This heatmap shows that ECMWF is very confident on at least a moderate strength El Niño by September: all 51 ensemble members have an anomaly of +1.0˚C (🔴).
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) April 7, 2023
The ensemble max is +2.7˚C (!) & min is +1.1˚C, meaning the range of possibilities is a moderate El Niño to "Super" Niño. pic.twitter.com/fXYDpW8ayT