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Rodolfo Alves

Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste e Central - 2020

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BELAS IMAGENS DE RADAR E SATÉLITE DA TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL ALPHA.

 

001.jpg.07cea25e2300c9e55a6f9e5d19382628.jpg002.gif.61516b4dd1e3c6cdb98bb06c88571d5a.gif003.png.ba78e2cb05f009339efcd8e2eee19947.png

 

ALPHA IRÁ FAZER LANDFALL NAS PRÓXIMAS HORAS SOBRE PORTUGAL. 

 

ISSO TORNARÁ O PRIMEIRO SISTEMA NA FASE SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL A FAZER LANDFALL COMO JÁ DITO. 

 

 

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DISCUSSÃO DO NHC MENCIONA QUE ALPHA GANHOU FORÇA NAS ÚLTIMAS HORAS, COM MAIORES EVIDÊNCIAS DE SER UMA TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL A PARTIR DO SCARTOMETRO E DE IMAGENS DE RADAR DE PORTUGAL.

 

Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020

The small low pressure area that has been rotating around a larger 
extratropical low in the far northeastern Atlantic has become better 
organized this morning.  Moderate-to-deep convection has persisted 
near the center since last night, scatterometer data shows a closed 
40-kt low, and radar images from Portugal show a definite organized 
convective pattern.  While the system is still in the cyclonic 
envelope of the large extratropical low and likely neutral- or 
cold-core, it has developed enough tropical characteristics to be 
considered a subtropical storm.  The initial intensity is set to 45 
kt in accordance with the scatterometer data, assuming some 
undersampling for this small system.

Little change in strength is forecast until landfall in Portugal 
during the next couple of hours.  Global models show the small low 
moving northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 24 hours before 
dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. The track and 
intensity forecasts are consistent with the consensus guidance.

Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found 
in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.

001.thumb.png.beb2173ae3346e780c33267e4b823da2.png

 

 

 

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13 minutos atrás, mario junior disse:

Vou citar aqui, ja que ninguem citou:

 

If Alpha makes landfall in Portugal as a subtropical cyclone, it will be the first cyclone to do so in history.

 


Se Alpha aterrissar em Portugal como um ciclone subtropical, será o primeiro ciclone a fazê-lo na história.

Acho que não einh.

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20 minutos atrás, mario junior disse:

Vou citar aqui, ja que ninguem citou:

 

If Alpha makes landfall in Portugal as a subtropical cyclone, it will be the first cyclone to do so in history.

 


Se Alpha aterrissar em Portugal como um ciclone subtropical, será o primeiro ciclone a fazê-lo na história.

 

 

NÃO É BEM ASSIM.... 

 

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BOLETIM OFICIAL DO IPMA (INMET DE PORTUGAL):

 

Informação especial

Comunicado válido entre 2020-09-18 16:47:00 e 2020-09-18 23:59:00

Assunto: Ciclone subtropical Alpha

A depressão centrada junto à costa do distrito de Leiria, ganhou características subtropicais durante a tarde, revelando uma estrutura organizada nas imagens de satélite. O NHC contatou o IPMA no sentido de ser feita uma avaliação conjunta da situação, tendo-se optado por nomear o ciclone. Esse ciclone foi nomeado de Alpha. Segundo as projeções dos diferentes modelos, após a entrada em terra, o Alpha deverá perder rapidamente intensidade.

Com a aproximação da depressão à costa foi possível monitorizar o ciclone com o auxílio do sistema de radar, sendo possível identificar ventos de intensidade muito elevada em altitude, mas relativamente próximo da superfície. Tendo em conta os elementos disponíveis no momento, foi decidido elevar o nível de aviso para laranja os avisos de vento, precipitação e trovoada nos distritos diretamente afetados, Leiria e Coimbra.

Tendo em conta o agravar da situação meteorológica, recomenda-se o acompanhamento da previsão e avisos meteorológicos ao longo das próximas horas, consultando:

http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.descritiva/
http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.significativa
http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev-sam/

Para mais detalhes sobre a previsão para a navegação marítima consultar:

http://www.ipma.pt/pt/maritima/boletins/

 

001.thumb.png.1d013e27899587244ccc935250be23dc.png

 

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2 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse:

 

NÃO É BEM ASSIM.... 

 

Todos os outros sistemas chegaram como pós-tropical, tirando Vince, 2005 que foi uma depressão.

Então Alpha seria histórico, pois seria realmente o primeiro ciclone subtropical/tropical com landfall em Portugal Continental. 

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Acho que a inclusão de sistemas subtropicais na "gama" de sistemas observados pelo NHC é mais recente e os ciclones mais antigos listados pelo centro em Portugal continental são remanescentes de sistemas que outrora foram tropicais na região assistida pelo NHC.

