Felipe F Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:29 PM Share Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:29 PM Com a formação da linha de tempestades, o potencial para tornados fortes está diminuindo. Ainda podemos ter algum tornado mais forte na próxima hora, pois ainda tem uma ou outra célula mais discreta, como é o caso desta perto de Matador, TX. A tendência nas próximas horas são de tornados provavelmente breves e envoltos em chuva com o avanço da LI. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:47 PM Share Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:47 PM Até o momento todos os tornados ocorreram fora da área de risco moderado. O evento principal ocorreu mais a oeste que o previsto pelos modelos. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:48 PM Share Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:48 PM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:55 PM Share Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:55 PM Tornado envolto em chuva em Clarendon, TX. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:56 PM Share Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:56 PM Clarendon, TX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:59 PM Share Posted March 13, 2021 at 11:59 PM Primeiro tornado forte na área de risco moderado. Tornado envolto em chuva. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:04 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:04 AM Tornado aproximando de Howardwick, TX. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:16 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:16 AM Uma nova área com rotação formou ao sul de Clarendon, TX (fraca no momento). Sem confirmação de tornado na região. Rotação perdeu força perto de Howardwick, TX. Sem confirmação que tornado segue no chão. Célula está se reciclando. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:23 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:23 AM Clarendon, TX 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:39 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 12:39 AM Rotação fraca segue na célula. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:00 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:00 AM Rotação segue fraca. Tornado tipo corda e nuvem funil sendo reportados. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:00 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:00 AM Rotação perto de Paducah, TX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:10 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:10 AM 9 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: Rotação segue fraca. Tornado tipo corda e nuvem funil sendo reportados. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:10 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 01:10 AM Happy, TX 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:06 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:06 AM Célula que passou por Paducah causou um breve tornado perto de Acme, TX. Rotação segue e logo deve entrar no estado de Oklahoma. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matheus b Santos Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:11 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:11 AM Strong rotation OK 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:19 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:19 AM No momento somente essa célula em Oklahoma segue com potencial de causar novos tornados. Tivemos +10 tornados reportados hoje (como teve vários breves tornados, estimaria um evento com +20 tornados no final da contagem dos 3 dias). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:42 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:42 AM Happy, TX 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:44 AM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:44 AM Tornado confirmado no estado de Oklahoma: Citar Spotr 2 miles E of MCQUEEN, OK @ 02:35 UTC TOR>-Power flashes tornado now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:04 PM Share Posted March 14, 2021 at 02:04 PM Modelos seguem indicando a possibilidade de um tornado outbreak entre terça e quinta. ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models have come into somewhat better agreement with respect to synoptic features through the early half of the period, though smaller-scale differences persist. Still, confidence has increased that a fairly widespread severe weather event will occur Day 4 (Wednesday) across the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region and northward into at least parts of the Tennessee Valley, and then continuing into Day 5 (Thursday) east of the Appalachians. In the wake of this severe-weather episode, high pressure/stable air should spread across the U.S. east of the Rockies, yielding at least a couple of days of quieter weather with respect to convective potential. On Wednesday, convection will likely be ongoing across the eastern Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana areas, with some severe risk possible during the morning hours. By afternoon, an increase in coverage and intensity is expected as closed upper system shifts out of the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. With a rather large/destabilizing warm sector and ample shear across a broad region, a rather large 15% area will be maintained, representative of an all-hazards severe risk. Corridors of greater risk -- including possibly more concentrated tornado potential -- may evolve during the afternoon, possibly near the northward-moving warm front. While the ECMWF is farther south with this west-to-east front (central MS/AL) during the afternoon than the GFS (southern TN), will nonetheless introduce a 30% risk area -- encompassing a range of possible warm-frontal locations -- given likelihood for widespread severe weather that warrants greater probability at this time. The severe risk may diminish some into the evening/overnight across the southern Appalachians area, but should increase somewhat Thursday east of the mountains, possibly as far north as southern Virginia and extending southward into north Florida. Timing differences in progression of the surface front increase between the GFS and ECMWF with time, so when the threat finally subsides -- as storms move offshore -- remains uncertain. However, this should certainly occur prior to the start of Day 6 (Friday), resulting in what appears likely to be at least a couple of days of substantially decreased convective potential. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 15, 2021 at 04:08 PM Share Posted March 15, 2021 at 04:08 PM NWS Amarillo, TX confirma até o momento 7 tornados. Mais forte foi EF2 até o momento. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:21 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:21 PM Hoje o risco de tornados é maior na região central de Oklahoma segundo o SPC, porém com aumento dos jatos de baixos níveis ao longo do dia, podemos ter algumas supercélulas discretas na região Arklatex e com isso o risco de tornados pode ser aumentado. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:23 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:23 PM (edited) DIA 2 - Risco Moderado A broad area of substantial severe weather potential -- including risk for large hail, damaging winds, and several strong tornadoes -- is anticipated Wednesday from the Arkansas/Louisiana vicinity eastward across the central Gulf Coast states/southern Appalachians. Edited March 16, 2021 at 12:23 PM by Felipe F 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:24 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:24 PM DIA 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:26 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 12:26 PM Um novo evento pode acontecer na próxima semana: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 16, 2021 at 06:22 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 06:22 PM SPC mencionando atualização para alto risco! Último alto risco em Março foi em 2012. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 16, 2021 at 08:15 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 08:15 PM Mais de 24h que o radar do Arkansá tá fora do ar. A tornadogênese mais interessante vai ser por lá. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 16, 2021 at 08:25 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 08:25 PM 8 minutos atrás, Tavares disse: Mais de 24h que o radar do Arkansá tá fora do ar. A tornadogênese mais interessante vai ser por lá. Little Rock já está trabalhando para não ter EF5 nos registros. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matheus b Santos Posted March 16, 2021 at 10:55 PM Share Posted March 16, 2021 at 10:55 PM Algumas áreas já em formação sobre o MS. No entanto, a previsão indica a formação de tempestades severas sobre o Texas avançando madrugada adentro. Por enquanto tudo muito calmo no Texas e Oklahoma. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 01:26 AM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 01:26 AM Célula clássica mais cedo perto de Jackson, MS. Tivemos apenas granizo na passagem da célula pela região. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matheus b Santos Posted March 17, 2021 at 10:40 AM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 10:40 AM O EF5 vem! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 12:50 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 12:50 PM (edited) Esse é o primeiro alto risco emitido desde o fracasso de 20/05/2019. Discussão do SPC: ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected today and tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Alabama... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over central NM moving east toward the TX Panhandle. This feature will eject across OK into the Ozark Plateau by the end of the period. Intense large-scale forcing for ascent is currently spreading across the southern High Plains region where deep convection is currently expanding in areal coverage along the dry line/Pacific front as it encounters western edge of moisture plume. This boundary will remain active leading into the start of the day1 period. Strongly diffluent flow aloft will overspread the lower MS Valley/central Gulf States during the day as 80kt+ 500mb flow overspreads increasingly moist/buoyant warm sector. Latest model guidance suggests several LLJ segments will increase ahead of the trough, each likely modulating bouts of organized severe thunderstorm clusters/supercells. The primary synoptic low is forecast to track across northeastern OK into southern MO. Significant elevated convection will be noted north of the warm front but ample surface-based buoyancy/shear south of the front should prove favorable for supercells as one LLJ segment focuses across AR into southeast MO ahead of this feature. At the same time, a secondary LLJ will strengthen across MS during the day and become the primary LLJ into the overnight hours over northwestern AL/middle TN. This secondary LLJ appears to be responding to a mid-level speed max that will translate across south-central TX into southern LA during the late evening hours. Of particular interest is the boundary-layer moisture that is now present along the Gulf Coast where lower 70s surface dew points are observed. This air mass will advance north during the day and diurnal heating will allow moderate instability to develop along a corridor from southern LA through central MS into western AL where SBCAPE should be on the order of 2500 J/kg. While the primary 500mb speed max will likely maintain convection along the surging Pacific front over southeast TX, an uncapped, buoyant air mass downstream over MS/AL should prove favorable for discrete supercell development ahead of the primary short wave. Forecast soundings across the HIGH Risk exhibit profiles favorable for strong, long-track tornadoes, and this is especially true from northeast LA through northern MS into northwest AL. Edited March 17, 2021 at 12:57 PM by Felipe F 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 12:54 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 12:54 PM (edited) Risco moderado por tornados amanhã na Geórgia e Carolinas. Será que vamos ter um evento parecido com 14/15 de Abril de 2011? Edited March 17, 2021 at 12:56 PM by Felipe F 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 12:59 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 12:59 PM Alto Risco foi expandido para Alabama. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 02:32 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 02:32 PM 1 hora atrás, Felipe F disse: Esse é o primeiro alto risco emitido desde o fracasso de 20/05/2019. O Alto Risco eu até perdôo. Agora o o PDS Tornado Watch 199 foi a maior quebra de expectativa de geral. Ainda bem. Tivesse acontecido o que o HRRR previa seria uma catástrofe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:11 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:11 PM Situação Particularmente Perigosa deverá ser emitido na próxima hora 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:22 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:22 PM DÉJÀ-VU 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:44 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:44 PM THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:58 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 04:58 PM 7 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION Esse é o primeiro nessa região. Ainda vai ter outro no início da madrugada quando a linha de instabilidade que tá no Texas alcançar a área. Talvez com probabilidades maiores. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:06 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:06 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:09 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:09 PM Primeira área com rotação forte entre MS/AL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:10 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:10 PM As supercélulas estão nascendo já com forte rotação, tipo antes de atingir topos mais elevados. Essa aqui vai viajar longe 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:10 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:10 PM Tornado confirmado na área. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:13 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:13 PM Aquele live stream maroto alguém tem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:18 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:18 PM 19 minutos atrás, Tavares disse: Esse é o primeiro nessa região. Ainda vai ter outro no início da madrugada quando a linha de instabilidade que tá no Texas alcançar a área. Talvez com probabilidades maiores. Logo vem outro PDS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matheus b Santos Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:21 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:21 PM Selma/AL no caminho dessa célula. Se alguém tiver link joga aqui. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:32 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:32 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:35 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:35 PM Danos por tornados na célula no MS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:38 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:38 PM Nuvem funil perto de Selma, Alabama. Duas áreas no Mississippi sendo observadas (uma teve um tornado confirmado mais cedo com danos). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:45 PM Share Posted March 17, 2021 at 05:45 PM (edited) Começou #St. Patrick's Day Tornado Outbreak Edited March 17, 2021 at 05:45 PM by Tavares 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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