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Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste e Central - 2020


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EURO flipped that switch. Ensembles here from weathernerds.org for the following Monday show some spots to watch. GFS way less aggressive right now. Timing coincides with that MJO pulse we have been showing. It's bound to happen as we enter our peak month of September.

 

#1 is a low rider. West or eventual curve up too early to tell. NHC at 30%.

 

#2 is that big wave that was over Africa. Good ensemble support it could develop. Timing would near Lesser Antilles next weekend. NHC at 30%.

 

#3 is another wave coming off Africa down the road. I will be live later tonight after all the days models run.

FB_IMG_1597591910615.jpg

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2 horas atrás, Lourenco disse:

EURO flipped that switch. Ensembles here from weathernerds.org for the following Monday show some spots to watch. GFS way less aggressive right now. Timing coincides with that MJO pulse we have been showing. It's bound to happen as we enter our peak month of September.

 

#1 is a low rider. West or eventual curve up too early to tell. NHC at 30%.

 

#2 is that big wave that was over Africa. Good ensemble support it could develop. Timing would near Lesser Antilles next weekend. NHC at 30%.

 

#3 is another wave coming off Africa down the road. I will be live later tonight after all the days models run.

FB_IMG_1597591910615.jpg

A tradução para quem não entendeu:

----------

O EURO acionou esse botão.  Conjuntos aqui do weathernerds.org para a segunda-feira seguinte mostram alguns locais para assistir.  GFS bem menos agressivo agora.  O tempo coincide com o pulso MJO que temos mostrado.  Está prestes a acontecer quando entramos em nosso mês de pico de setembro.

 

 # 1 é um low rider.  Oeste ou eventual curva para cima muito cedo para dizer.  NHC a 30%.

 

 # 2 é aquela grande onda que atingiu a África.  Ele poderia desenvolver um bom suporte de conjunto.  O tempo seria próximo a Les ser Antilles no próximo fim de semana.  NHC a 30%.

 

 # 3 é outra onda vindo da África pela estrada.  Estarei ao vivo mais tarde esta noite, depois de todos os modelos de dias rodarem.

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NHC mudou previsão e fala em um categoria 4

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 12.4N 100.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 13.4N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 14.8N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 17.7N 110.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 19.1N 111.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 20.4N 112.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 22.7N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 24.7N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
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Não queria alertar os gansos, mas a última vez que vi uma discussão como essa no NHC e as tais condições quase perfeitas para um ciclone tropical, vimos o ciclone tropical mais poderoso já observado e adivinhem só... nessa mesma região (Patricia). Inclusive se vocês olharem as imagens de satélite de Genevieve e verem a animação do inicio da formação de Patricia...nossa, MUITO parecidas. 

 

 

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6 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse:

 

Não queria alertar os gansos, mas a última vez que vi uma discussão como essa no NHC e as tais condições quase perfeitas para um ciclone tropical, vimos o ciclone tropical mais poderoso já observado e adivinhem só... nessa mesma região (Patricia). Inclusive se vocês olharem as imagens de satélite de Genevieve e verem a animação do inicio da formação de Patricia...nossa, MUITO parecidas. 

 

 

 Concordo...

Desde que percebi que as iniciais de Genevieve e Patricia são parecidas, meu cerebro so fala que Genevieve terá até uns 165 mph... Mas, quem sabe, né?

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Furacão Genevieve

145252_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.c4e2867cd0e7349daab391ddda7834fd.png

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 171450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 103.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
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10 minutos atrás, mario junior disse:

Furacão Genevieve

145252_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.c4e2867cd0e7349daab391ddda7834fd.png


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 171450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 103.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Gloria a Deus!

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Genevieve continua se intensificando

Tropical Storm Watch foi emitido para a ponta sul da Baja California Peninsula, México.

NHC vai emitir o primeiro aviso intermediato dentro de 3 horas.

 

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 172037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern portion of the Baja peninsula from Los Barriles on the
east coast to Todos Santos on the west coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
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55 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse:

SAÍDA 12Z DO ECMWF LEVANDO UM FURACÃO CONSIDERÁVEL PARA A COSTA DO USA EM 8-10 DIAS, SISTEMA ESTE QUE HOJE É 98-L NA COSTA DA ÁFRICA

 

002.thumb.jpg.ddad63c31832975d8d5a38669ea532a2.jpg

 

OLHO EM INVEST 98-L. 

 

CENÁRIO EM ABERTO NA SAÍDA DO EURO 12Z ENSEMBLE

 

87035805.thumb.gif.195f6d011cd0ce2e91e21cf50e4860b1.gif

Vamos acompanhar @Rodolfo Alves

 

Na 12z do NAVGEM, mostra curiosamente futuros Laura e Marco, com a Flórida entre eles.

navgem_mslp_uv850_us_30.png

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17 minutos atrás, Lourenco disse:

Vamos acompanhar @Rodolfo Alves

 

Na 12z do NAVGEM, mostra curiosamente futuros Laura e Marco, com a Flórida entre eles.

navgem_mslp_uv850_us_30.png

Lembrando que se laura e Marco se formarem antes do dia 02 de Outubro, baterão os recorde que tempestade com letra L e M que mais cedo se formaram, Ultrapassando Lee e Maria, de 2005.

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Genevieve fortelece a categoria 2.

Do jeito que ganhou força, tem chances de as 00:00 se tornar *talvez* um grande furacão.

597 
WTPZ32 KNHC 172350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

...GENEVIEVE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.3 West. Genevieve is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday.  A turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur by
Tuesday afternoon and continue through at least early Thursday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move
parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. The center of the hurricane is forecast
to pass near or southwest of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Genevieve is expected to become
a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon.

SURF:  Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along
the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja
California peninsula through Wednesday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
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Urgente....

Genevieve acaba de ultrapassar Douglas....

Tem algumas chances de ir para a categoria 5....

114056_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.68fa69c43ace84cbf1971a8b41602198.png

091 
WTPZ32 KNHC 181141
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
600 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...GENEVIEVE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN GENEVIEVE PASSES TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
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Analise do Furacão Isaias:

 

Ventos máximos:         85 mph     }  Pelo NHC.         90 mph     }  Minhas estimativas

Pressão mais baixa:    987 mbar }                              983 mbar }

 

Danos: ≥4.2 Bilhões de dólares

 

Mortes: 18 (5 indiretas)

 

Isaias foi um Danoso e possivelmente mortal furacão que passou sobre o mar do caribe, Porto Rico, Bahamas, EUA e Canada. Seus danos estimados foram de 4,2 bilhões de dolares. Isaias acabou com uma seca no caribe, mas ao mesmo tempo levou pessoas a falecer. Isaias causou 18 mortes enquanto ativo. 

 

 

Isaias pode ter seu nome retirado, sem poder re-usar em 2026.

 

Isaias pode fazer faz parte dos nomes que na primeira vez não é usado, mas na segunda vez que é usado, o nome é retirado.

 

Isaias e um dos furacões mais danosos que se formaram em julho/agosto. 

 

{Enfim, a hipocrisia}

 

 

 

Edited by Miguel Russe
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10 horas atrás, Lourenco disse:

Também achei, mas vai entrar em aguas bem quentes.....e novamente Bahamas  no caminho e provavelmente a Flórida.  Vamos acompanhar....

98L_tracks_latest.png

Mas em sua passagem talvez poderá passar pelas mesmas condições de Josephine...

Mas caso consiga sair meio ileso dessa, poderá sim virar um forte furacão

 

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25 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

O NHC disse isso? 

🤔

Foi o que eu quis dizer kkkk

Aqui a fala real do NHC:

3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and 
Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme 
eastern Atlantic on Friday.  By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation 
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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