É muito comum ciclones extratropicais avançarem pra Europa a partir do extremo norte do Atlântico, padrão constante mesmo, e comum afetarem a Baía de Vizcaya e a Península Ibérica a exemplo de Alpha. Anos atrás o NHC ignorava esses sistemas e eu acho muito improvável que nunca nenhum sistema desses tenha tido uma transição pra subtropical

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Um atualização para T.S Beta deve vir em breve.

 

Imagem

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3 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse:

NHC DESIGNA OFICIALMENTE A TEMPESTADE TROPICAL BETA

 

002.png.ca3d42410f9c8ac1b66331bf0c5837be.png001.png.c1b39319950742224039dc84405a51bf.png

000
WTNT32 KNHC 182052
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 93.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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ALPHA CHEGOU AO LANDFALL EM PORTUGAL.

 

 TORNANDO-SE O PRIMEIRO SISTEMA OFICIALMENTE ATIVO A FAZER LANDFALL NAQUELE PAÍS. 

 

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BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alpha Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020

...ALPHA MAKES LANDFALL IN PORTUGAL...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.4N 8.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NNE OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

 

 

Subtropical Storm Alpha Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020

Radar data from Portugal indicated that Alpha made landfall at about 
1830 UTC with a fairly impressive spiral band signature. It is 
estimated that the winds were 45 kt at landfall, and a sustained 
10-minute wind of 39 kt was recorded at Sao Pedro de Noel. The 
minimum central pressure is analyzed at 996 mb at landfall due to a 
999 mb value at Monte Real with a 31-kt sustained wind. Since these 
data were recorded, the radar presentation has deteriorated, and 
satellite imagery suggests the small cyclone could be de-coupling 
from its mid-level center.  The winds are assumed to have come 
down, with a current estimate of 40 kt.  The small cyclone should 
continue to move northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 12-24 
hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. 
No significant changes are required to the forecast for track or 
intensity.

Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found
in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 40.4N   8.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0600Z 42.1N   6.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

CHUVA LOCALMENTE FORTE ATINGE O INTERIOR DE PORTUGAL AGORA. 

001.jpg.1f68caed61d3f1ce56e6cf611ab6c5be.jpg

 

 

 

MONTE REAL, PRÓXIMO DO LOCAL AONDE A TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL ALPHA FEZ LANDFALL REGISTROU RAJADA DE 90km/h

 

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Teddy retorna a Categoria 4.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 190257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
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Beta surpreende e fortalece a uma forte TS.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 190258
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BETA STRONGER...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 92.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
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NHC emite seu ultimo aviso para a historica TS Alpha próximo a Espanha.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190235
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF
VISEU PORTUGAL..
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

 

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Restos de Sally fazendo um passeio pela Flórida.

 

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4 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

Restos de Sally fazendo um passeio pela Flórida.

 

Imagem

Sobre Sally e Ivan:

Causaram mais de 1 bi de dolares em danos

Fizeram landfall no mesmo local, mesmo dia, mês.

Deram um loop e se renenerou (Sally também?)

Mera coincidência.

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Saindo da Extremamente Movimentada temporada de furacões de 2020, Vamos para o pacífico leste, que vem registrando uma pouca movimentação raríssima: uma LPA vem sendo monitorada pelo NHC para possivel desenvolvimento: Lowell.

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form 
during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward 
at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Edited by mario junior
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Em 20/09/2020 em 12:31, Felipe F disse:

Restos de Sally fazendo um passeio pela Flórida.

 

Imagem

 

É por isso que desde sábado está ventando muito aqui na Flórida?

 

Está marcando ventos de até 30 mph....

O dia inteiro ontem e ainda hj assim

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6 horas atrás, Lourenco disse:

 

É por isso que desde sábado está ventando muito aqui na Flórida?

 

Está marcando ventos de até 30 mph....

O dia inteiro ontem e ainda hj assim

Sim.

O sistema não tem apoio dos modelos e do NHC para uma regeneração.

 

An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central
Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated
with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue
moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next
couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through
Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are
expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South
Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to
occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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Paullete está de volta.

Sistema pode durar mais alguns dias e afetar os Açores.

 

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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2 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

Sim.

O sistema não tem apoio dos modelos e do NHC para uma regeneração.

 

An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central
Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated
with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue
moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next
couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through
Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are
expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South
Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to
occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Flando em regeneração, olha quem está de volta:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 220234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower 
eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday 
and Wednesday night. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday.  
Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through 
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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Beta pode fazer landall no Texas como uma tempestade tropical nas próximas horas.

O sistema vai ser o nono ciclone a fazer landfall nos EUA e 2020 deve empatar com 1916 como ano com maior quantidade de landfall no território americano.

 

Imagem

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Teddy já está quase 100% extratropical (destaque para a convecção quase ausente no centro do sistema).

Chuvas fortes e ventos com força de um furacão de categoria 1 podem afetar as Províncias Atlânticas Canadenses.

