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Rodolfo Alves

Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste e Central - 2020

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E enquanto isso no pacifico leste, O NHC deixa um belo movimento de Invest's

Tres com media chance e 1 com uma baixa chance.

2103778016_two_pac_2d0(1).png.1bfffda3fbadebff517f635eb0fd92e2.png1287972648_two_pac_5d0(4).png.96afe6c4168b37ce628ea051a5da82ed.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, 
and this system could become a tropical depression during the next 
few days while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip 
of the Baja California peninsula, have changed little in 
organization since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next two to three days 
while the disturbance moves westward.  After that time, cooler 
waters are likely to inhibit further development. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. An area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the 
coast of Mexico in a couple of days.  Development is expected to 
occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical 
depression by late this week as the disturbance moves 
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system 
over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the 
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Subtropical Depression 04L se formou as 17:30 do horario de Brasilia.204324_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.abdf408bb59d162ef3e354a6766b271e.png

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27 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

ST4

 

Imagem

Ja tem o olho subtropical. Agora so falta 04L ser nomeado Dolly guaraná Dolly

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6 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Ja tem o olho subtropical. Agora so falta 04L ser nomeado Dolly guaraná Dolly

Meu deus, tu é uma figura kkkkk

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19 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Ja tem o olho subtropical. Agora so falta 04L ser nomeado Dolly guaraná Dolly

 

Pronto! Tá aí a sua Dolly.

=======================================================================

000
WTNT64 KNHC 231613
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical 
Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are 
now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  In addition, the wind 
field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a 
tropical storm.

A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM 
AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown
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Posted (edited)

164112_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.a8a7bc640567bf92dac85c1e02a3d07d.png

13 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

 

Pronto! Tá aí a sua Dolly.

=======================================================================


000
WTNT64 KNHC 231613
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical 
Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are 
now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  In addition, the wind 
field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a 
tropical storm.

A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM 
AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown

Valeu✌

Estão servidos?

Edited by Miguel Russe
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NHC monitora 4 areas no momento.

Proximos nomes são: BorisCristinaDouglasElida.

333693924_two_pac_5d0(5).png.a86dc94b4ced6144f7a2cd546c4c08de.png1938778961_two_pac_2d0(2).png.0129c392d4bdc20b4cd033bc5b73d457.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 1600 
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
has decreased since yesterday, environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and this 
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the 
next few days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of 
days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler 
waters after that time which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a 
tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical 
depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward 
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system 
over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the 
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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7 minutos atrás, mario junior disse:

Dolly20200623_162548.thumb.png.ba54fec08ed11155030459e3d5319863.png

Dolly ja tem oho.

Acho que chega talvez num 65 mph e 990 mbar.

Mas no fundo, so quero que Dolly fique com 74mph e 985 mbar

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Em 1992, tivemos o Andrew em agosto, primeiro sistema nomeado do ano e já fortíssimo (outro exemplo foi Allen, de 1980), isto na época em que eram nomeados apenas sistemas tropicais “inequívocos” (não faz muito tempo, mas parece que foi há séculos).

 

Tenho certeza absoluta que jamais teremos um novo Andrew ou Allen; agora a tempestade nomeada com a letra A está fadada a ser insignificante em termos de intensidade máxima do vento, dada a atual avidez com que o NHC nomeia qualquer coisa (ímpeto inexistente até o começo do século XXI). Já os danos causados por chuva não tem ligação alguma com a intensidade do sistema, vide Allison (2001) e Agnes (1972), entre muitos outros (o próprio Harvey, de 2016, é um ótimo exemplo; a chuva mais volumosa caiu nas fases tempestade/depressão tropical, e não quando era um furacão forte no "landfall").

