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Posts posted by edsr97
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WTNT80 EGRR 171611
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.02.2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7S 39.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.02.2024 24.7S 39.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.02.2024 24.9S 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.02.2024 26.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.02.2024 27.8S 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.02.2024 29.8S 41.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 40.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.02.2024 31.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.02.2024 33.3S 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UKMET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
TOO 171611
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Estão destacando as águas mais quentes do que o normal e o baixo cisalhamento, seguimos monitorando- 6
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WTNT80 EGRR 170411
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.02.2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6S 39.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.02.2024 24.6S 39.9W WEAK
12UTC 17.02.2024 24.4S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.02.2024 25.1S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.02.2024 26.1S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.02.2024 27.7S 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.02.2024 30.1S 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.02.2024 31.9S 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.02.2024 31.9S 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.02.2024 32.2S 40.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.02.2024 32.1S 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.02.2024 32.7S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.02.2024 33.3S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.02.2024 34.1S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UKMET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
TOO 170411
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Em 16/02/2024 em 12:03, Rodolfo Alves disse:
METSUL AGRESSIVA
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Em 16/02/2024 em 07:57, Caio César disse:
Em atenção ao sistema que segundo a marinha já ganhou status de Depressão Subtropical 01/2024, a última rodada do modelo Europeu foi a mais interessante de todas.
Diferentemente dos outros modelos optou por uma trajetória impressionantemente parecida com a do Catarina até um certo momento, tangenciando a costa do RS antes de desviar, mas ainda sem um clássico landfall.
Vejam como o sistema carrega temperaturas mais elevadas em 500mb.
Em 700mb fica evidente o centro quente, denotando características tropicais e um aparente olho quente bem formado no final do ciclo
Assim como o Europeu, pelo ICON também é possível observar o sistema bem formado e com centro quente, o que poderia tornar a classificação para um sistema tropical.
DIAGRAMA DE FASE DO GFS 00Z, MAIS UMA VEZ CORROBORANDO COM UM POTENCIAL PARA TRANSIÇÃO EM CICLONE TROPICAL.
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Em 16/02/2024 em 07:11, Caio César disse:
Em atenção ao sistema que segundo a marinha já ganhou status de Depressão Subtropical 01/2024, a última rodada do modelo Europeu foi a mais interessante de todas.
Diferentemente dos outros modelos optou por uma trajetória impressionantemente parecida com a do Catarina até um certo momento, tangenciando a costa do RS antes de desviar, mas ainda sem um clássico landfall.
Vejam como o sistema carrega temperaturas mais elevadas em 500mb.
Em 700mb fica evidente o centro quente, denotando características tropicais e um aparente olho quente bem formado no final do ciclo
Assim como o Europeu, pelo ICON também é possível observar o sistema bem formado e com centro quente, o que poderia tornar a classificação para um sistema tropical.
Vamos acompanhar!
Tem forum específico para isso, post muito bom, bota la por gentileza!
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Em 15/02/2024 em 16:11, edsr97 disse:
NOAA ATENTA
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/tropical/
METOFFICE TAMBÉM
WTNT80 EGRR 151613
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.02.2024
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 23.2S 39.9WVERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.02.2024 23.6S 39.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.02.2024 24.0S 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.02.2024 25.2S 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.02.2024 25.5S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.02.2024 26.6S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.02.2024 27.9S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.02.2024 30.2S 38.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.02.2024 32.8S 37.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.02.2024 32.5S 37.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.02.2024 32.9S 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UKMET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
Pequeno update
METOFFICE:
326
WTNT80 EGRR 160412MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.02.2024
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 22.9S 40.0WVERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.02.2024 21.4S 39.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.02.2024 23.7S 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.02.2024 24.5S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.02.2024 25.5S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.02.2024 27.0S 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.02.2024 28.4S 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.02.2024 30.3S 41.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.02.2024 31.5S 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.02.2024 32.2S 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 43.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.02.2024 33.4S 43.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.02.2024 34.7S 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.02.2024 34.4S 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UKMET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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Há um fator crítico na evolução desse sistema e que é matador para os ciclones que se formam no Atântico Sul: Cisalhamento (SHEAR). É praticamente um sistema de proteção natural contra ciclones tropicais para que eles não se formarem por aqui com maior frequência por aqui
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Em 15/02/2024 em 20:25, Rodolfo Alves disse:
Conforme dito pelo colega Rodolfo o diagrama de fase do GFS 18z segue mantendo o cenário de ciclone que nasce subtropical e adquire características tropicais como núcleo quente, profundo e simétrico em todos os níveis (vermelho/vermelho)
Alguns dias de passeio sobre águas acima de 26°C
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NOAA ATENTA
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/tropical/
METOFFICE TAMBÉM
WTNT80 EGRR 151613
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.02.2024
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 23.2S 39.9WVERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.02.2024 23.6S 39.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.02.2024 24.0S 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.02.2024 25.2S 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.02.2024 25.5S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.02.2024 26.6S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.02.2024 27.9S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.02.2024 30.2S 38.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.02.2024 32.8S 37.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.02.2024 32.5S 37.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.02.2024 32.9S 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UKMET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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Monitoramento e Previsão - Ciclones Subtropicais/Tropicais no Atlântico Sul
in Monitoramento e Previsão - América do Sul
Posted