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Miguel Russe

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Everything posted by Miguel Russe

  1. Tópico para Monitoramento de Tufões no Pacífico Oeste - 2020 ======================================================================================================================== Informações Básicas: Período: Ano Todo (Maior atividade entre Maio e Outubro) Cobertura: Entre 100 Graus Leste a 180 Graus Oeste (Limite da Linha Internacional de Data) Órgão Responsável por Monitorar: Agência Meteorologica do Japão - JMA (Toda Bacia); PAGASA (para as Filipinas), além do JTWC para interesses dos EUA. Sufixo para INVEST: "W" Classificação de Fases: Depressão Tropical (Até 64km/h); Tempestade Tropical (64 a 117km/h) [somente para o JMA - Tempestade Tropical Severa (89 a 117km/h)]; Tufão (118 a 240km/h); [somente para o JTWC - Super Tufão (240km/h ou mais)]. ========================================================================================================================== Nessa bacia, há uma lista rotatória de nomes dados pelos países da região mais os EUA, sem definição por anos. Próximos nomes internacionais para o Pacífico Oeste adotados pelo JTWC: Vongfong Nuri Sinlaku Hagupit Jangmi Mekkhala Higos Bavi Maysak Haishen Noul Dolphin Kujira Chan-hom Linfa Nangka Saudel Molave Goni Atsani Etau Vamco  Krovanh Dujuan Surigae Choi-wan Koguma Champi (MENSAGEM EDITADA PELA ADMINISTRAÇÃO, PARA REALOCAÇÃO DA INTRODUÇÃO DO TÓPICO) ======================================================================================================================== Está aberta a temporada de tufões no pacifico. Ambo se formou ontem a noite e pode virar uma TS amanhã ou outro dia. Não dá p descartar a chance de um tufão, ja que o ciclone esta em codições favoraveis e uma breve intensificação para tufão pode acontecer.
  2. JMA considera 98W como TD, segundo a wikipedia. 1-min: 20 mph 10-min:35 mph Pressão: 1008 mbar.
  3. Depois de uma calmaria disgraçada, 99W finalmente é monitorada. Modelos indicam uma fraca TD. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112200Z-120600ZJUL2020// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.2N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION ROTATING ABOUT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS PLACED BASED ON A 112022Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE THAT DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A 111800Z RJTD FIX POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
  4. Fay virou pós tropical, segundo o NHC. Cristina enfraqueceu depois de 2 dias consecutivos como um quasi-cat.1 98E está na costa sul do mexico, e deve virar uma TD ou TS aproveitando das aguas quentes. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. A broad low pressure system that has developed southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for the formation of a tropical depression in two to three days while the system moves quickly westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
  5. Fay está com raízes extratropicais. Tem ventos de 60 mph e 999 mbar. Enquanto o Fay de 2020 é do começo de Julho, O Fay de 2014 é de Outubro, porém mais forte😂
  6. NHC deve atualizar cristina para um furacão em breve.
  7. NHC emitiu Tropical Storm Warning para as regiões de Nova York. Fay deve ser a tormenta mais forte a atingir NY desde Sandy em 2012. NHC porojeta um landfall de 50 mph.
  8. Voo de reconhecimemto continua em 98L. Já encontraram ventos de tempestade tropical. rota do voo de reconhecimento até agora:
  9. NHC mandou um voo de reconhecimento há pouco p investigar 98L.
  10. Apocalipse! Coronavirus, muito furacão, peste negra na mongolia, ciclones no sul do BR...
  11. Pacífico está parado desde Nuri. Acredito que nos confins de Julho o pacífico dará um forte boom. As aguas estão fervendo, com SST chegando a 32°C!!! Em minhas expectativas, e que Sinlaku seja entre as cat4 e 5 e Hagupit entre 1 e 2. Cisalhamento, shear e ar seco estão afetando gravemente a formação de tufões lá.
  12. No Pacífico, temos Cristina que segue se intensificando. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
  13. 98L acaba de reemergir no mar. Aguas das carolinas estão nos 29 graus. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
  14. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
  15. Também lancei minha previsão! Atlântico: Tormentas Tropicais:- 22 ( contando as 5 que ja tiveram ) Furacões: 10 Grandes Furacões: 7 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 203 Pacifico Leste e Central: Tormentas Tropicais: 18 ( contando as 3 que ja tiveram ) Furacões: 11 Grandes Furacões: 8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 278 Pacífico Oeste: Tormentas Tropicais: 27 ( contando as 2 que tiveram ) Tufões: 18 Super Tufões: 8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 308 Edit: se acharem exageradas minhas previsões, fiquem tranquilos! Pois apenas 2 vezes que quase aceitei alguma previsão!
  16. Gostaria de apostar que Julho seja 47% acima da média, com neve mediana em certos lugares como Urupema, São Joaquim e Gramado. Acho que Agosto tem chances de judiar menos da gente, 2 massas de ar frio 15 - 17% mais fraca do é visto geralmente, com chances de chegar um pouco mais a norte de BH, numa linha decresente até o centro do estado do RJ. (Achei q fosse melhor colocar com detalhes, talkey?)
  17. Cristina segue como uma fraca TS com a mesma força de ontem (65 km/h e 29.68 inhg)depois de sofrer com o ar seco e um pouco de shear, mais já está se reorganizando depois de passar a madrugada com o centro exposto. Mas, 98L está se organizando de uma maneira rara, pois já está com um aspecto de uma boa TD teria no mar. O NHC aumentou as chances de formação de 48h para 30%. 5D segue com os 40%. ropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Georgia continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern U.S. The low is expected to move generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states and some development of this system is possible later this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky
  18. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 101.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 101.3 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
  19. Na última saída, os demais modelos preveem categoria 1, 2 e até mesmo categoria 3! Exemplo de Modelo que prevê um cat. 3 é um tal de Ship Ensembles
  20. Mas, até a cortesia de Levi Cowan - Tropical Tidbits - estima que Five-E seja uma TS. Tropical Storm FIVEAs of 00:00 UTC Jul 07, 2020: Location: 10.9°N 100.8°WMaximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan ktMinimum Central Pressure: 1005 mbEnvironmental Pressure: 1010 mbRadius of Circulation: 120 NMRadius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant: 0 NM 30 NM 0 NM 30 NM Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop): Advertisement: Official NHC Forecast (click to enlarge):
  21. Impressão minha ou vc leu meu corpo? Kkkkklk e ansiedade msm heheh
  22. Julho, não nos decepcione! Traga os queridos -15°C p nos! E falando em frio, queria saber pq faz calor aqui no interior do estado de SP. GFS e EURO previam há 15 dias que iria fzr muito frio, mas tem tchum de 18°C. No momento, registro 23,8°C.
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