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Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste e Central - 2020


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2 horas atrás, Lourenco disse:

Qual a força dos ventos q atingiram New York com o Hurricane Isaias  ????

A CNN diz q teve rajadas de 70 mph no JFK airport e que seria um record.  

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/weather/skyscrapers-wind-isaias/index.html

 

The largest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin, wind gusts topped 100 mph (160 km/h) in some parts of the New York metropolitan area. Sandy caused a record 14.41 feet (4.39 m) storm surge at Battery Park, New York City, flooding various parts of Lower Manhattan including various tunnels and subway systems, making them inoperable for weeks.

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Eu não sei se é culpa da Isaias, mas em Connecticut teve uma tempestade fortíssima. Muitos estão sem energia e a previsão de reestabelecimento da mesma é de semanas. 

 

Minha família já está sem energia em casa faz 5 dias. Uma árvore caiu em cima da casa do nosso vizinho (ninguém machucado) e no nosso driveway caíram várias árvores.

 

 

 

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18 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse:

LEMBRANDO QUE A LISTA DO ATLÂNTICO TEM 21 NOMES E O NOAA PREVÊ DE 19-25 SISTEMAS. 

 

PODEMOS PELA 2ª VEZ NA HISTÓRIA ESGOTAR TODOS OS NOMES E USAR O ALFABETO GREGO 

 

001.thumb.png.bb8f4fe0dd67cdf94ca31293f18159e7.png

Histórico!

GRAPHIC-UPDATE-2020-Hurricane-Outlook-piechart-080320-3840x2388_0.thumb.png.50e51af80b5584ff2392a092650d6182.png

 

_Extremely_active'_hurricane_season_possible_for_Atlantic_Basin_|_National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration.67d71973345b5b7b6322fc2a31631a1b

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Uma Tropical Wave está no ATL.

NHC não espera nenhum desenvolvimento do sistema devido as condições ruins.

Talvez o sistema possa virar *no máximo* uma fraca TD 11.

392455044_two_atl_2d0(11).png.be7610ddc9ff164528e76a4721aac80b.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands.  Slow development of this system is 
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward. 
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become 
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Uma tropical wave deve se formar e virar TS Elida.

814460535_two_pac_2d1(1).png.6d06752f605f6ba02b0d24d73d93595f.png

 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure 
system located more than 200 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, 
Mexico, has become better defined since yesterday. Thunderstorm 
activity continues to show signs of organization, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the 
system moves west-northwestward, remaining well offshore the coast 
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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NHC avisa que poderá iniciar os avisos para TD 09E.

1015681388_two_pac_2d1(2).png.c49b4093b0b31629ffe3d0d6ccd12cd5.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data and satellite images indicate 
that a tropical depression appears to be forming a couple of 
hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  If this development 
trend continues, advisories will be initiated this evening or 
tonight.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward over 
the next few days, remaining well offshore of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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TD 09E se forma. 

O NHC prevê que se torne furacão Elida, sendo o segundo furacão da trmporada.

023755_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.1c3463deab1f13c3db1b065e21fdd266.png

305 
WTPZ34 KNHC 090236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to 
become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late 
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
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NHC prevendo rapida intensificação para Elida

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
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NHC sobe para 40% as chances de um sistema associado a uma onda trooical virar alguma coisa dentro de 48H.

1684839532_two_atl_2d1(12).png.221187031269b54eda0584d058f1a270.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a 
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands 
continue to show signs of organization.  However, satellite-derived 
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation 
remains elongated.  Environmental conditions appear conducive 
enough to support additional development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it 
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.  
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Josephine?

574806558_two_atl_2d1(13).png.804b4f254b19056b10601776b17aaaf3.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. First-light visible satellite imagery shows that a better-defined 
center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure 
system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity has become more organized since yesterday.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional 
development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical 
depression as early as later today if these development trends 
continue.  The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward 
at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few 
days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for 
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Elida fortalece a categoria 2.

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 111439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 113.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
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TD 11L se forma no ATL.

Deve virar TS Josephine e batero recorde de 10ª tempestade nomeada que mais cedo se formou na história do Atlantico, batendo o recorde da TS Jose em 2005.

553016890_203348_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind(1).png.ede33dd2c34b2a1a847a8681225b38e7.png

000
WTNT31 KNHC 112032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
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Movimento no Pacifico.

Proximos Nomes no Pacifico Central: Hone e Iona

Proximos Nomes no Pacifico Oeste: Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan e Iselle.

1085456954_two_pac_2d0(8).png.9a8b423e101355ba29fda44e8b9a69eb.png

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Elida, located about 500 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1300 miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to 
produce a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next couple of days while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches 
cooler waters over the weekend.  This system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America.  Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend 
or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just 
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form near or west 
of the border between the National Hurricane Center and Central 
Pacific Hurricane Center areas of responsibility.  Some subsequent 
gradual development of this system is possible later this week while 
the system moves slowly westward in the central Pacific basin.  
Future information on this system will be included in Tropical 
Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook is issued under WMO 
header ACPN50 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and is 
available on the web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
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33 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

Aí eu me pergunto: "Se s temporada de 2020 tiver mais tempestades nomeadas que a de 2005 mas tudo nesse nível de TS e H1, vai ser chamada de "a temporada mais ativa do Atlântico Norte"? 

Será a mais ativa em quantidades de Nomes usados, mas inativa em ACE e quantidade de furacões e grandes furacões.

