Jump to content
Brasil Abaixo de Zero

Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste/Central - 2025

Rodolfo Alves
 Share

Recommended Posts

André PV Rising Star

André PV

Posted
Posted
Em 27/10/2025 em 14:48, Renan disse:

Tem alguma chance desse monstro NÃO FAZER landfall na Jamaica?

Ontem eu vi no X alguns modelos indicando que ele poderia se mover mais a oeste do que previsto anteriormente, perdendo a Jamaica na trajetória. Porém o NHC discorda totalmente, com razão, e o cone de incerteza praticamente não abrange essa possibilidade.

 

Screenshot_20251027-151552.Chrome.thumb.png.f8c3fefd40926cedcb9e72441ef8e09a.png

 

Atualmente, visualmente, ele se move no sentido noroeste e a hora de virar pra norte é estimada para acontecer agora ou daqui a pouco, então veremos.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 116
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Front
Front

Melissa atravessando a Jamaica  

Guibuck1
Guibuck1

890 😵

Tavares
Tavares

902.8 Mb.  Estrutura nível Haiyan.

Posted Images

André PV Rising Star

André PV

Posted
Posted
Citar 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin tonight and continue into Tuesday. Within the
eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher
elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of
hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

 

Isso se Melissa de fato fizer landfall na Jamaica, o que no momento é realmente... questionável.

 

SmartSelect_20251027_201653_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4dbdf1f168f47de36af369b232e395e2.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tavares Mentor

Tavares

Posted
Posted
Em 27/10/2025 em 20:22, André PV disse:

Isso se Melissa de fato fizer landfall na Jamaica, o que no momento é realmente... questionável.

Por incrível que pareça, li meteorologistas dizendo que se o olho de Melissa passasse a oeste da Jamaica seria um cenário pior do que um landfall direto e fiz um monte de cálculo mental pra buscar lógica nisso. 

 

Aliás pelo satélite, Melissa já está mais a oeste do que o ponto mais ocidental da Jamaica. 

image.thumb.png.0d625b33b399bad1b5375f846617744b.png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tavares Mentor

Tavares

Posted
Posted
Em 27/10/2025 em 21:13, Renan disse:

Será que o milagre vai acontecer?

Tem questões de interação de ciclones com massas de terra, relevo, gradiente de temperatura entre o mar e o solo que os modelos não pegam.

Teve um tufão esse ano no Pacífico que deu a ré antes de atingir a Formosa, sem brincadeira. Muitos modelos não estavam prevendo isso mas os meteorologistas sim. Nem tudo é cálculo, o feeling do cientista ainda é definitivo em muitos casos. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted 
Huracán Melissa Ciclón Tropical Actualización
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL132025
900 AM EDT martes 28 de octubre de 2025

...LOS CAZADORES DE HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AÉREA
ENCUENTRAN MELISSA MÁS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE EL OJO DEL NORTE SE ESTÁ
ACERCANDO A LA COSTA SUR DE JAMAICA...
...900 AM EDT ACTUALIZACIÓN DE POSICIÓN...

El ojo de Melissa se está acercando a la costa sur de Jamaica y se
espera que toque tierra dentro de las próximas horas.Esta es una
situación extremadamente peligrosa y que amenaza la vida. ¡Tome
medidas ahora para proteger su vida! Los residentes en la Jamaica no
deben dejar su refugio ya que los vientos aumentarán rápidamente
dentro de la pared del ojo de Melissa. Permanezca en el lugar durante
el paso de estas condiciones que amenazan la vida.

Un avión Cazahuracán de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea ha encontrado
que Melissa se está fortaleciendo con vientos máximos sostenidos de
180 mph (290 km/h). La presión central mínima estimada basada en datos
de aeronaves ha caído a 896 mb (26.47 pulgadas).

Se proporcionará otra actualización de posición a las 1000 AM EDT
(1400 UTC).

RESUMEN DE 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN...17.6N 78.1W
ALREDEDOR DE 50 MI...80 KM SSE DE NEGRIL JAMAICA
ALREDEDOR DE 260 MI...420 KM SW DE GUANTANAMO CUBA
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...180 MPH...290 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NNE O 20 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...896 MB...26.47 PULGADAS
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Felipe F Grand Master

Felipe F

Posted
Posted (edited)

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

Edited by Felipe F
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
André L P Souza Proficient

André L P Souza

Posted
Posted

URGENTE!

 

892 HPA DE PRESSÃO ATMOSFÉRICA E VENTOS SUSTENTADOS DE APROXIMADAMENTE 295 KM/H.

ESTE É O DADO DIVULGADO AGORA HÁ POUCO PELA NOAA DO FURACÃO MELISSA. SUPEROU MILTON COMO O FURACÃO MAIS FORTE DA DÉCADA. 

 

000 WTNT33 KNHC 281458 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Corrected Tropical Storm Warning section to add Turks and Caicos ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Camaguey. The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb (26.34 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
André L P Souza Proficient

André L P Souza

Posted
Posted

MELISSA CATASTRÓFICO!

 

Tive que interromper momentaneamente meus estudos em meteorologia para acompanhar este monstro.

Este é considerado senhoras e senhores o segundo furacão mais forte do século, perdendo apenas para o Wilma de 2005 que registrou 882 hPa. Furacão extremamente tardio e que retrata exatamente os efeitos do fenômeno climático La Niña (Atualmente em curso) e o efeito estufa descontrolado.

