Miguel Russe

Uma area de baixa pressão está um pouco ao norte de Outer Banks, EUA. Pode virar uma SD 11 ou TD 11. Proximo nome é Kyle. Acho q ja é meio-certo o recorde de KATRINA de tempestade com a letra K qie mais cedo se formou ser batido por um ciclone bunda. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. Shower activity has increased in association with a low pressure area located about 100 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Some additional development is possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during that time as the system moves east-northeastward well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average season in terms of named storms, and an average season in terms of both hurricane and major hurricanes.

Movimento no Pacifico. Proximos Nomes no Pacifico Central: Hone e Iona Proximos Nomes no Pacifico Oeste: Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan e Iselle. ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located about 500 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form near or west of the border between the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center areas of responsibility. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward in the central Pacific basin. Future information on this system will be included in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. The Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook is issued under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and is available on the web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac

TD 11L se forma no ATL. Deve virar TS Josephine e batero recorde de 10ª tempestade nomeada que mais cedo se formou na história do Atlantico, batendo o recorde da TS Jose em 2005. 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Elida fortalece a categoria 2. 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 111439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...ELIDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 113.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

Josephine? ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. First-light visible satellite imagery shows that a better-defined center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression as early as later today if these development trends continue. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Elida

Elida virou furacão.

JMA segue ignorando 06W...... JTWC: WTPN32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 147.0E --- JMA

NHC sobe para 40% as chances de um sistema associado a uma onda trooical virar alguma coisa dentro de 48H. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

NHC prevendo rapida intensificação para Elida FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Agora sim que o Pacifico Oeste virou Pacifico Oeste

Movimentoooo.......

Olhando esses modelos, ja e dado como ("meio-certo") a ida de 09E para o status de furacão.

TD 09E se forma. O NHC prevê que se torne furacão Elida, sendo o segundo furacão da trmporada. 305 WTPZ34 KNHC 090236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

NHC avisa que poderá iniciar os avisos para TD 09E. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Recent satellite-derived wind data and satellite images indicate that a tropical depression appears to be forming a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. If this development trend continues, advisories will be initiated this evening or tonight. This system is expected to move west-northwestward over the next few days, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

De acordo com a JMA, 05W virou oficialmente TS Jangmi (Enteng). TS 2005 (Jangmi) Issued at 19:20 UTC, 8 August 2020 <Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 August> Scale - Intensity - Center position N21°00' (21.0°) E126°05' (126.1°) Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (16 kt) Central pressure 1000 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt) ≥ 30 kt wind area SE 460 km (250 NM) NW 220 km (120 NM)

Uma tropical wave deve se formar e virar TS Elida. ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system located more than 200 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better defined since yesterday. Thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward, remaining well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

TD 05W se forma. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 126.3E

TCFA 94W (Jangmi) WTPN21 PGTW 072130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 126.4E TO 25.6N 126.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. A 071716Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. A 071309Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND AND A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REMAINING HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 082130Z.//

Uma Tropical Wave está no ATL. NHC não espera nenhum desenvolvimento do sistema devido as condições ruins. Talvez o sistema possa virar *no máximo* uma fraca TD 11. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

94W está em atividade no Pacífico Oeste. O sistema já é reconhecido como TD Enteng, sem a PAGASA ter o nomeado oficialmente. Deve virar Jangmi dentro de 3/4 dias e se tornar um forte e largo tufão. ABPW10 PGTW 071230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071230Z-080600ZAUG2020// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071025Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 18- 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Histórico! _Extremely_active'_hurricane_season_possible_for_Atlantic_Basin_|_National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration.67d71973345b5b7b6322fc2a31631a1b

Xiiiiii......

GFS prevendo um forte furacão sobre o mar do caribe e golfo do mexico para os prox 20 DIAS!!!!!! Se o ATL teve 6 sistemas em julho, vai ter 1 sistema e so no fim de Agosto?! aqui está a previsão e perdões pela minha loucura haha