Como em 2014, foi inativa em termos de nomes usados, mas ativa em ACE devido a quantidade media de furacões.

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1 hora atrás, mario junior disse:

Como em 2014, foi inativa em termos de nomes usados, mas ativa em ACE devido a quantidade media de furacões.

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average season in terms of named storms, and an average season in terms of both hurricane and major hurricanes.       

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Pelo visto o mês de Agosto não devemos ter nenhum grande furacão mesmo ?  

Mas parece q o ambiente está se tornando mais favorável para desenvolvimento. 

Vamos aguardar Setembro e Outubro pra ver se confirmam as previsões do NHC e da Colorado State University. 

IMG_20200813_172248.jpg

Edited by Lourenco
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Uma area de baixa pressão está um pouco ao norte de Outer Banks, EUA.

Pode virar uma SD 11 ou TD 11.

Proximo nome é Kyle.

Acho q ja é meio-certo o recorde de KATRINA  de tempestade com a letra K qie mais cedo se formou ser batido por um ciclone bunda.

756054354_two_atl_2d1(14).png.ca75234483b71ffc3584c2944dd50eda.png

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several 
hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. Shower activity has increased in association with a low pressure 
area located about 100 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North 
Carolina.  Some additional development is possible during the next 
couple of days, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form 
during that time as the system moves east-northeastward well 
to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian 
Maritime provinces.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

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Voo de Reconhecimento em Josephine

 

 

AF301 Mission #1 into JOSEPHINE
Type: Unknown  |  Status: En Route

As of 15:36 UTC Aug 14, 2020:

Aircraft Position: 17.85°N 63.18°W
Bearing: 90° at 343 kt
Altitude: 7445 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 8 kt at 121°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0111A-JOSEPHINE_timeseries.png Raw data file
Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0111A-JOSEPHINE.png Raw data file
Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0111A-JOSEPHINE_zoom.png Raw data file
Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0111A-JOSEPHINE_dropsondes.png
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Uma area de baixa pressão está ativa no CPAC.

As condições seguem melhorando, o que deve ajudar a formar uma

TS Hone.1747667232_two_cpac_2d0(1).png.5a92c0b62978e88b61e7bdfa5e5dba4c.png

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2020

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An area of low pressure is located around 550 miles south of Hilo, 
Hawaii. Shower and thunderstorm activity with the feature has 
persisted over the past six hours. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become more conducive for development during 
the next few days and a tropical depression may form later this 
weekend or early next week as the system moves steadily west at 
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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hmmmmm

1666054923_two_pac_2d1(3).png.726a27607f7fb6f50842dcbf8d55c7b3.png

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Eleven-E, located several hundred miles west-southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Advisories are 
also being issued on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 1700 
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system 
located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
continued to become better organized overnight, and it appears 
that a tropical depression or storm is forming.  If these 
development trends continue, advisories will be issued on this 
system this morning.  The low is expected to move generally 
west-northwestward, well offshore of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico during the next few days.  Additional information on this 
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Segundo tropical tidbits, 11E será nomeado Fausto em breve.

 

 

Tropical Storm FAUSTO
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 16, 2020:

Location: 20.2°N 119.0°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt

Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 nm
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm

  Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop): IR Satellite Image

 
Advertisement:
Official Forecast (click to enlarge): Official Forecast
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TD 12E se forma.

É prevista pelo NHC e outros demais modelos para virar um forte furacão.

709 
WTPZ32 KNHC 161444
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY ON MONDAY WHILE REMAINING WELL
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 97.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twelve-E was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 97.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h).  A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward 
speed is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track, 
the center of the depression is forecast to move parallel to but 
well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the next 
couple of days. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to 
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.  Rapid 
strengthening is anticipated on Monday, and the system is forecast 
to become a hurricane by Monday afternoon or Monday night. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will begin affecting portions 
of the southern coast of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
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Previsão e discussão do NHC para 12E:

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161445
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has increased and become 
better organized overnight and this morning.  In fact, bands of 
convection can be seen in both visible and infrared satellite 
imagery around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak 
T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are a consensus 2.0, which supports an 
initial intensity of 30 kt.  The depression lies within a very 
favorable environment for strengthening. These conditions 
consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear are expected 
to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 48-60 hours. Since 
the system is still in its organizational stage, intensification is 
likely to be a little more tempered today, but given these very 
favorable conditions a period of rapid strengthening is anticipated 
to begin by Monday and continue into Tuesday.  The statistical 
guidance and dynamical hurricane models are quite bullish on 
deepening, as are the global models.  The SHIPS RI index is 
showing a 64 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in wind speed over 
the next 72 hours.  Since nearly all of the intensity guidance is 
calling for a rather rapid increase in strength, this gives 
relatively high confidence that the system will become a hurricane 
in a day or two, and likely become a major hurricane within 72 
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP 
correct consensus models. 

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt.  A strong 
deep layer ridge of high pressure over the western United States 
should steer the cyclone on a steady west-northwestward heading over 
the next several days.  The guidance suggests that there will be 
some reduction in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest 
later in the period as an upper-level low/trough retrogrades 
westward well west of the Baja California peninsula. For the first 
advisory package, the dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered 
and the NHC track lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus 
model. 

Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore 
of the southern coast of Mexico, large swell generated by the 
strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of 
the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 11.3N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 11.9N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 12.9N 102.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 14.3N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 15.9N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 17.5N 109.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 19.2N 111.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 23.8N 117.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

 

 

144725_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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