Previsão para a temporada de furacões de 2009 no Atlântico Norte, do Accuweather. Diminui o número de sistemas mas alguns podem ter forte impacto!
AccuWeather.com 2009 Hurricane Forecast
"This year takes one major hurricane hitting a highly populated area to have devastating impact." ("Este ano há grande probabilidade de um furacão atingir uma zona densamente povoada e ter impacto devastador.")
"Early indications show a reduction in the overall number of named storms and of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin compared to last year, but the number of storms should still be near or a little above normal."
Bastardi points to several factors influencing the forecast, including:
1. The weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean will dissipate. A reverse to a weak El Nino, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is most likely in the middle to latter part of the hurricane season.
2. The expected orientation of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last year. This will result in increased dust and dry air being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate.
3. Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic, a typical breeding ground for hurricanes, which can reduce hurricane activity and intensity. This may create a season in which storms are reaching a greater intensity farther north and east than last year, leading to less impact in the Caribbean areas hit hard last year.
4. A continuing multi-decadal pattern of higher-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic, raising the chance of major storms near the East Coast until about 2020.
Based on these and other considerations, Bastardi has made the following specific forecasts for overall numbers and types of storms during the 2009 season as seen on the image above.
Joe Bastardi regularly writes for the AccuWeather.com Professional site, AccuWeather.com Energy Pro, and for private clients.