Jump to content
Brasil Abaixo de Zero

Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste e Central - 2020


Recommended Posts

Eight-L já matou uma criança de 10 anos de idade afogada no Mississipi, segundo algumas fontes americanas.

TD 08-L criou um largo eye-feature. Já foram encontrados 1002 mbar, mas não teve registro de ventos de TS. 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

NOAA3 Mission #3 into CYCLONE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance  |  Status: In Storm

As of 02:12 UTC Jul 24, 2020:

Aircraft Position: 25.67°N 92.17°W
Bearing: 45° at 162 kt
Altitude: 786 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 10 kt at 325°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1008.2 mb

Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): recon_NOAA3-0308A-CYCLONE_timeseries.png Raw data file
Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): recon_NOAA3-0308A-CYCLONE.png Raw data file
Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): recon_NOAA3-0308A-CYCLONE_zoom.png Raw data file
Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge): recon_NOAA3-0308A-CYCLONE_dropsondes.png

 

Edited by Miguel Russe
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Um voo de reconhecimento está indo para Gonzalo.

 

 

 

AF304 Mission #1 into GONZALO
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance  |  Status: In Storm

As of 16:41 UTC Jul 24, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 10.02°N 54.68°W
Bearing: 153° at 268 kt
Altitude: 1574 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 31 kt at 80°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1011.0 mb

Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): recon_AF304-0107A-GONZALO_timeseries.png Raw data file
Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): recon_AF304-0107A-GONZALO.png Raw data file
Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): recon_AF304-0107A-GONZALO_zoom.png Raw data file
Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge): recon_AF304-0107A-GONZALO_dropsondes.png
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

De fato, as imagens microondas indicam que o ciclo de substituição da parede do olho está no fim, em algumas horas o olho deve esquentar e limpar um pouco, não espero uma reintensificação por causa da água mais fria e algum ar seco, mas se tivesse em um local úmido e água do mar quente...douglas ia despertar lindamente amanhã hahaha

image.png.fa3ffcb154fd1f3035b05115257faefd.png

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No atlântico, temos agora Gonzalo e Hanna, mas tem tbm uma onda tropical saindo da costa africana que está se organizando gradualmente.

Próximo nome é Isaias.

 

234862339_two_atl_2d1(6).png.0f92b82d6f040bf3c78144425e828ab5.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gonzalo, located less than 500 miles east of the southern 
Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Hanna, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a little 
more more than 200 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas.

A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo 
Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected 
move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several 
days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by 
early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hanna ganhou um olho de médio nivel. Além disso, agora tem 50 mph 999 mbar de intensidade, segundo o NHC.

 

goes16_vis_08L_202007241757_lat27.1-lon267.2.thumb.jpg.fb70918037c53594e2a8968a1e268bb9.jpg

Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft this morning and nearby 
ship D5DY4 indicate that Hanna has strengthened a little. However, 
the aircraft data also showed that Hanna's center had moved or 
reformed a little farther north near the northern edge of the 
convective cloud mass. A partial SSMI/S pass around 1231Z suggested 
that a mid-level eye feature could be forming, but it also possible 
that a dry slot may be intruding into the cloud shield from the 
northwest and west. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on 
aircraft SFMR surface winds of 38-40 kt, and the 1200Z D5DY5 ship 
report of 48 kt at 89 meters elevation, which reduces to a 38-kt 
10-meter wind speed.

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...HANNA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 93.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM E OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was
located by satellite and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 
27.3 North, longitude 93.7 West. Hanna is moving toward the 
west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue 
this afternoon. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, 
followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion through the 
weekend.  On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make 
landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area Saturday 
afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the
tropical cyclone makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after
Hanna moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a ship located 
just east of the center reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by tonight or Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south
Texas.  This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding,
rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river
flooding in south Texas.

3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and
Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila,
Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island including Corpus Christi Bay,
Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location.  Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Após completar agora no inicio da tarde um ciclo de substituição da parede do olho, o Furacão Douglas tem algumas características anulares.

O olho também está 90% limpo e dando algumas chineladas no ar seco agora. olhando nas imagens de satelite, Douglas deu intensificada, contrariando ¼ das palavras que o @PabloMartins disse. MAS, ainda sim Douglas uma hora ou outra vai perder força.

