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Brasil Abaixo de Zero

edsr97

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Everything posted by edsr97

  1. Segue a luta feroz contra a entrada de muito ar seco no interior da circulação. Centro da baixa está novamente exposto.
  2. WTNT80 EGRR 171611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.02.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7S 39.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.02.2024 24.7S 39.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.02.2024 24.9S 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 26.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 27.8S 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2024 29.8S 41.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 40.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 31.5S 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.02.2024 33.3S 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171611
  3. Estão destacando as águas mais quentes do que o normal e o baixo cisalhamento, seguimos monitorando
  4. Futuro Akará parece estar dando inicio a sua corrida rumo a tropicalidade, novas conveções pipocando próximo ao centro da circulação
  5. WTNT80 EGRR 170411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.02.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01Q ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6S 39.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA012024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.02.2024 24.6S 39.9W WEAK 12UTC 17.02.2024 24.4S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.02.2024 25.1S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 26.1S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 27.7S 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2024 30.1S 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.1S 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 31.9S 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 31.9S 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.2S 40.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.02.2024 32.1S 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 32.7S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.02.2024 33.3S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.02.2024 34.1S 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170411
  6. Depressão Subtropical está lutando contra avanço do ar seco para o interior da circulação. Nas últimas imagens ja é possível ver claramente que o núcleo do sistema está exposto, isso vai dificultar a evolução e potencial classificação em um sistema tropical.
  7. DIAGRAMA DE FASE DO GFS 00Z, MAIS UMA VEZ CORROBORANDO COM UM POTENCIAL PARA TRANSIÇÃO EM CICLONE TROPICAL.
  8. Pequeno update METOFFICE: 326 WTNT80 EGRR 160412 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.02.2024 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 22.9S 40.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.02.2024 21.4S 39.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.02.2024 23.7S 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.02.2024 24.5S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.02.2024 25.5S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 27.0S 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 28.4S 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.02.2024 30.3S 41.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.5S 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 32.2S 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 43.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.02.2024 33.4S 43.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 34.7S 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.02.2024 34.4S 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
  9. Há um fator crítico na evolução desse sistema e que é matador para os ciclones que se formam no Atântico Sul: Cisalhamento (SHEAR). É praticamente um sistema de proteção natural contra ciclones tropicais para que eles não se formarem por aqui com maior frequência por aqui
  10. Conforme dito pelo colega Rodolfo o diagrama de fase do GFS 18z segue mantendo o cenário de ciclone que nasce subtropical e adquire características tropicais como núcleo quente, profundo e simétrico em todos os níveis (vermelho/vermelho) Alguns dias de passeio sobre águas acima de 26°C
  11. NOAA ATENTA https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/tropical/ METOFFICE TAMBÉM WTNT80 EGRR 151613 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.02.2024 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 23.2S 39.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.02.2024 23.6S 39.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.02.2024 24.0S 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.02.2024 25.2S 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.02.2024 25.5S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.02.2024 26.6S 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.02.2024 27.9S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.02.2024 30.2S 38.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.02.2024 31.7S 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.02.2024 32.8S 37.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.02.2024 32.7S 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.02.2024 32.5S 37.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.02.2024 32.9S 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.02.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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