Miguel Russe

Um voo de reconhecimento está indo para Gonzalo. AF304 Mission #1 into GONZALO Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm As of 16:41 UTC Jul 24, 2020: Aircraft Position: 10.02°N 54.68°W Bearing: 153° at 268 kt Altitude: 1574 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 31 kt at 80° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1011.0 mb Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): Raw data file Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): Raw data file Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): Raw data file Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge):

Voo de Reconhecimento está em andamento na TS Hanna. Os ventos aumentaram a velocidade.

Será?! Será que termos Hurricane Lane 2.0?!

P.S. Agora ha pouco encontraram 38 kt na parte leste do futuro Hanna.

Eight-L já matou uma criança de 10 anos de idade afogada no Mississipi, segundo algumas fontes americanas. TD 08-L criou um largo eye-feature. Já foram encontrados 1002 mbar, mas não teve registro de ventos de TS. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ NOAA3 Mission #3 into CYCLONE Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm As of 02:12 UTC Jul 24, 2020: Aircraft Position: 25.67°N 92.17°W Bearing: 45° at 162 kt Altitude: 786 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 10 kt at 325° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1008.2 mb Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): Raw data file Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): Raw data file Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): Raw data file Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge):

Glória, Glória, Aleluia!!

Douglas: 125 mph e 959 mbar /\/\ Dorian: 175 mph e 915 mbar

Aaaaaaaaaa pelo amor de Jesus CPHC manda um bendito voo de reconhecimento pra douglas senão vou infartar aaaaaaaaa

Douglas

E qual é a causa, motivo, razão e circunstância (Professor Lingüiça) de você achar justo isso?

Alguém acha justo o NHC manter Douglas como um categoria 3 se o ciclone está assim?

Bom dia rapaziada Aqui está friozinho, com 19°C agora segundo AccuWeather Estou na expectativa de um dia bom hj Vamos ver o que nos vem nos prox. 10 dias frio? calor? neve? Agora vida que segue! Vamos esperar pelo frio! feliz aniversario, @Eclipse! Deus abençoe sempre você e tua familia! fiquei sabendo na pagina inicial do BAZ q era seu niver então vim parabeniza-lo!

Douglas

Douglas agora é major hurricane.... BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 134.0W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 134.0 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

TD Eight tbm se forma no ATL.... Deve fortalecer para TS Hanna.. . BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 88.2W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for much of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 88.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches along the Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

Urgente...... Douglas se intensifica rapidamente a categoria 2....... Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's cloud pattern has improved quickly since the last advisory, with an eye becoming more distinct within an area of cold cloud tops and expanding outflow in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. This is in agreement with the latest SATCON estimate and a blend of the latest ADT and SATCON estimates. The hurricane has another 24 hours or so over SSTs above 28C with very low vertical shear, and rapid intensification appears to be underway. Given the current satellite trends and the SHIPS RII showing a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity increase in 24 h, the NHC forecast has been increased above the guidance in the short term, showing the system peaking at 110 kt in 24 h, although timing the peak intensity during rapid strengthening is quite difficult. By 36 h, SSTs cool along the forecast track but the shear remains low, which should result in gradual weakening. Late in the period, an increase in shear and a drier airmass should result in continued gradual weakening. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The initial motion estimate is now toward the west-northwest or 285/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours under the influence of an expansive mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern North Pacific. The track will turn more toward the west late in the period as Douglas moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 132.6W ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 132.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Douglas is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

Douglas pode já ser atualizado para pelo menos um cat. 3 minimo. Mas acho que o NHC no maximo vai chutar um cat 2 eu acho. Douglas

Errrrooooouuuuu...... Como dizia Faustão em algum programa seu.... Gonzalo continua com 50 mph. Furacão Gonzalo deve ser entre o meio dia e meia noite de amanhã.

Douglas já deve ser um categoria 2:

Hueh Euro prevendo o futuro Hanna com pressão de 994 mbar sobre o Texas e Mexico? I'm confused

Douglas levemente se intensificou. 80 mph e 989 mbar. NHC prevê que Douglas entre em rapida intenficação vire Grande Furacão até amanhã no fim da tarde. Deve atingir o Havaí dentro de 4 dias e desembarcar lá como um categoria 1. “‘warning: não coloquei a atualização de Douglas por que optei colocar a discussão, previsão e cone do Furacão. Thanks”’ Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's structure has continued to improve, with a more well-defined eye becoming apparent in visible and microwave satellite images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from T4.0/65 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT is 4.0. Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 70 kt as a blend of the satellite estimates. The hurricane has begun to gain some latitude, and the initial motion is just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since earlier this morning, with a persistent mid-tropospheric ridge to Douglas's north expected to be the main driving force for the entire 5-day forecast period. Douglas is forecast to turn west-northwestward by this evening, and then maintain that heading with some increase in forward speed through day 4 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. A bend back to the west is then expected at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast lies right along the forecast path from the previous advisory through 60 hours, although it has been shifted slightly north on days 3-5 based on an overall shift of the guidance envelope at those times. Confidence in the track forecast at this stage is rather high. Intensity-wise, low shear and sea surface temperature of 28-29C favor continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate for the next 24 hours. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble all bring the intensity near or at major hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with these models and lies near the upper bound of the guidance envelope given the favorable conditions. Some weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours due to cooler waters, but since vertical shear is not expected to increase until around day 4, the weakening rate is likely to be gradual. This forecast increases the chance that Douglas could maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, and all interests on the islands should monitor the forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII

Outro post de @Felipe F sobre Beryl em 2018. Postado Julho 6, 2018 Baryl se torna o primeiro furacão de 2018. Também é o primeiro furacão em Julho desde 2014.

Felipe F, aqui está uma resposta sua sobre Danny, nos topicos de 2015 Postado Agosto 21, 2015 Danny se fortaleceu para categoria 3, sendo o primeiro ciclone desde Irene em 2011, a se tornar um grande furacão em Agosto. O ciclone já começou a mostrar sinais de enfraquecimento na última hora.

Certo 😀 Danny e Beryl.... (Obs: Caro amigo Felipe F, se vc tiver corretor, tire, antes que algo ruim aconteça. Seu corretor não deixa vc escrever Beryl !) O NHC citou tbm a incerteza na futura intensidade de Gonzalo.

Voo de reconhecimento indo partiu para 91L. Se os dados do voo resultarem em TD, será em 2 dias nomeado Hanna. E se for nomeado Hanna, será a TS que mais cedo se formou com a letra H, superando Harvey de 2005, que se formou no dia 2 de Agosto. Modelo SHIP indica um Furacão da categoria 1 perto de Houston, TX. Acho que isso pode acontecer, pois as aguas do golfo estão fervendo(29-31°C). Invest 91L: