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IgorTFreitas

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  1. RISCO MODERADO PARA HOJE 10% PARA TORNADO 30% PARA VENTO 45% PARA GRANIZO
  2. Por aqui mínima de 15.9ºC, no momento faz 26.6ºC, bate uma tristeza ver uma previsão dessa pros próximos dias
  3. Bom dia, por aqui tivemos mínima de 17°C, no momento faz 22.4°C - 77% UR com céu nublado, pros próximos dias alguns sites resolveram colocar forte calor pra cá com máximas podendo chegar aos 34°C ( espero que seja só mais uma loucura do modelo e que não faça esse calor todo )
  4. Quase 1 mês sem uma boa chuva, apenas valores de 2.5mm ou menos e bem localizado GFS pros próximos 15 dias não está nada animador, apenas pro sul do ES acumulados de chuva melhores
  5. E O LA NIÑA CHEGA AO SEU FIM, 67% DE CHANCE DE NEUTRALIDADE DURANTE O VERÃO NO HEMISFÉRIO NORTE EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 May 2021 ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory Synopsis: La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021). During April, the tropical Pacific Ocean returned to ENSO-neutral conditions as the coupling between the atmosphere and ocean weakened. Sea surface temperatures were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the past month [Fig. 1]. The Niño indices have generally trended toward normal during the last several months, except for the easternmost Niño-1+2 region, which was -0.7°C in the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies continued to increase [Fig. 3] due to a downwelling Kelvin wave, which reinforced the positive temperature anomalies along the thermocline [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were weakly present in the east-central Pacific, but were westerly in the far western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies remained westerly across the central and east-central tropical Pacific. Tropical convection became near average around the Date Line in the past month, with suppressed convection evident over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected a return to ENSO-neutral. Most of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a continuation of ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2021 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus agrees with this set of models through the summer, and then begins hedging toward cooler conditions as the Northern Hemisphere fall approaches. La Niña chances are around 50-55% during the late fall and winter, which is in alignment with forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System and North American Multi-model Ensemble. However, there is typically large uncertainty with forecasts made in the spring, so confidence in ENSO-neutral for the coming seasons is highest. In summary, La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 June 2021.
  6. MÍNIMAS ABAIXO DE 15ºC NO AMANHECER DE 11/05 NO ES: Venda Nova do Imigrante* : 9.3ºC Alfredo Chaves* : 15.1ºC Alegre* : 13.1ºC Santa Teresa* : 12.4ºC Marilândia* : 14.6ºC Nova Venécia* : 14.7ºC Alto Rio Novo** : 12.0ºC Venda Nova do Imigrante** : 10.3ºC Muniz Freire** : 9.1ºC Afonso Cláudio** : 8.3ºC *INMET **PARTICULAR Infelizmente a estação de Marilândia não está funcionando corretamente e provavelmente a mínima foi menor ainda INTERIOR DE CASTELO COM 6ºC
  7. JTWC Boletim: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 57.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA, YEMEN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 102151Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 101730Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE INVEST 92A IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEER AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
  8. Quanto de frio será que faria aqui em Governador Lindenberg/ES em um evento desses? Na estação do INMET de Marilândia ( municipio bem próximo daqui ) a menor temperatura já registrada foi de 6,7 ºC em 22 de junho de 1976. Será que baixaria dos 5ºC com geada fraca ou até moderada?
  9. GFS está prevendo mais de 500mm para certos pontos do Oman, onde chove em média anualmente um pouco mais de 100mm
  10. Estava reparando uns dias atrás também como o oceano está fervendo por aí, caso se confirme será um landfall bem destrutivo no Omã
  11. Bastante chuva na região de Guarapari/ES nas últimas 24h, por aqui até o momento só vento
  12. Para cá a cada rodada os modelos indicam mais frio, pro amanhecer de terça e quarta a maioria indica mínimas de 14-15ºC AccuWeather e GEM são os mais extremos indicando mínimas de 11-12ºC
  13. GFS continua insistindo em uma tempestade tropical pro fim de semana Wind Shear na região continua baixo ( 5 a 20 kts ) Temperatura do oceano entre 27-30ºC
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