 

Tudo bem que os métodos mudem ao longo do tempo, à medida que surgem ferramentas mais sofisticadas para auxiliar na detecção dos sistemas, mas infelizmente o NHC falha miseravelmente em comunicar este fato básico, e os principais cientistas do ramo também (sempre despejam a mesma falácia de temporadas cada vez mais longas e com mais tempestades, o que qualquer pessoa que pesquise minimamente sobre o tema sabe que não é verdade, pois estão comparando bananas com maçãs, ou quem sabe com jacas)... 

 

O ACE permanece sendo o melhor indicador do grau de atividade de uma temporada (uma vez que o número de sistemas nomeados se tornou irrelevante, tamanho foi o impacto da mudança de metodologia), mas também está sujeito a distorções causadas por métodos mais modernos, que geram estimativas de vento mais agressivas para as tempestades (antes de Irma e Dorian, nenhum furacão com pressão mínima nos 910/915 mb havia sido classificado com ventos na na casa dos 180 mph, e o próprio NHC quase fez um mea-culpa no “storm report" do Dorian, sugerindo que o atual método "SFMR" favorece intensidades maiores que os métodos utilizados até muito recentemente.  É bem provável que, se tivesse ocorrido há alguns anos, a intensidade máxima estimada de Dorian não teria passado dos 165/170 mph (e Irma também).  Abaixo o trecho em que discutem a incerteza sobre a acurácia do método “SFMR” para estimar a intensidade de um ciclone tropical acima de um determinado patamar de intensidade (a minha tradução: “não sabemos qual foi a intensidade máxima de Dorian, no quesito ventos sustentados máximos em superfície”).

 

Dorian.png.50c4ac88f988d63b587f0751043eea54.png

 

 

 

 

Se transportássemos a temporada de 1992 para os dias atuais (exatamente como foi), Andrew provavelmente teria se chamado Danielle, Earl ou Frances.

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Sobre a lista rotativa do NHC, tem o outro lado da história, creio. Se hoje os nomes com a letra A são tempestades medíocres os nomes com as letras M, N pra frente são finalmente utilizados. A espectativa era de que acabassem os nomes do início do alfabeto enquanto outras ficariam eternas. No século XX só 4 ou 5 nomes foram aposentados após a letra M e quase todos os nomes do final vem sendo reciclados desde as primeiras listas que incluíram os nomes masculinos e os femininos acho que de bem antes.

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No atlântico, acabou a guaraná. Dolly virou DT ontem de madrugada e deve virar um baixo remanecente hoje a tarde ou a noite.1961445130_two_atl_2d0(2).png.370235ed89f81edc80f27381f31867ae.png

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dolly Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020

...DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 59.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Posted (edited)

E no Pacífico Leste e Central, temos 3 invest's, sendo uma quarta invest esperada pra se formar.

No Pacífico Leste, temos 92E, 93E, 94E e a futura 95E.

No Pacífico Central, temos 93E.

93E e 94E devem virar Boris e Cristina ou Hone e Boris.

1886297953_two_pac_2d0(3).png.9bca515659cc1601dc6aec36d90656cd.pngtwo_cpac_2d0.png.fc8f4358829f9d1ec03db94904012cf7.png

 

ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight 
near the center of a small area of low pressure located about 1700 
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.  If this development trend continues, a tropical 
depression could develop later today or tonight while it moves 
slowly toward the west or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few 
thunderstorms.  Some development of this system is possible during 
the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph 
before it moves over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a 
tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a 
tropical depression within the next few days while it moves 
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system 
will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward 
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Edited by Miguel Russe
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10 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

E no Pacífico Leste e Central, temos 3 invest's, sendo uma quarta invest esperada pra se formar.

No Pacífico Leste, temos 92E, 93E, 94E e a futura 95E.

No Pacífico Central, temos 93E.

93E e 94E devem virar Boris e Cristina ou Hone e Boris.

1886297953_two_pac_2d0(3).png.9bca515659cc1601dc6aec36d90656cd.pngtwo_cpac_2d0.png.fc8f4358829f9d1ec03db94904012cf7.png

 


ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight 
near the center of a small area of low pressure located about 1700 
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.  If this development trend continues, a tropical 
depression could develop later today or tonight while it moves 
slowly toward the west or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few 
thunderstorms.  Some development of this system is possible during 
the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph 
before it moves over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a 
tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a 
tropical depression within the next few days while it moves 
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system 
will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward 
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Pacifico Central e a partir do 140°W meu anjo, e caso o invest estivesse dentro da área, teria C como sufixo

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4 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse:

Pacifico Central e a partir do 140°W meu anjo, e caso o invest estivesse dentro da área, teria C como sufixo

Eu sei

Eu disse isso para dizer que 93E podia cruzar a bacia do Pacífico Leste ao Central!

Como se fosse assim:

"No Pacífico Central, temos 93E que está prestes a entrar na bacia"

 

Mas falando em 93E, Vejam:

175063996_two_pac_2d0(4).png.bd9fae914bf5b276189e6fd5e35a73ee.png

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 132.9W
ABOUT 1615 MI...2605 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn 
toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with this 
motion continuing through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm late tonight or 
on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
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Quero tirar uma rapida duvida:

Porque que os ciclones tropicais não são nomeados quando eles são depressão tropical e quando vira TS é nomeado?

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Depressão Tropical 03-E permanece com pouca mudança devido ao cisalhamento de vento moderado (15-20 nós) e ao ar seco de norte, mas como já possui uma circulação bem definida (como mostra a imagem de satélite) e convecção profunda começa a explodir ao sul da circulação ciclônica em baixos níveis, 03-E irá se tornar "Boris" provavelmente amanhã no aviso público de 11am hora local, é o meu palpite. Não vejo virando Boris antes disso, TALVEZ no aviso público de 5 AM ele pode se tornar tempestade tropical, mas é mais provável que seja nomeado no fim da manhã de amanhã. 

51c917f5-6022-439f-bdc6-0b5d4b3572f2.gif

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48 minutos atrás, PabloMartins disse:

Depressão Tropical 03-E permanece com pouca mudança devido ao cisalhamento de vento moderado (15-20 nós) e ao ar seco de norte, mas como já possui uma circulação bem definida (como mostra a imagem de satélite) e convecção profunda começa a explodir ao sul da circulação ciclônica em baixos níveis, 03-E irá se tornar "Boris" provavelmente amanhã no aviso público de 11am hora local, é o meu palpite. Não vejo virando Boris antes disso, TALVEZ no aviso público de 5 AM ele pode se tornar tempestade tropical, mas é mais provável que seja nomeado no fim da manhã de amanhã. 

51c917f5-6022-439f-bdc6-0b5d4b3572f2.gif

Quem sabe?

Seja bem vindo, Boris Casoy!

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03E está vencendo o ar seco, mas continua lutando bravamente

Convecção cresceu, e eu não duvido que saia uma atualização para TS.

Bem mais bonito que ontem!

goes17_vis_03E_202006251555_lat10.7-lon224.1.thumb.jpg.64ee45d659cb4288805dfca82d7818e9.jpg

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23 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Quero tirar uma rapida duvida:

Porque que os ciclones tropicais não são nomeados quando eles são depressão tropical e quando vira TS é nomeado?

A nomeação de nomes e a intensidade mínima para conseguir um nome é apenas algo formal.

Todo ano temos quase uma centena de depressões tropicais no mundo e a maioria não causa grandes problemas, então dar nomes para todos não daria certo, pois logo iria ser esgotados todos os nomes e tu teria que começar a repetir.  Além disso os nomes são usados para tentar reduzir a confusão quando ocorre tempestades simultâneas na mesma bacia e assim ajudar nos alertas (indiretamente também ajudam a "eternizar" os ciclones que tem notoriedade - algo bem raro de ocorrer em depressões).

 

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48 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

A nomeação de nomes e a intensidade mínima para conseguir um nome é apenas algo formal.

Todo ano temos quase uma centena de depressões tropicais no mundo e a maioria não causa grandes problemas, então dar nomes para todos não daria certo, pois logo iria ser esgotados todos os nomes e tu teria que começar a repetir.  Além disso os nomes são usados para tentar reduzir a confusão quando ocorre tempestades simultâneas na mesma bacia e assim ajudar nos alertas (indiretamente também ajudam a "eternizar" os ciclones que tem notoriedade - algo bem raro de ocorrer em depressões).

 

Obg Felipe!

Falando nisso, 03E vira Boris.

Tropical Storm Boris Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BORIS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 137.1W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1965 MI...3160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Boris was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 137.1 West.  Boris is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue tonight.  A turn toward the west is 
forecast Friday or Friday night, with this motion continuing 
through Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little 
change in strength is expected tonight.  After that, Boris is 
forecast to weaken back to a depression Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

goes17_vis_03E_202006252045_lat11.0-lon223.3.thumb.jpg.f03a09f108f828978322f4c0746654fb.jpg

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Posted (edited)

Boris virou depressão tropical.

Esperando mais atualizações.

Edited by Miguel Russe
Editei por citar o primeiro-ministro britânico Boris Jonhson.
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1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Boris *  virou depressão tropical.

Esperando mais atualizações.

Edita (motivo: política)

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Posted (edited)

Boris está melhor organisado hoje.

Se não sair atualização para TS hoje ainda ou amanhã, já era.

O que Boris fez para voltar a ser uma bela tormenta novamente? Venceu o ar seco de novo?goes17_vis_03E_202006270205_lat12.6-lon220.4.thumb.jpg.947ae4bf2a88ed1e705157fdcba7d98f.jpg

Edit: como vocês podem ver, Boris está a dois passos de entrar na bacia do pacifico central. Estimo que Boris tenha 50 mph e pressão de 1000 mb no momento. Acho q o aviso das meia noite sera o ultimo aviso do NHC.

Agora, sofreremos com o conservadorismo do CPHC.

Edited by mario junior
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1 hora atrás, mario junior disse:

Boris está melhor organisado hoje.

Se não sair atualização para TS hoje ainda ou amanhã, já era.

O que Boris fez para voltar a ser uma bela tormenta novamente? Venceu o ar seco de novo?goes17_vis_03E_202006270205_lat12.6-lon220.4.thumb.jpg.947ae4bf2a88ed1e705157fdcba7d98f.jpg

Edit: como vocês podem ver, Boris está a dois passos de entrar na bacia do pacifico central. Estimo que Boris tenha 50 mph e pressão de 1000 mb no momento. Acho q o aviso das meia noite sera o ultimo aviso do NHC.

Agora, sofreremos com o conservadorismo do CPHC.

 Será que estamos vendo o mesmo sistema???? Kkkk olha as imagens de satélite, infravermelho e visível, convecção profunda diminuiu consideravelmente, a circulação está se deteriorando, principalmente nos médios e altos níveis da atmosfera, além disso o cisalhamento de vento vai aumentar MUITO nas próximas horas. Acho que Boris tem NO MÁXIMO, mais 12h de classificação. 

goes17_03E_band13_202006270305.png

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Posted (edited)
22 horas atrás, mario junior disse:

Boris está melhor organisado hoje.

Se não sair atualização para TS hoje ainda ou amanhã, já era.




goes17_vis_03E_202006270205_lat12.6-lon220.4.thumb.jpg.947ae4bf2a88ed1e705157fdcba7d98f.jpg

Estimo que Boris tenha 50 mph e pressão de 1000 mb no momento.

20 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse:

 Será que estamos vendo o mesmo sistema???? Kkkk olha as imagens de satélite, infravermelho e visível

goes17_03E_band13_202006270305.png

Como Pablo Martins dizia uma vez para mim: As aparência enganam

Edited by Miguel Russe

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Boris virou um baixo remanecente.

