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Rodolfo Alves

Tempo Severo EUA 2021

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Com a formação da linha de tempestades, o potencial para tornados fortes está diminuindo. 

Ainda podemos ter algum tornado mais forte na próxima hora, pois ainda tem uma ou outra célula mais discreta, como é o caso desta perto de Matador, TX.

A tendência nas próximas horas são de tornados provavelmente breves e envoltos em chuva com o avanço da LI.

 

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Até o momento todos os tornados ocorreram fora da área de risco moderado.

O evento principal ocorreu mais a oeste que o previsto pelos modelos. 

 

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Tornado envolto em chuva em Clarendon, TX.

 

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Primeiro tornado forte na área de risco moderado.

Tornado envolto em chuva. 

 

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Tornado aproximando de Howardwick, TX.

 

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Uma nova área com rotação formou ao sul de Clarendon, TX (fraca no momento).

Sem confirmação de tornado na região.

 

Rotação perdeu força perto de Howardwick, TX.

Sem confirmação que tornado segue no chão.

 

Célula está se reciclando.

 

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Rotação fraca segue na célula.

 

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Rotação segue fraca.

Tornado tipo corda e nuvem funil sendo reportados.

 

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Rotação perto de Paducah, TX.

 

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9 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

Rotação segue fraca.

Tornado tipo corda e nuvem funil sendo reportados.

 

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Célula que passou por Paducah causou um breve tornado perto de Acme, TX.

Rotação segue e logo deve entrar no estado de Oklahoma.

 

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No momento somente essa célula em Oklahoma segue com potencial de causar novos tornados.

Tivemos +10 tornados reportados hoje  (como teve vários breves tornados, estimaria um evento com +20 tornados no final da contagem dos 3 dias).

 

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Tornado confirmado no estado de Oklahoma:

 

Citar

Spotr 2 miles E of MCQUEEN, OK @ 02:35 UTC TOR>-Power flashes tornado now

 

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Modelos seguem indicando a possibilidade de um tornado outbreak entre terça e quinta.

 

 ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models have come into somewhat better agreement with
   respect to synoptic features through the early half of the period,
   though smaller-scale differences persist.  Still, confidence has
   increased that a fairly widespread severe weather event will occur
   Day 4 (Wednesday) across the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
   Coast region and northward into at least parts of the Tennessee
   Valley, and then continuing into Day 5 (Thursday) east of the
   Appalachians.  In the wake of this severe-weather episode, high
   pressure/stable air should spread across the U.S. east of the
   Rockies, yielding at least a couple of days of quieter weather with
   respect to convective potential.

   On Wednesday, convection will likely be ongoing across the eastern
   Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana areas, with some severe risk possible
   during the morning hours.  By afternoon, an increase in coverage and
   intensity is expected as closed upper system shifts out of the
   Plains toward the Mississippi Valley.  With a rather
   large/destabilizing warm sector and ample shear across a broad
   region, a rather large 15% area will be maintained, representative
   of an all-hazards severe risk.  Corridors of greater risk --
   including possibly more concentrated tornado potential -- may evolve
   during the afternoon, possibly near the northward-moving warm front.
    While the ECMWF is farther south with this west-to-east front
   (central MS/AL) during the afternoon than the GFS (southern TN),
   will nonetheless introduce a 30% risk area -- encompassing a range
   of possible warm-frontal locations -- given likelihood for
   widespread severe weather that warrants greater probability at this
   time.  

   The severe risk may diminish some into the evening/overnight across
   the southern Appalachians area, but should increase somewhat
   Thursday east of the mountains, possibly as far north as southern
   Virginia and extending southward into north Florida.  Timing
   differences in progression of the surface front increase between the
   GFS and ECMWF with time, so when the threat finally subsides -- as
   storms move offshore -- remains uncertain.  However, this should
   certainly occur prior to the start of Day 6 (Friday), resulting in
   what appears likely to be at least a couple of days of substantially
   decreased convective potential.

 

EwcNaLaW8AUHVnm.thumb.jpg.19c898582eef56e1c96313d3e0e44fa7.jpg

 

EwcNaLaWgAI6zyv.thumb.jpg.f000379d9f7b55bfa5d0ca5295c9bea6.jpg

 

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NWS Amarillo, TX confirma até o momento 7 tornados.

Mais forte foi EF2 até o momento.

 

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Hoje o risco de tornados é maior na região central de Oklahoma segundo o SPC, porém com aumento dos jatos de baixos níveis ao longo do dia, podemos ter algumas supercélulas discretas na região Arklatex e com isso o risco de tornados pode ser aumentado.

