Rodolfo Alves Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:00 PM Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:00 PM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:07 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:07 PM 13 minutos atrás, mario junior disse: Vou citar aqui, ja que ninguem citou: If Alpha makes landfall in Portugal as a subtropical cyclone, it will be the first cyclone to do so in history. Se Alpha aterrissar em Portugal como um ciclone subtropical, será o primeiro ciclone a fazê-lo na história. Acho que não einh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:09 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:09 PM 2 minutos atrás, Tavares disse: Acho que não einh. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:14 PM Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:14 PM 20 minutos atrás, mario junior disse: Vou citar aqui, ja que ninguem citou: If Alpha makes landfall in Portugal as a subtropical cyclone, it will be the first cyclone to do so in history. Se Alpha aterrissar em Portugal como um ciclone subtropical, será o primeiro ciclone a fazê-lo na história. NÃO É BEM ASSIM.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:15 PM Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:15 PM BOLETIM OFICIAL DO IPMA (INMET DE PORTUGAL): Informação especial Comunicado válido entre 2020-09-18 16:47:00 e 2020-09-18 23:59:00 Assunto: Ciclone subtropical Alpha A depressão centrada junto à costa do distrito de Leiria, ganhou características subtropicais durante a tarde, revelando uma estrutura organizada nas imagens de satélite. O NHC contatou o IPMA no sentido de ser feita uma avaliação conjunta da situação, tendo-se optado por nomear o ciclone. Esse ciclone foi nomeado de Alpha. Segundo as projeções dos diferentes modelos, após a entrada em terra, o Alpha deverá perder rapidamente intensidade. Com a aproximação da depressão à costa foi possível monitorizar o ciclone com o auxílio do sistema de radar, sendo possível identificar ventos de intensidade muito elevada em altitude, mas relativamente próximo da superfície. Tendo em conta os elementos disponíveis no momento, foi decidido elevar o nível de aviso para laranja os avisos de vento, precipitação e trovoada nos distritos diretamente afetados, Leiria e Coimbra. Tendo em conta o agravar da situação meteorológica, recomenda-se o acompanhamento da previsão e avisos meteorológicos ao longo das próximas horas, consultando:http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.descritiva/http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.significativahttp://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev-sam/ Para mais detalhes sobre a previsão para a navegação marítima consultar:http://www.ipma.pt/pt/maritima/boletins/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:19 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:19 PM 2 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse: NÃO É BEM ASSIM.... Todos os outros sistemas chegaram como pós-tropical, tirando Vince, 2005 que foi uma depressão. Então Alpha seria histórico, pois seria realmente o primeiro ciclone subtropical/tropical com landfall em Portugal Continental. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:25 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:25 PM Wikipédia e suas listas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:35 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 05:35 PM Acho que a inclusão de sistemas subtropicais na "gama" de sistemas observados pelo NHC é mais recente e os ciclones mais antigos listados pelo centro em Portugal continental são remanescentes de sistemas que outrora foram tropicais na região assistida pelo NHC. É muito comum ciclones extratropicais avançarem pra Europa a partir do extremo norte do Atlântico, padrão constante mesmo, e comum afetarem a Baía de Vizcaya e a Península Ibérica a exemplo de Alpha. Anos atrás o NHC ignorava esses sistemas e eu acho muito improvável que nunca nenhum sistema desses tenha tido uma transição pra subtropical 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:02 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:02 PM Alpha faz landfall próximo a Leiria. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:05 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:05 PM Alpha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:07 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:07 PM Um atualização para T.S Beta deve vir em breve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:49 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 06:49 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 18, 2020 at 07:06 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 07:06 PM Beta se forma no Atlântico 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted September 18, 2020 at 08:57 PM Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 08:57 PM NHC DESIGNA OFICIALMENTE A TEMPESTADE TROPICAL BETA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 18, 2020 at 09:00 PM Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 09:00 PM 3 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse: NHC DESIGNA OFICIALMENTE A TEMPESTADE TROPICAL BETA 000 WTNT32 KNHC 182052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 93.1W ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted September 18, 2020 at 09:09 PM Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 at 09:09 PM ALPHA CHEGOU AO LANDFALL EM PORTUGAL. TORNANDO-SE O PRIMEIRO SISTEMA OFICIALMENTE ATIVO A FAZER LANDFALL NAQUELE PAÍS. BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alpha Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...ALPHA MAKES LANDFALL IN PORTUGAL... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.4N 8.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NNE OF LISBON PORTUGAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES Subtropical Storm Alpha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 Radar data from Portugal indicated that Alpha made landfall at about 1830 UTC with a fairly impressive spiral band signature. It is estimated that the winds were 45 kt at landfall, and a sustained 10-minute wind of 39 kt was recorded at Sao Pedro de Noel. The minimum central pressure is analyzed at 996 mb at landfall due to a 999 mb value at Monte Real with a 31-kt sustained wind. Since these data were recorded, the radar presentation has deteriorated, and satellite imagery suggests the small cyclone could be de-coupling from its mid-level center. The winds are assumed to have come down, with a current estimate of 40 kt. The small cyclone should continue to move northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 12-24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. No significant changes are required to the forecast for track or intensity. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 40.4N 8.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 42.1N 6.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED CHUVA LOCALMENTE FORTE ATINGE O INTERIOR DE PORTUGAL AGORA. MONTE REAL, PRÓXIMO DO LOCAL AONDE A TEMPESTADE SUBTROPICAL ALPHA FEZ LANDFALL REGISTROU RAJADA DE 90km/h 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 19, 2020 at 03:01 AM Share Posted September 19, 2020 at 03:01 AM Teddy retorna a Categoria 4. 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190257 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 19, 2020 at 03:02 AM Share Posted September 19, 2020 at 03:02 AM Beta surpreende e fortalece a uma forte TS. 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190258 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BETA STRONGER... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 92.3W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 19, 2020 at 03:04 AM Share Posted September 19, 2020 at 03:04 AM NHC emite seu ultimo aviso para a historica TS Alpha próximo a Espanha. 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 20, 2020 at 04:31 PM Share Posted September 20, 2020 at 04:31 PM Restos de Sally fazendo um passeio pela Flórida. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 20, 2020 at 04:39 PM Share Posted September 20, 2020 at 04:39 PM 4 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: Restos de Sally fazendo um passeio pela Flórida. Sobre Sally e Ivan: Causaram mais de 1 bi de dolares em danos Fizeram landfall no mesmo local, mesmo dia, mês. Deram um loop e se renenerou (Sally também?) Mera coincidência. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 20, 2020 at 04:50 PM Share Posted September 20, 2020 at 04:50 PM (edited) Saindo da Extremamente Movimentada temporada de furacões de 2020, Vamos para o pacífico leste, que vem registrando uma pouca movimentação raríssima: uma LPA vem sendo monitorada pelo NHC para possivel desenvolvimento: Lowell. ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Edited September 20, 2020 at 04:50 PM by mario junior 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted September 21, 2020 at 08:16 PM Share Posted September 21, 2020 at 08:16 PM Em 20/09/2020 em 12:31, Felipe F disse: Restos de Sally fazendo um passeio pela Flórida. É por isso que desde sábado está ventando muito aqui na Flórida? Está marcando ventos de até 30 mph.... O dia inteiro ontem e ainda hj assim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:36 AM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:36 AM 6 horas atrás, Lourenco disse: É por isso que desde sábado está ventando muito aqui na Flórida? Está marcando ventos de até 30 mph.... O dia inteiro ontem e ainda hj assim Sim. O sistema não tem apoio dos modelos e do NHC para uma regeneração. An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:38 AM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:38 AM Paullete está de volta. Sistema pode durar mais alguns dias e afetar os Açores. ...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:39 AM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:39 AM 2 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: Sim. O sistema não tem apoio dos modelos e do NHC para uma regeneração. An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Flando em regeneração, olha quem está de volta: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday. Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Brown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:40 AM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:40 AM Beta pode fazer landall no Texas como uma tempestade tropical nas próximas horas. O sistema vai ser o nono ciclone a fazer landfall nos EUA e 2020 deve empatar com 1916 como ano com maior quantidade de landfall no território americano. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 11:56 AM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 11:56 AM Teddy já está quase 100% extratropical (destaque para a convecção quase ausente no centro do sistema). Chuvas fortes e ventos com força de um furacão de categoria 1 podem afetar as Províncias Atlânticas Canadenses. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 12:02 PM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 12:02 PM Beta fez landfall na costa do Texas como tempestade tropical. Rajadas máximas registradas foram de 85 km/h e o grande destaque vai para a chuva e maré ciclônica. Inundações no Texas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 12:07 PM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 12:07 PM Teddy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:33 PM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 02:33 PM Teddy é um gigante de categoria 2. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 22, 2020 at 06:38 PM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 06:38 PM 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlos Campos Posted September 22, 2020 at 11:52 PM Share Posted September 22, 2020 at 11:52 PM 👆 impressionante! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 23, 2020 at 01:59 AM Share Posted September 23, 2020 at 01:59 AM Teddy aproximando do Canadá. Halifax já registrou rajadas de quase 60 km/h. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eclipse Posted September 23, 2020 at 03:43 AM Share Posted September 23, 2020 at 03:43 AM Um romance turbulento - Teddy ❤️ Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted September 23, 2020 at 10:46 AM Share Posted September 23, 2020 at 10:46 AM TS Beta no Texas, muita chuva 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted September 23, 2020 at 03:15 PM Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 at 03:15 PM BETA E TEDDY JÁ SE FORAM.... E NÃO HÁ MAIS NADA NO MAPA DO NHC. ATÉ ESTRANHA VER MAIS NENHUM OUTRO SISTEMA ATIVO OU A SER OBSERVADO FINALMENTE O ATLANTICO VAI TER UMA PAZ POR UM PERÍODO. NOS PRÓXIMOS 10 DIAS NÃO HÁ INDICATIVOS DE NOVOS SISTEMAS SIGNIFICANTES NO ATLÂNTICO. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 23, 2020 at 03:46 PM Share Posted September 23, 2020 at 03:46 PM (edited) Esperando um categoria 5 esse ano: #conservadorismo #Haishen #Laura #Amphan #Harold #JTWC #NHC #categoria4 #categoria5 Edited September 23, 2020 at 03:51 PM by mario junior 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samihr Hermes Posted September 23, 2020 at 10:54 PM Share Posted September 23, 2020 at 10:54 PM https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21450909/zombie-tropical-storm-paulette-atlantic Uma tempestade tropical zumbi, era só o que me faltava 😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 25, 2020 at 04:50 PM Share Posted September 25, 2020 at 04:50 PM Paz.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 27, 2020 at 02:07 PM Share Posted September 27, 2020 at 02:07 PM Poxa... Re-poxa... Re-contra-poxa... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. The remnants of Paulette, located about 100 miles south of the Azores, are producing a few disorganized showers. Upper-level winds are expected to increase later today and no further development is anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 28, 2020 at 06:01 PM Share Posted September 28, 2020 at 06:01 PM Caribe vai entrar em ação. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 28, 2020 at 10:36 PM Share Posted September 28, 2020 at 10:36 PM 4 horas atrás, Felipe F disse: Caribe vai entrar em ação. E previsto pra ser forte ou fraco? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 29, 2020 at 01:34 AM Share Posted September 29, 2020 at 01:34 AM (edited) Próximo nome é Marie. Esperado para ser ao menos um furacão da categoria 2. Edited September 29, 2020 at 01:34 AM by mario junior 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 29, 2020 at 07:00 PM Share Posted September 29, 2020 at 07:00 PM 20 horas atrás, mario junior disse: E previsto pra ser forte ou fraco? Tudo incerto ainda. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 29, 2020 at 08:56 PM Share Posted September 29, 2020 at 08:56 PM TS Marie se forma no EPAC. 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 292033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 109.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES E previsto para ser grande furacão pelo NHC e os demais modelos. 680 WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A WindSat microwave image from earlier this morning indicated that the tropical cyclone's low-level circulation was becoming better defined, with perhaps the formative stage of a cyan ring seen in the 37-GHz channel. Visible images also show the center tucked just beneath recent bursts of deep convection, and Dvorak estimates have risen to T2.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. These data, along with ambiguity analyses of recent ASCAT-B and -C scatterometer passes, indicate the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Marie with maximum winds of 35 kt. Marie's future track is probably the most straightforward part of the forecast. A mid-tropospheric high anchored over the southwestern United States is steering Marie westward with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. This high will remain the main driver, forcing the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, Marie is likely to reach a break in the ridge and should slow down a bit and turn toward the northwest. There are no notable outliers among the track guidance, and the small spread among the models yields higher-than-normal confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, and is close to the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a little more challenging, but mostly because a good proportion of the guidance suggests that Marie will intensify significantly during the next few days. Relatively low deep-layer shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level divergence all favor strengthening, and several of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification thresholds are several times higher than their climatological means. In addition, all of the dynamical models, the consensus aids, and the GFS-based SHIPS model bring Marie to hurricane strength within 24 hours. Given these signals, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one and lies near or just below the intensity consensus in order to maintain some continuity. But given what is shown by some of the better-performing intensity models, I would not be surprised if subsequent forecasts show a faster rate of intensification or a higher peak intensity. Weakening is expected by days 4 and 5 due to cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear. Marie's 12-ft sea radii are larger than would be expected for a small, just-developing tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 30, 2020 at 02:50 PM Share Posted September 30, 2020 at 02:50 PM Marie será categoria 4 nessa nova previsão do NHC. 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lourenco Posted September 30, 2020 at 09:19 PM Share Posted September 30, 2020 at 09:19 PM GFS e CMC mostra um furacão no Golfo do México, próximo ao dia 10/Outubro. GFS CMC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted September 30, 2020 at 11:15 PM Share Posted September 30, 2020 at 11:15 PM Merie fortalece a categoria 1. Sera um poderoso furacão. INIT 30/2100Z 14.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted October 2, 2020 at 12:54 AM Share Posted October 2, 2020 at 12:54 AM Como foi falado pelo @mario junior, Marie era esperado para ser um poderoso furacão e isso se confirmou. Ciclone já se aproxima da categoria 4. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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