Agora, vamos esperar por Cristina.

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Atlântico tem duas areas de investigação:

Uma tropical wave e uma futura area bem n'aonde Dolly passou.

Mas ambas areas tem 20% de chances de se formarem nos proximos 5 dias,

Mas tem a tropical wave que tem 10% de chances de se formar nas próximas 48 h.

Próximo nome é Edouard

331504967_two_atl_5d1(1).png.8e641801337f43f4efb25d4760f0edf1.png

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next 2 
to 3 days.  After that time, environmental conditions become less 
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A low pressure area is expected to form in a few days off of the 
southeastern coast of the United States.  Some additional 
development of this system could then occur as it moves generally 
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Posted (edited)

Invest 96L:

goes16_truecolor_96L_202006281545_lat12.5-lon323.5.thumb.jpg.46e0e2d7c1daef55af9b729c3236db83.jpg

No atlântico as aguas estão quentes, o que e bom para a tormenta.cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png.625c83ca7eba72f8e6ede33980b1118c.png

Edited by Miguel Russe
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95E se organizou de uma forma "meio-rapidinho" 🐚
Vamos ver se vira 04E, Cristina ou fica por ali mesmo em intensidade.

747858565_two_pac_2d0(5).png.0d2bbd632a01995e18db688fabbd1eea.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico 
have become better organized today. Although the system does not 
currently have a well-defined center, additional development is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Monday as 
the system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time, 
additional development will become unlikely as the disturbance moves 
over cooler waters. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is likely to form a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of the 
week.  Environmental conditions are then forecast to be conducive 
for slow development while the system moves west-northwestward at 
10 to 15 mph well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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04E se forma perto de Cabo San Lucas, na Baja California Peninsula.

Não é esperado vida longa.

023401_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.78015b120f199d5686f77293b5674df4.png

 

Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042020
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 112.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A 
northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the 
next day or two. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected overnight.  Weakening should 
begin on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a 
remnant low when it moves over cooler waters by Tuesday afternoon 
or evening. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
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Os remanecentes de boris ainda estão vivos.

As aguas mais quentes atrás do Havaí dvem favorecer para boris se intensifique novamente. Acho que caso volte a ser TS. Acho que ele será renomeado para Hone.

1 min: 30 mph

Pressão: 1009 mbargoes17_truecolor_03E_202006301235_lat8.9-lon209.3.thumb.jpg.2678776ee9a525925db37cfb1fd41a9c.jpg

 

Só lembrando que o CPHC ainda n começou a ver sistema, pois isso é apenas uma cortesia do TropicalTidbits.

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1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Os remanecentes de boris ainda estão vivos.

As aguas mais quentes atrás do Havaí dvem favorecer para boris se intensifique novamente. Acho que caso volte a ser TS. Acho que ele será renomeado para Hone.

1 min: 30 mph

Pressão: 1009 mbargoes17_truecolor_03E_202006301235_lat8.9-lon209.3.thumb.jpg.2678776ee9a525925db37cfb1fd41a9c.jpg

 

Só lembrando que o CPHC ainda n começou a ver sistema, pois isso é apenas uma cortesia do TropicalTidbits.

Não vai se intensificar, muito menos ser chamado de "Hone".

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Que tédio q ta o mundo

Junho teve seis tormentas, mas a mais forte foi Nisarga.

O q ta acontecendo? As águas do pacífico oeste, do indico, do golfo do mexico e as aguas das bahamas estão fervendo, tenho capacidade de fritar até um ovo, e nada de ciclones?! Se continuar assim, teremos a versão do pacífico 2010 para o mundo todo em 2020! Até agora, apenas temos uma invest no pacífico leste, e nada demais.

Chaticeee

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24 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Que tédio q ta o mundo

Junho teve seis tormentas, mas a mais forte foi Nisarga.