48 minutos atrás, PabloMartins disse:

algumas horas o olho deve esquentar e limpar um pouco, não espero uma reintensificação por causa da água mais fria e algum ar seco

goes17_vis_08E_202007241815_lat16.1-lon218.9.thumb.jpg.4128f9f0e10b74a93ffb714a09080fcd.jpggoes17_ir_08E_202007241825_lat16.1-lon218.9.thumb.jpg.fae1979f1390b72e4b040b0eda5587c3.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

92L saindo da África neste momento.

EURO segue indicando que vai ser um poderoso ciclone.

 

Imagem

 

Imagem

Eu vou seguir o caminho do EURO.

 

Hurricane Isaias: 160 mph and 928 mbar. (Obs: não fiquem estranhando essa previsão, isso e pq gosto de ser exagerado rs)

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hanna tem chances de se tornar furacão, como disse @Felipe F e o NHC.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...HANNA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 94.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay northward to 
Mesquite Bay, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay to Sargent, 
Texas, including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San 
Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay Texas
* Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials. 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed 
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should 
monitor the progress of Hanna.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 94.3 West. Hanna is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should 
continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the 
west-southwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should 
continue through Sunday.  On the forecast track, center of Hanna 
should make landfall along the Texas coast within the 
hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast for the next 24 hours, and 
Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes 
landfall. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves 
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) 
based on nearby oil rig reports.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the 
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by 
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could 
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated 
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano 
Bay, 
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2 to 4 ft 
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft 
North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 
2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to 
the right of the landfall location.  Surge-related flooding depends 
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can 
vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your 
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather 
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area 
Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin 
in the warning area tonight or Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with 
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south 
Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and 
northern Tamaulipas.  This rain may result in life-threatening flash 
flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to 
moderate river flooding in south Texas.

3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and 
Louisiana coasts.

SURF:  Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly 
overnight, across portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHC AUMENTA PARA 50% A CHANCE DE INVEST 92L NO LESTE DO ATLÂNTICO GERAR UM CICLONE TROPICAL EM 5 DIAS

 

1. A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of Cabo Verde Islands.  
This wave is expected to move westward during the next several 
days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week 
when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fui pesquisar como pronuncia "ISAIAS" em inglês e espanhol.

Espanhol é igual português porém com o S sem o nosso som de Z; é uma paroxítona trissílaba com um ditongo na sílaba do meio.

Em inglês fica algo parecido como "AIZÉA" 

Geralmente a letra I "era" usada no ápice da temporada. É a inicial com mais nomes retirados e fica atrás só da letra M (empatado com A, D e E) em números de furacões de Categoria 5 e o Igor (pq eu quero).

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

EURO na última rodada mostra landfall amanhã no Texas com pressão mínima de 979 mbar.

GFS também com a rodada mais forte até o momento e landfall com pressão em 988 mbar.

 

EURO

Imagem

 

Imagem

O modelo MIG-RUSSE na ultima rodada mostra landfall no TX com pressão minima de 969 mbar e 115 mph.

Edited by Miguel Russe
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CPHC vai enviar um Voo de reconhecimento para Douglas.

 

 

AF301 Mission #1 into DOUGLAS
Type: Unknown  |  Status: In Progress

As of 01:49 UTC Jul 25, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 21.32°N 158.08°W
Bearing: 90° at 0 kt
Altitude: 18 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 0 kt at 0°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1016.0 mb

Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0108E-DOUGLAS_timeseries.png Raw data file
Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0108E-DOUGLAS.png Raw data file
Latest 10 Minutes of Obs (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0108E-DOUGLAS_zoom.png Raw data file
Dropsonde Locations and IDs (click to enlarge): recon_AF301-0108E-DOUGLAS_dropsondes.png
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hora atrás, Felipe F disse:

Voo de reconhecimento com problemas no momento.

Uma boia meterorológica está com ventos sustentados em 90 km/h e rajadas de 101 km/h: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kemk

 

Rajada de 118 km/h neste momento.

 

Citar

East Breaks (GoM),GM (EMK) ASOS reports gust of 64 knots (73.7 mph) from E @ 0155Z -- KEMK 250155Z AUTO 10055G64KT 2 1/2SM HZ 27/25 A2961 RMK A01

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Guidelines.