio será que faria aqui em Governador Lindenberg/ES em um evento desses? Na estação do INMET de Marilândia ( municipio bem próximo daqui ) a menor temperatura já registrada foi de 6,7 ºC em 22 de junho de 1976. Será que baixaria dos 5ºC com geada fraca ou até moderada?

    • Like 9

    Ciclones Tropicais no Índico e Pacífico Sul/Austrália - 2020/2021

    in Monitoramento de Furacões, Tufões e Ciclones Tropicais

    Posted

    9 hours ago, PabloMartins said:

    Olha povo, não sei o que o GFS ta querendo fazer no Índico Norte, mas meus olhos estão atentos. Eu NUNCA vi o Índico Norte tão quente em uma região tão ampla, desde que eu monitoro as bacias tropicais (desde 2008-09).  

    Estava reparando uns dias atrás também como o oceano está fervendo por aí, caso se confirme será um landfall bem destrutivo no Omã

    • Like 1
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