Miguel Russe

Desorganizada essa saida

Genevieve continua se intensificando Tropical Storm Watch foi emitido para a ponta sul da Baja California Peninsula, México. NHC vai emitir o primeiro aviso intermediato dentro de 3 horas. 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 172037 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 ...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 104.6W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja peninsula from Los Barriles on the east coast to Todos Santos on the west coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tmj!

Genevieve segue ganhando força, e pode ir para a categoria 2 ainda hoje: ep122020 GENEVIEVE 20200817 1715 14.62 -103.61 E HU 70.0 992.0 16.3 298.53

Gloria a Deus!

As cores do interior de SP cmbinambinam com o que passo aqui. Estação daqui de minha cidade reportou hoje perto das 06:00 da manhã uma temperatura minima de 8,4C. Essa provavelmente foi a primeira sub-10 que vi aqui em todo esse ano😂

GFS indicando que a onda tropical que atualmente sai da africa vai virar um forte furacão atingindo o sul do TX

Concordo... Desde que percebi que as iniciais de Genevieve e Patricia são parecidas, meu cerebro so fala que Genevieve terá até uns 165 mph... Mas, quem sabe, né?

NHC mudou previsão e fala em um categoria 4 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 12.4N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 13.4N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 14.8N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 17.7N 110.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 19.1N 111.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 20.4N 112.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 22.7N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 24.7N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

As condições do mar sul chinês estão boas para suportar essa previsão das 18Z do HWRF para a Invest 99W? 114 kt (130 mph) e 944 mbar

Cenário confuso do CMC em relação a 97L :

Ola querido amigos! Eu estou passando pela tarde mais fria do mes (aqui em minha cidade) ate aqui: 25°C.... O que temos aqui? Friozinho... Nublagem... Muitas Jabuticabas😊😋...

A tradução para quem não entendeu: ---------- O EURO acionou esse botão. Conjuntos aqui do weathernerds.org para a segunda-feira seguinte mostram alguns locais para assistir. GFS bem menos agressivo agora. O tempo coincide com o pulso MJO que temos mostrado. Está prestes a acontecer quando entramos em nosso mês de pico de setembro. # 1 é um low rider. Oeste ou eventual curva para cima muito cedo para dizer. NHC a 30%. # 2 é aquela grande onda que atingiu a África. Ele poderia desenvolver um bom suporte de conjunto. O tempo seria próximo a Les ser Antilles no próximo fim de semana. NHC a 30%. # 3 é outra onda vindo da África pela estrada. Estarei ao vivo mais tarde esta noite, depois de todos os modelos de dias rodarem.

Previsão e discussão do NHC para 12E: 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161445 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has increased and become better organized overnight and this morning. In fact, bands of convection can be seen in both visible and infrared satellite imagery around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are a consensus 2.0, which supports an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression lies within a very favorable environment for strengthening. These conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 48-60 hours. Since the system is still in its organizational stage, intensification is likely to be a little more tempered today, but given these very favorable conditions a period of rapid strengthening is anticipated to begin by Monday and continue into Tuesday. The statistical guidance and dynamical hurricane models are quite bullish on deepening, as are the global models. The SHIPS RI index is showing a 64 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in wind speed over the next 72 hours. Since nearly all of the intensity guidance is calling for a rather rapid increase in strength, this gives relatively high confidence that the system will become a hurricane in a day or two, and likely become a major hurricane within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP correct consensus models. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. A strong deep layer ridge of high pressure over the western United States should steer the cyclone on a steady west-northwestward heading over the next several days. The guidance suggests that there will be some reduction in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest later in the period as an upper-level low/trough retrogrades westward well west of the Baja California peninsula. For the first advisory package, the dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered and the NHC track lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model. Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico, large swell generated by the strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 11.3N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 11.9N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 12.9N 102.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 15.9N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.5N 109.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.2N 111.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.8N 117.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

TD 12E se forma. É prevista pelo NHC e outros demais modelos para virar um forte furacão. 709 WTPZ32 KNHC 161444 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY ON MONDAY WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 97.3W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 97.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move parallel to but well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Rapid strengthening is anticipated on Monday, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday afternoon or Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Segundo tropical tidbits, 11E será nomeado Fausto em breve. Tropical Storm FAUSTO As of 12:00 UTC Aug 16, 2020: Location: 20.2°N 119.0°W Maximum Winds: 35 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb Radius of Circulation: 200 nm Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop): Advertisement: Official Forecast (click to enlarge):

hmmmmm ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Advisories are also being issued on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have continued to become better organized overnight, and it appears that a tropical depression or storm is forming. If these development trends continue, advisories will be issued on this system this morning. The low is expected to move generally west-northwestward, well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

GFS de acordo que 95E será um grande furacão. 114 mph 953 mbar

Wow...... HWRF-P PREVÊ QUE 95E SEJA NOMEADO GENEVIEVE E SEJA UM CATEGORIA 5!!!!! 160 MPH E 937 MBAR!!!!

Glória Deus, frioooo!!!! Sexta feira promete aqui. 21sex 11° 19° 0% Sol e aumento de nuvens de manhã. Pancadas de chuva à tarde e à noite. Madrugada Manhã Tarde Noite TEMPERATURA 11°19° CHUVA 1mm - 0% VENTO SSW - 21km/h UMIDADE 58°97° ARCO-ÍRIS Alta probabilid. SOL 06:41 - 18:12 LUA Minguante

Se um Tornado EF0 causa isso aqui no Brasil, imagine o que poderia causar um EF5!

Uma area de baixa pressão está ativa no CPAC. As condições seguem melhorando, o que deve ajudar a formar uma TS Hone. ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2020 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: 1. An area of low pressure is located around 550 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Shower and thunderstorm activity with the feature has persisted over the past six hours. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development during the next few days and a tropical depression may form later this weekend or early next week as the system moves steadily west at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Wow.....

Eeeeee macarena Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Aug 2020 20:21 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Kyle, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, at 5 pm EDT (2100 UTC).

Voo de Reconhecimento em Josephine AF301 Mission #1 into JOSEPHINE Type: Unknown | Status: En Route As of 15:36 UTC Aug 14, 2020: Aircraft Position: 17.85°N 63.18°W Bearing: 90° at 343 kt Altitude: 7445 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 8 kt at 121° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): Raw data file Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): Raw data file Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): Raw data file Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge):