Felipe F Posted October 2, 2020 at 12:56 AM Share Posted October 2, 2020 at 12:56 AM Marie 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 2, 2020 at 01:01 AM Share Posted October 2, 2020 at 01:01 AM INVEST 91L pode se tornar TS Gamma amanhã. Sistema deve causar fortes chuvas na península de Yucatãn. Um voo de reconhecimento deve ocorrer amanhã. Um outro sistema tbm já está em observação no Caribe. Ainda incerto a intensidade e trajetória. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 2, 2020 at 02:55 AM Share Posted October 2, 2020 at 02:55 AM Raspou a categoria 4! 196 WTPZ33 KNHC 020234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 122.1W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted October 2, 2020 at 02:12 PM Share Posted October 2, 2020 at 02:12 PM Gamma já ta aqui dobrando a esquina 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 2, 2020 at 05:15 PM Share Posted October 2, 2020 at 05:15 PM ERC em Marie completo 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 3, 2020 at 12:00 AM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 12:00 AM ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted October 3, 2020 at 02:36 PM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 02:36 PM TS Gamma se organizando e ganhando força, quase furacão Cat.1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 3, 2020 at 02:57 PM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 02:57 PM ...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 87.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 3, 2020 at 03:08 PM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 03:08 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 3, 2020 at 05:25 PM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 05:25 PM Gamma faz landfall no México. Voo de reconhecimento enfrentou problemas e não enviou dados. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 3, 2020 at 06:34 PM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 06:34 PM 1 hora atrás, Felipe F disse: Voo de reconhecimento enfrentou problemas e não enviou dados Quais problemaS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 3, 2020 at 08:35 PM Share Posted October 3, 2020 at 08:35 PM 1 hora atrás, mario junior disse: Quais problemaS? Parece ter sido problemas de conexão e depois ficou sem tempo para investigar, pois o sistema já tinha feito landfall. Inundações e quedas de árvores sendo reportadas em Yucatán. Sistema segue como tempestade tropical. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 4, 2020 at 07:39 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 07:39 PM 92L vem persistindo nos ultimos dias com uma organização gradual e já pode ser um TD. NHC propôs 80% de chances de ser tornar uma depressão tropical. Próximo nome do alfabeto grego é Delta. 1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Caribbean Sea, a little less than 100 miles south-southeast of eastern Jamaica. Recent satellite wind data and visible satellite imagery indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move near Jamaica through Monday, and then pass near the Cayman Islands early Tuesday and approach western Cuba by late Tuesday, and interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. The low is forecast to move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or Wednesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 4, 2020 at 07:40 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 07:40 PM Modelos indicam 92L como um forte furacão que está a caminho. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 4, 2020 at 08:38 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 08:38 PM Ue Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2020 20:12 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 26, located in the central Caribbean Sea, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 4, 2020 at 09:07 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 09:07 PM Ferrou, né Nova Orleães?? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 4, 2020 at 09:18 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 09:18 PM Mais um ciclone previsto para afetar Nova Orleans (deve ser o quinto do ano, kkkk). NHC apostando em categoria 2. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 4, 2020 at 09:19 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 09:19 PM HWRF 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 4, 2020 at 10:03 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 10:03 PM 44 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: HWRF Deltinho rs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted October 4, 2020 at 10:13 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 10:13 PM 53 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: Mais um ciclone previsto para afetar Nova Orleans (deve ser o quinto do ano, kkkk). NHC apostando em categoria 2. Parece q a TS Gamma vai esperar pelo Furacão Delta ???? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted October 4, 2020 at 11:19 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 11:19 PM Como estão as previsões meteorológicas em 2020 nos EUA? Não sei se os amigos sabem, mas desde janeiro a NASA vem utilizando modelo desenvolvido pelo Físico brasileiro Saulo Freitas. Parece que já em 2021 o INMET vai passar a adotar também esse novo Modelo (GF). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted October 4, 2020 at 11:53 PM Share Posted October 4, 2020 at 11:53 PM Golfo do México já tá com águas mais amenas. Caribe tá com SST bem elevada ainda. Não me espantaria se 92L tivesse uma intensificação rápida na altura da Ilha Caimã 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 12:04 AM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 12:04 AM HMON coloca um CATEGORIA 4 no golfo. É o modelo mais interessante que vi até aqui em relação ao PTC 26L (Delta). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 12:11 AM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 12:11 AM Olhando bem, quase todos os modelos que vi ate agora nas previsões para Delta mostram o sistema sendo furacão ainda no caribe e alguns apostam rapida intesificação. Eu acho que Delta poderá ser *talvez* um fraco categoria 5, ou talvez algo mais fraco. Seguindo os passos do @Miguel Russe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:10 AM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:10 AM Cuba pode ter um grande problema! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:32 AM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:32 AM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 02:24 AM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 02:24 AM (edited) Απλώς λέω wow για το μοντέλο HWRF για αυτήν την πρόβλεψη της Delta. Simplesmente digo uau para essa previsão do modelo HWRF sobre Delta. Edited October 5, 2020 at 02:27 AM by mario junior 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted October 5, 2020 at 12:16 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 12:16 PM O NHC nomeia TS DELTA no Golfo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:18 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:18 PM TS. Delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:19 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:19 PM Núcleo bem organizado 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:27 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 01:27 PM Águas quentinhas pela frente. Acho que tem boa chance de ter uma rápida intensificação até Cuba e ir perdendo força no Golfo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 02:00 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 02:00 PM Gamma e Delta 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted October 5, 2020 at 02:16 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 02:16 PM Olha, a Caimã vai ter problema. Delta vai passar por lá como um furacão em intensificação. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted October 5, 2020 at 05:56 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 05:56 PM TS Delta, 2020 TS Wilma, 2005 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:11 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:11 PM 2 horas atrás, Tavares disse: TS Delta, 2020 TS Wilma, 2005 Por isso eu disse que Delta pode ser um categoria 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:14 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:14 PM VOO DE RECONHECIMENTO EM DELTA INDICANDO RÁPIDA INTENSIFICAÇÃO! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:17 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:17 PM Pressão quase 15 mbar inferior ao estimado pelo NHC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:28 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:28 PM Possibilidade de RI muito alta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:46 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 08:46 PM TropicalTidbits mostra que o voo de reconhecimento em Delta ja terminou. Porque sera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted October 5, 2020 at 09:24 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 09:24 PM Pela previsão do NHC a TS Delta, vai um pouco mais a West e vai passar por uma rápida intensificação e já atinge o México como um Cat. 3 Hurricane em 36h. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 09:45 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 09:45 PM PRESSÃO DE 977 MBAR FOI ENCONTRADA EM DELTA! 212830 1616N 07919W 6961 03010 9778 +162 //// 126008 011 026 000 05 mas os ventos não aconpanharam a queda e não foram reportados ventos ventos acima de 64 kt no voo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 09:47 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 09:47 PM Uiiiii...... 212200 1626N 07914W 6934 03094 9883 +121 //// 114058 063 057 003 01 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 5, 2020 at 11:47 PM Share Posted October 5, 2020 at 11:47 PM Aeee BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 79.6W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 6, 2020 at 12:37 AM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 12:37 AM (edited) HWRF mostra Delta atingindo Cancún como um categoria 4. Cancún foi a cidade onde o CHAVES (Roberto Bolanos) morou por anos antes de dizer adeus. Edited October 6, 2020 at 12:38 AM by mario junior 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 6, 2020 at 12:45 AM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 12:45 AM HWRF mostra tbm um poderoso cat. 4 (145 mph e 931 mb) no golfo antes de adentrar nas aguas amenas na costa do EUA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 6, 2020 at 02:34 AM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 02:34 AM Cancun já começa os preparos para o Furacão Delta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted October 6, 2020 at 02:57 AM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 02:57 AM Depois de Laura e Marco mais dois ciclones no Golfo.... TS Gamma e Hurricane Delta ! Previsão de um trajeto muito parecido para a dupla. Gamma Delta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted October 6, 2020 at 03:38 AM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 03:38 AM 54 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: Cancun já começa os preparos para o Furacão Delta. Tem uns corais na região de Quintana Roo que são uma pérola, e muito sensíveis até a pressão da água se ela subir uns 5 metros. Imagina quando a água regredir trazendo detritos e poluição do continente. Tem casos de barreiras de corais que foram extintas permanentemente por ciclones tropicais. Quanto à cidade de Cancún, acho o cúmulo da extravagância,. Por mim aqueles hotéis podiam ser varridos pro mar. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted October 6, 2020 at 04:32 AM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 04:32 AM Vem um furacão muito compacto, ou pelo menos com o olho muito pequeno 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted October 6, 2020 at 12:10 PM Share Posted October 6, 2020 at 12:10 PM Bom dia. BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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