 

Imagem

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Beta fez landfall na costa do Texas como tempestade tropical.

Rajadas máximas registradas foram de 85 km/h e o grande destaque vai para a chuva e maré ciclônica.

 

Imagem

 

Inundações no Texas.

 

Imagem

 

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Teddy é um gigante de categoria 2.

 

 

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Teddy aproximando do Canadá.

Halifax já registrou rajadas de quase 60 km/h.

 

Imagem

 

Imagem

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BETA E TEDDY JÁ SE FORAM.... E NÃO HÁ MAIS NADA NO MAPA DO NHC.

 

ATÉ ESTRANHA VER MAIS NENHUM OUTRO SISTEMA ATIVO OU A SER OBSERVADO

 

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FINALMENTE O ATLANTICO VAI TER UMA PAZ POR UM PERÍODO.

 

NOS PRÓXIMOS 10 DIAS NÃO HÁ INDICATIVOS DE NOVOS SISTEMAS SIGNIFICANTES NO ATLÂNTICO. 

 

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Esperando um categoria 5 esse ano:

images.jpeg.563e7128caf95a99f08c4e360ce5102f.jpeg

#conservadorismo #Haishen #Laura #Amphan #Harold #JTWC #NHC #categoria4 #categoria5 

Edited by mario junior
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Poxa...

Re-poxa...

Re-contra-poxa...

two_atl_5d0.png.3f289d169b0fbf167131cb9d33f7000b.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Paulette, located about 100 miles south of the 
Azores, are producing a few disorganized showers. Upper-level winds 
are expected to increase later today and no further development is 
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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d40c8519-8058-4218-8536-8c023d0bdaf2.thumb.jpeg.ffde920686eaf502f489745614aa84ed.jpegPróximo nome é Marie.

Esperado para ser ao menos um furacão da categoria 2.

Edited by mario junior
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20 horas atrás, mario junior disse:

E previsto pra ser forte ou fraco?

Tudo incerto ainda. 

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TS Marie se forma no EPAC.

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 292033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 109.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

 

E previsto para ser grande furacão pelo NHC e os demais modelos.

680 
WTPZ43 KNHC 292033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A WindSat microwave image from earlier this morning indicated that 
the tropical cyclone's low-level circulation was becoming better 
defined, with perhaps the formative stage of a cyan ring seen in the 
37-GHz channel.  Visible images also show the center tucked just 
beneath recent bursts of deep convection, and Dvorak estimates have 
risen to T2.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.  These data, 
along with ambiguity analyses of recent ASCAT-B and -C scatterometer 
passes, indicate the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm 
Marie with maximum winds of 35 kt.

Marie's future track is probably the most straightforward part of 
the forecast.  A mid-tropospheric high anchored over the 
southwestern United States is steering Marie westward with an 
initial motion of 275/10 kt.  This high will remain the main driver, 
forcing the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 
days.  By days 4 and 5, Marie is likely to reach a break in the 
ridge and should slow down a bit and turn toward the northwest. 
There are no notable outliers among the track guidance, and the 
small spread among the models yields higher-than-normal confidence 
in the track forecast.  The new NHC forecast is very similar to the 
previous prediction, and is close to the TVCE and HCCA consensus 
aids.

The intensity forecast is a little more challenging, but mostly 
because a good proportion of the guidance suggests that Marie will 
intensify significantly during the next few days.  Relatively low 
deep-layer shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level 
divergence all favor strengthening, and several of the various 
SHIPS Rapid Intensification thresholds are several times higher 
than their climatological means.  In addition, all of the dynamical 
models, the consensus aids, and the GFS-based SHIPS model bring 
Marie to hurricane strength within 24 hours.  Given these signals, 
the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one 
and lies near or just below the intensity consensus in order to 
maintain some continuity.  But given what is shown by some of the 
better-performing intensity models, I would not be surprised if 
subsequent forecasts show a faster rate of intensification or 
a higher peak intensity.  Weakening is expected by days 4 and 5 due 
to cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear.

Marie's 12-ft sea radii are larger than would be expected for a 
small, just-developing tropical storm due to a large fetch of 
southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

18E_intensity_latest.png.18ebef5e891b79a346c528ccbc8e823e.png

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Marie será categoria 4 nessa nova previsão do NHC.

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301443
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

144509_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.2f29790985a4b773074b9141cfce7d7c.png

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GFS e CMC mostra um furacão no Golfo do México, próximo ao dia 10/Outubro.

 

GFS

gfs_mslp_wind_atl_49.thumb.png.a4c0c6f9f2160b21abd91e709ffa043c.png

 

CMC

gem_mslp_wind_atl_39.thumb.png.bf68ecd113f77f5e8416af38bf393679.png

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Merie fortalece a categoria 1.

Sera um poderoso furacão.

204855_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.244c793f13fac11051ee77bf134c706d.png

INIT  30/2100Z 14.3N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
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