Mais infornações sobre ele em instantes.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
André L P Souza Proficient

André L P Souza

Posted
Posted

URGENTE!

 

ÚLTIMO BOLETIM DA NOAA SOBRE O FURACÃO MELISSA INFORMA QUE O OLHO JÁ ATINGE A COSTA SUDOESTE DA JAMAICA.

 

000 WTNT63 KNHC 281558 TCUAT3 Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...MELISSA'S EYE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA... ...STAY IN YOUR SHELTER... ...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC), or as needed for landfall. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 78.0W ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tavares Mentor

Tavares

Posted
Posted
Em 28/10/2025 em 14:52, RafaelBHZ disse:

A impressão que tenho assistindo essas lives ao vivo é que a Jamaica está resistindo bem. Maioria das estruturas e árvores estão se mantendo de pé. Espero não estar enganado...

Eu escrevi a mesma coisa logo após o tufão Haiyan vendo as primeiras imagens na rede social. 

  • Like 6
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LeoP Grand Master

LeoP

Posted
Posted (edited)

pessoal, eu não costumo acompanhar furacões e entendo pouco disso então pergunto aos especialistas:

 

vento sustentado é aquele constante em determinado período, que independe de rajadas pontuais, certo? então, os vídeos que eu vi até agora do furacão não parecem ser de ventos da ordem de 300 km/h, alguns inclusive lembram o início de algumas tempestades de verão aqui no Brasil, com velocidade estimada (pelo movimento das árvores) em 70/100 km/h. vídeos recentes de microexplosões até já me impressionaram mais.

 

essa métrica é apenas em determinado ponto do sistema e por isso os vídeos não registram? ou esses valores não se referem à superfície, mas em algum ponto mais alto da atmosfera? talvez, ainda, esses ventos não são registrados porque nenhuma estrutura suportaria...

 

Alguém sabe explicar isso?

Edited by LeoP
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jayvillao Grand Master

jayvillao

Posted
Posted
Em 28/10/2025 em 17:46, LeoP disse:

pessoal, eu não costumo acompanhar furacões e entendo pouco disso então pergunto aos especialistas:

 

vento sustentado é aquele constante em determinado período, que independe de rajadas pontuais, certo? então, os vídeos que eu vi até agora do furacão não parecem ser de ventos da ordem de 300 km/h, alguns inclusive lembram o início de algumas tempestades de verão aqui no Brasil, com velocidade estimada (pelo movimento das árvores) em 70/100 km/h. vídeos recentes de microexplosões até já me impressionaram mais.

 

essa métrica é apenas em determinado ponto do sistema e por isso os vídeos não registram? ou esses valores não se referem à superfície, mas em algum ponto mais alto da atmosfera? talvez, ainda, esses ventos não são registrados porque nenhuma estrutura suportaria...

 

Alguém sabe explicar isso?

 

O olho do furacão é onde existe uma calmaria, porém aí redor do olho estão os ventos mais fortes. A área de vento depende de cada tempestade, geralmente quanto mais forte também maior a área de vento. 

 

Sobre vento sustentado, da Wikipedia:

Muitas agências meteorológicas seguem a recomendação da Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM), que define o vento máximo sustentado como a média das medidas da velocidade do vento em 10 minutos, a 10 m acima da superfície do oceano. No entanto, as instituições estadunidenses utilizam os valores do vento máximo sustentado num intervalo de 1 minuto.[1][2]

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Renan Grand Master

Renan

Posted
Posted
Em 28/10/2025 em 17:46, LeoP disse:

pessoal, eu não costumo acompanhar furacões e entendo pouco disso então pergunto aos especialistas:

 

vento sustentado é aquele constante em determinado período, que independe de rajadas pontuais, certo? então, os vídeos que eu vi até agora do furacão não parecem ser de ventos da ordem de 300 km/h, alguns inclusive lembram o início de algumas tempestades de verão aqui no Brasil, com velocidade estimada (pelo movimento das árvores) em 70/100 km/h. vídeos recentes de microexplosões até já me impressionaram mais.

 

essa métrica é apenas em determinado ponto do sistema e por isso os vídeos não registram? ou esses valores não se referem à superfície, mas em algum ponto mais alto da atmosfera? talvez, ainda, esses ventos não são registrados porque nenhuma estrutura suportaria...

 

Alguém sabe explicar isso?

 

As imagens que mais me impressionaram até hoje em relação a ventos extremos são as do Tufão Haiyan. Essas rajadas, sim, passam dos 200km/h fácil.

 

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
André L P Souza Proficient

André L P Souza

Posted
Posted

URGENTE!

 

VENTOS SUSTENTADOS CAEM E PRESSÃO ATMOSFÉRICA DO MELISSA ESTÁ SUBINDO, ENTRETANTO O PERIGO EXTREMO CONTINUA POIS ELE AINDA É UM FURACÃO DE CATEGORIA 4.

 

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN JAMAICA... ...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents should seek safe shelter. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be completed later tonight. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa will move away from western Jamaica this evening. After that, the center is expected to move over southeastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it could still be a major hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Melissa this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Damaging winds will continue across portions of Jamaica through this evening, especially in mountainous areas. Remain in a safe shelter in Jamaica through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across eastern Cuba, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24 inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches is expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level. Storm surge flooding on the southern coast of Jamaica should subside tonight. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Guidelines.

  I accept