O q ta acontecendo? As águas do pacífico oeste, do indico, do golfo do mexico e as aguas das bahamas estão fervendo, tenho capacidade de fritar até um ovo, e nada de ciclones?! Se continuar assim, teremos a versão do pacífico 2010 para o mundo todo em 2020! Até agora, apenas temos uma invest no pacífico leste, e nada demais.

Chaticeee

Climatologicamente, Junho e Novembro são os meses mais parados em relações à ciclones tropicais no globo, provavelmente porquê é o fim da janela que permite a formação no Índico Norte por causa das monções e o início da temporada do pacifico leste e atlântico norte, e esse ano ainda por cima, o pacífico oeste ta seco demais e com cisalhamento de vento mais forte, o pacífico como um todo ta assim na verdade porque ta um "neutro frio", um neutro q a temperatura ta abaixo da média mas sem la nina, já afeta bastante... fora o shear e o ar seco e o hemisfério sul lógico, sem nenhuma chance

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5 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse:

Climatologicamente, Junho e Novembro são os meses mais parados em relações à ciclones tropicais no globo, provavelmente porquê é o fim da janela que permite a formação no Índico Norte por causa das monções e o início da temporada do pacifico leste e atlântico norte, e esse ano ainda por cima, o pacífico oeste ta seco demais e com cisalhamento de vento mais forte, o pacífico como um todo ta assim na verdade porque ta um "neutro frio", um neutro q a temperatura ta abaixo da média mas sem la nina, já afeta bastante... fora o shear e o ar seco e o hemisfério sul lógico, sem nenhuma chance

Poha....

Agora sim temos 2010 v.2 ..

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Tem agora uma area pequena q esta sendo monitorada pelo NHC.

97L tem uma chance media de formar algo nas proximas 24h e 5d.

A ilha Bermuda está monitorando a tormenta no caso de um eventual impacto desse sistema lá.

Vi agora a pouco que o Windyty fala de chances de 97L virar furacão😂

Mas.... Como tem umas partes quentinhas lá... Quem sabe né!?

 

 

996957194_two_atl_2d0(3).png.aa37b9f421026e2356d88da3fa9330f3.png

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss potential 
tropical development of low pressure system southwest of Bermuda.

1. An area of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of a small 
low pressure system located more than 300 miles southwest of 
Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that 
winds have increased and that the circulation has become better 
defined. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical 
depression could form overnight or early Saturday while the system 
moves eastward at about 15 mph.  By Sunday night, however, 
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for 
significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Depressão tropical 5 se formou no Atlântico.

Deve se fortalecer para tempestade tropical Edouard ainda hoje e afetar as Bermudas.

 

 

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3 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

Depressão tropical 5 se formou no Atlântico.

Deve se fortalecer para tempestade tropical Edouard ainda hoje e afetar as Bermudas.

 

 

Que raridade!

Nunca vi isso de algo se formar em julho depois de 4 sistemas nomeados.

Atlântico está virando 2017.

145229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.e03ebf3778184794cd57a37602bbd95a.png

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five 
was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 
km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight, 
followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track, 
the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and 
north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system 
could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on 
Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The 
Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more 
information please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.

RAIN:  Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain 
accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum 
amounts of 4 inches in and around Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
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Novidade. Estamos batendo recordes que pertencem a 2005!!!!

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4 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Novidade. Estamos batendo recordes que pertencem a 2005!!!!

Não tem muita significância a partir do momento que todas são fracas, se formam nos subtrópicos e são de curta duração

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Posted (edited)

Tem um sisteminha no golfo.

Está seguindo as inicias do Furacão Barry do ano passado.

Se não for por agora, logo logo teremos FAY.



NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of 
Bermuda.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some 
slight development of this system is possible before the trough 
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday.  The 
system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore 
of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO 
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

two_atl_2d1 (3).png

Edited by Miguel Russe
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05L passou as bermudas.

Não houve atualização para TS Edouard.

Pressão está em 1008 mbar.

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