 

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Posted (edited)

DIA 2 - Risco Moderado

A broad area of substantial severe weather potential -- including
   risk for large hail, damaging winds, and several strong tornadoes --
   is anticipated Wednesday from  the Arkansas/Louisiana vicinity
   eastward across the central Gulf Coast states/southern Appalachians.

EwlQzetXIAA9aEC.thumb.jpg.d7e9c2892038b6d45da0dcea06d4e431.jpg

Edited by Felipe F
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Um novo evento pode acontecer na próxima semana:

 

 

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SPC mencionando atualização para alto risco!

Último alto risco em Março foi em 2012.

 

If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk
   could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z
   tonight.

 

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Mais de 24h que o radar do Arkansá tá fora do ar. A tornadogênese mais interessante vai ser por lá. 

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8 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

Mais de 24h que o radar do Arkansá tá fora do ar. A tornadogênese mais interessante vai ser por lá. 

Little Rock já está trabalhando para não ter EF5 nos registros. 

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Algumas áreas já em formação sobre o MS. No entanto, a previsão indica a formação de tempestades severas sobre o Texas avançando madrugada adentro.

 

Por enquanto tudo muito calmo no Texas e Oklahoma. 

 

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Célula clássica mais cedo perto de Jackson, MS.

Tivemos apenas granizo na passagem da célula pela região.

 

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Posted (edited)

Esse é o primeiro alto risco emitido desde o fracasso de 20/05/2019.

Discussão do SPC:

 

 

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...


   A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected today and tonight
   across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama.
   Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of
   which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind
   gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are
   possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the
   afternoon into the overnight hours.

 

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Alabama...

 

   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
   over central NM moving east toward the TX Panhandle. This feature
   will eject across OK into the Ozark Plateau by the end of the
   period. Intense large-scale forcing for ascent is currently
   spreading across the southern High Plains region where deep
   convection is currently expanding in areal coverage along the dry
   line/Pacific front as it encounters western edge of moisture plume.
   This boundary will remain active leading into the start of the day1
   period.

 

   Strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread the lower MS
   Valley/central Gulf States during the day as 80kt+ 500mb flow
   overspreads increasingly moist/buoyant warm sector. Latest model
   guidance suggests several LLJ segments will increase ahead of the
   trough, each likely modulating bouts of organized severe
   thunderstorm clusters/supercells. The primary synoptic low is
   forecast to track across northeastern OK into southern MO.
   Significant elevated convection will be noted north of the warm
   front but ample surface-based buoyancy/shear south of the front
   should prove favorable for supercells as one LLJ segment focuses
   across AR into southeast MO ahead of this feature. At the same time,
   a secondary LLJ will strengthen across MS during the day and become
   the primary LLJ into the overnight hours over northwestern AL/middle
   TN. This secondary LLJ appears to be responding to a mid-level speed
   max that will translate across south-central TX into southern LA
   during the late evening hours.

 

   Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now
   present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are
   observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and
   diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a
   corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where
   SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb
   speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific
   front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream
   over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development
   ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH
   Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes,
   and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS
   into northwest AL.

 

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Edited by Felipe F
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Posted (edited)

Risco moderado por tornados amanhã na Geórgia e Carolinas.

Será que vamos ter um evento parecido com 14/15 de Abril de 2011? 

 

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Edited by Felipe F
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Alto Risco foi expandido para Alabama.

 

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1 hora atrás, Felipe F disse:

Esse é o primeiro alto risco emitido desde o fracasso de 20/05/2019.

O Alto Risco eu até perdôo.

Agora o o PDS Tornado Watch 199 foi a maior quebra de expectativa de geral.

Ainda bem. Tivesse acontecido o que o HRRR previa seria uma catástrofe.

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Situação Particularmente Perigosa deverá ser emitido na próxima hora

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THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

 

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7 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

 

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Esse é o primeiro nessa região.

Ainda vai ter outro no início da madrugada quando a linha de instabilidade que tá no Texas alcançar a área. Talvez com probabilidades maiores.

7klkE2I.png

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Primeira área com rotação forte entre MS/AL.

 

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As supercélulas estão nascendo já com forte rotação, tipo antes de atingir topos mais elevados. Essa aqui vai viajar longe

 

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Tornado confirmado na área.

 

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19 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

Esse é o primeiro nessa região.

Ainda vai ter outro no início da madrugada quando a linha de instabilidade que tá no Texas alcançar a área. Talvez com probabilidades maiores.

 

Logo vem outro PDS:

 

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Danos por tornados na célula no MS.

 

 

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Nuvem funil perto de Selma, Alabama.

Duas áreas no Mississippi sendo observadas (uma teve um tornado confirmado mais cedo com danos).

 

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Posted (edited)

Começou #St. Patrick's Day Tornado Outbreak

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Edited by Tavares
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