Miguel Russe Posted July 5, 2020 at 11:27 AM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 11:27 AM (edited) Pessoal, alguem me diz se é certo o NHC monitorar esse troço sem nuvens aqui?: Olha só a novidade em chances nos prox. 5 d: 1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible before the trough moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. E então?! Eu achava q o NHC era mais conservador em números de invests! Este sisteminha aí no golfo tem tanta coisa a ser re-feita..... Edited July 5, 2020 at 11:27 AM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 5, 2020 at 11:39 AM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 11:39 AM NHC diz que uma estação no noroeste de Bermuda reportou uma rajada de 43 mph: An automated weather station just northwest of Bermuda recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted July 5, 2020 at 02:51 PM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 02:51 PM 2 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Pessoal, alguem me diz se é certo o NHC monitorar esse troço sem nuvens aqui?: Os caras são dos melhores especialistas em sistemas tropicais dos EUA. Quem somos nós pra discordar deles??? Assim como os caras que editam as páginas de ciclones tropicais no Wikipédia, eles manjam muuuito disso. Quem somos nós pra tentar corrigí-los??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 5, 2020 at 03:13 PM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 03:13 PM (edited) 24 minutos atrás, Tavares disse: Os caras são dos melhores especialistas em sistemas tropicais dos EUA. Quem somos nós pra discordar deles??? Assim como os caras que editam as páginas de ciclones tropicais no Wikipédia, eles manjam muuuito disso. Quem somos nós pra tentar corrigí-los??? Ok, concordo. Pois tbm, quem somos nós para impedí-los de monitorar ciclano? (Furacão) Mas quando fui ver no satellite, não vi nem um único giro. Vcs sabem q eu n sou profissional na parte de furacões, pois sou novo nisso. Em breve, espero conseguir ver algo lá. O NHC podia monitorar o mundo né ?(assim daria muito trabalho). Massssss..... Para n ficar 999% offtopic, 05L não virou edouard. Edited July 5, 2020 at 03:14 PM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted July 5, 2020 at 05:20 PM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 05:20 PM 1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Mas quando fui ver no satellite, não vi nem um único giro. Circulação não é critério pra monitorar ou não uma área que reúna condições pra um futuro desenvolvimento de sistema ciclônico. Exemplo mais claro é o ciclone da última semana no Sul do Brasil. E junto com os gráficos, o NHC divulga também boletins explicando o porquê dos gráficos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 5, 2020 at 05:35 PM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 05:35 PM 12 minutos atrás, Tavares disse: Circulação não é critério pra monitorar ou não uma área que reúna condições pra um futuro desenvolvimento de sistema ciclônico. Exemplo mais claro é o ciclone da última semana no Sul do Brasil. E junto com os gráficos, o NHC divulga também boletins explicando o porquê dos gráficos. Certo! Mas agora sim saiu minha cegueira burra sobre ciclones, pois aqui também aprendo muitas coisas. Mas agora sim, tbm vi um giro. NHC diz em 20% de chances de se formar algo nas prox. 24H. E 40% p os 5d. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. 1. Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers near its center, and some slight development is possible before it moves inland early Monday. The broader low pressure system is forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 6, 2020 at 02:44 AM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 02:44 AM TS. Dudu se forma no atlantico. Deve virar extratropical Amanhã cedo. Edouard é a tormenta com a letra E que mais cedo se formou em toda a história. Mas, como nosso querido amigo Pablo Martins disse, não tem tanta importância a tormenta ter recordes se e sem pouca vida e é fraca e se é no subtropico BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 56.9W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.9 West. Edouard is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and an even faster motion in that general direction is anticipated during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 6, 2020 at 03:05 AM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 03:05 AM T.S Edouard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 6, 2020 at 03:07 AM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 03:07 AM INVEST 98L 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 6, 2020 at 05:07 AM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 05:07 AM (edited) 2 horas atrás, Felipe F disse: INVEST 98L Uma das tormentas mais fofas q já vi :-0 Edited July 6, 2020 at 05:10 AM by Miguel Russe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted July 6, 2020 at 05:22 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 05:22 PM (edited) 97E está se intensificando rapidamente, pois entrou nas aguas de temperatura de 31°C. Duvido q o NHC n atualize 97E para TD 05E ou TS Cristina. GFS prevendo um categoria 3 mínimo. Edited July 6, 2020 at 05:25 PM by mario junior 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 6, 2020 at 07:16 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 07:16 PM INVEST 98L está no interior da Geórgia neste momento. O sistema deve voltar ao mar dentro de 24h e tem boas chances de fortalecer para tempestade tropical Fay. Sistema deve ser monitorado para futuros impactos na Costa Leste dos EUA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 6, 2020 at 07:17 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 07:17 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 6, 2020 at 07:18 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 07:18 PM 3 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: INVEST 98L está no interior da Geórgia neste momento. O sistema deve voltar ao mar dentro de 24h e tem boas chances de fortalecer para tempestade tropical Fay. Sistema deve ser monitorado para futuros impactos na Costa Leste dos EUA. Se 98L virar Fay, vai ser a TS que mais cedo se formou com a letra F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 6, 2020 at 08:51 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 08:51 PM TD 05E finalmente se formou. NHC e os outros demais modelos dizem que o futuro Cristina será um furacão. BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 99.7W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and it could become a hurricane on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted July 6, 2020 at 09:44 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 09:44 PM 51 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse: TD 05E finalmente se formou. NHC e os outros demais modelos dizem que o futuro Cristina será um furacão. Não sei quais foram as intenções do NHC de classificar o futuro cristina apenas como TD. Todo mundo estima que a Depressão tem no minimo 45 mph! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted July 6, 2020 at 09:57 PM Share Posted July 6, 2020 at 09:57 PM Cristina: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 12:12 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 12:12 AM (edited) 05E agora é dor no pancreas pra mim. NHC não tem coragem de fazer um aviso especial para atualizar 05E p TS Estou morrendo de medo do NHC n atualizar 05E p Cristina. Minhas estimativas variam entre 50 e 60 mph, e pressão de 996 ou 993 mbar. E tirando isso, estou em casa torcendo para que meu teste de Covid fique negativo, pq tive dor de cabeça e febre😣 Mas, deus abençoe todos para q vcs passem o sufoco de ansiedade q estou Edited July 7, 2020 at 12:14 AM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted July 7, 2020 at 01:54 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 01:54 AM 1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse: 05E agora é dor no pancreas pra mim. NHC não tem coragem de fazer um aviso especial para atualizar 05E p TS Estou morrendo de medo do NHC n atualizar 05E p Cristina. Minhas estimativas variam entre 50 e 60 mph, e pressão de 996 ou 993 mbar. E tirando isso, estou em casa torcendo para que meu teste de Covid fique negativo, pq tive dor de cabeça e febre😣 Mas, deus abençoe todos para q vcs passem o sufoco de ansiedade q estou Fazer aviso pra tempestade há 2.000 km de distância da costa porque tu ta com ansiedade? Te orienta kkk 50 60 mph uma ova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 01:58 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 01:58 AM 4 minutos atrás, PabloMartins disse: Fazer aviso pra tempestade há 2.000 km de distância da costa porque tu ta com ansiedade? Te orienta kkk 50 60 mph uma ova. Impressão minha ou vc leu meu corpo? Kkkkklk e ansiedade msm heheh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:00 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:00 AM Mas, até a cortesia de Levi Cowan - Tropical Tidbits - estima que Five-E seja uma TS. Tropical Storm FIVEAs of 00:00 UTC Jul 07, 2020: Location: 10.9°N 100.8°WMaximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan ktMinimum Central Pressure: 1005 mbEnvironmental Pressure: 1010 mbRadius of Circulation: 120 NMRadius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant: 0 NM 30 NM 0 NM 30 NM Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop): Advertisement: Official NHC Forecast (click to enlarge): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:02 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:02 AM (edited) Tempestade Tropical Five: Edited July 7, 2020 at 02:06 AM by Miguel Russe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:05 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:05 AM Na última saída, os demais modelos preveem categoria 1, 2 e até mesmo categoria 3! Exemplo de Modelo que prevê um cat. 3 é um tal de Ship Ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:35 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:35 AM 31 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Mas, até a cortesia de Levi Cowan - Tropical Tidbits - estima que Five-E seja uma TS. Tropical Storm FIVEAs of 00:00 UTC Jul 07, 2020: Location: 10.9°N 100.8°WMaximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan ktMinimum Central Pressure: 1005 mbEnvironmental Pressure: 1010 mbRadius of Circulation: 120 NMRadius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant: 0 NM 30 NM 0 NM 30 NM Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop): Advertisement: Official NHC Forecast (click to enlarge): Esse site mostra a atualização futura. O NHC ou JTWC tem quase 3 horas quando essa atualização aparece, pra mudar alguma coisa. Isso geralmente ocorre em situações onde tem investigação com avião de reconhecimento, pois quando se tem, eles não usam estimativas de satélite por motivos óbvios. Já cansei de ver esse site mostrar X e na hora do NHC publicar o aviso, eles publicam Y. Se tu olhou nesse site às 22h que já se classifica como "tempestade tropical", isso significa que no próximo aviso público eles irão atualizar a classificação, eles não vão sair correndo pra arrumar abrindo um aviso especial. Aviso especial eles usam apenas em casos obviamente especiais, caso de uma intenficação explosiva, algum sistema que está se formando próximo de uma zona habitada... Não emitem aviso especial em tempestades que não indicam risco iminente, quem dirá uma que está no meio do pacífico nordeste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:38 AM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 02:38 AM (edited) 10 minutos atrás, PabloMartins disse: Esse site mostra a atualização futura. O NHC ou JTWC tem quase 3 horas quando essa atualização aparece, pra mudar alguma coisa. Isso geralmente ocorre em situações onde tem investigação com avião de reconhecimento, pois quando se tem, eles não usam estimativas de satélite por motivos óbvios. Já cansei de ver esse site mostrar X e na hora do NHC publicar o aviso, eles publicam Y. Se tu olhou nesse site às 22h que já se classifica como "tempestade tropical", isso significa que no próximo aviso público eles irão atualizar a classificação, eles não vão sair correndo pra arrumar abrindo um aviso especial. Aviso especial eles usam apenas em casos obviamente especiais, caso de uma intenficação explosiva, algum sistema que está se formando próximo de uma zona habitada... Não emitem aviso especial em tempestades que não indicam risco iminente, quem dirá uma que está no meio do pacífico nordeste. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 101.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 101.3 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Edited July 7, 2020 at 02:44 AM by Miguel Russe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 7, 2020 at 06:41 PM Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 06:41 PM Cristina segue como uma fraca TS com a mesma força de ontem (65 km/h e 29.68 inhg)depois de sofrer com o ar seco e um pouco de shear, mais já está se reorganizando depois de passar a madrugada com o centro exposto. Mas, 98L está se organizando de uma maneira rara, pois já está com um aspecto de uma boa TD teria no mar. O NHC aumentou as chances de formação de 48h para 30%. 5D segue com os 40%. ropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Georgia continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern U.S. The low is expected to move generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states and some development of this system is possible later this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted July 7, 2020 at 11:28 PM Author Share Posted July 7, 2020 at 11:28 PM COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY LANÇOU SUA PREVISÃO PARA A TEMPORADA DE FURACÕES 2020. ELES ESTÃO PREVENDO 20 TEMPESTADES TROPICAIS (CONTANDO COM OS 5 ATUAIS), 9 FURACÕES E 4 GRANDES FURACÕES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 8, 2020 at 12:33 AM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 12:33 AM (edited) 6 horas atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY LANÇOU SUA PREVISÃO PARA A TEMPORADA DE FURACÕES 2020. ELES ESTÃO PREVENDO 20 TEMPESTADES TROPICAIS (CONTANDO COM OS 5 ATUAIS), 9 FURACÕES E 4 GRANDES FURACÕES Também lancei minha previsão! Atlântico: Tormentas Tropicais:- 22 ( contando as 5 que ja tiveram ) Furacões: 10 Grandes Furacões: 7 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 203 Pacifico Leste e Central: Tormentas Tropicais: 18 ( contando as 3 que ja tiveram ) Furacões: 11 Grandes Furacões: 8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 278 Pacífico Oeste: Tormentas Tropicais: 27 ( contando as 2 que tiveram ) Tufões: 18 Super Tufões: 8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 308 Edit: se acharem exageradas minhas previsões, fiquem tranquilos! Pois apenas 2 vezes que quase aceitei alguma previsão! Edited July 8, 2020 at 05:45 AM by Miguel Russe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 8, 2020 at 12:38 AM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 12:38 AM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 8, 2020 at 04:32 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 04:32 PM 98L acaba de reemergir no mar. Aguas das carolinas estão nos 29 graus. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 8, 2020 at 04:39 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 04:39 PM Costa Leste deve seguir acompanhando o desenvolvimento deste sistema. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 8, 2020 at 04:40 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 04:40 PM No Pacífico, temos Cristina que segue se intensificando. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted July 8, 2020 at 09:14 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 09:14 PM 98L ja emergiu no mar e está em aguas quentes de 28 graus. Deve virar TS Fay e bater o recorde de sexta tempestade que mais cedo se formou. O recorde atual pertence a TS Franklin, de 2005, que se formou no dia 21 de julho. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted July 8, 2020 at 09:16 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 09:16 PM Cristina segue como uma forte tempestade tropical, com 60 mph e 998 mbar. Eu já não dou chances para cristina virar furacão. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 8, 2020 at 11:43 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 11:43 PM 2 horas atrás, mario junior disse: 98L ja emergiu no mar e está em aguas quentes de 28 graus. Deve virar TS Fay e bater o recorde de sexta tempestade que mais cedo se formou. O recorde atual pertence a TS Franklin, de 2005, que se formou no dia 21 de julho. Apocalipse! Coronavirus, muito furacão, peste negra na mongolia, ciclones no sul do BR... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted July 8, 2020 at 11:49 PM Share Posted July 8, 2020 at 11:49 PM 6 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Apocalipse! Coronavirus, muito furacão, peste negra na mongolia, ciclones no sul do BR... Tudo isso que tu citou já aconteceu, me questiono porque só agora virou assunto 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted July 9, 2020 at 12:54 AM Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 12:54 AM UMA ÁREA DE BAIXA PRESSÃO QUE IRÁ EMERGIR NA COSTA DA CAROLINA DO NORTE AMANHÃ TEM AGORA 80% DE CHANCES DE GERAR UMA TEMPESTADE TROPICAL OU SUBTROPICAL NO FINAL DESTA SEMANA, SEGUNDO O NHC For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure located about 60 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. PROJEÇÃO DO MODELO EUROPEU SUGERE QUE A TEMPESTADE TROPICAL FAÇA LANDFALL EM LONG ISLAND, MUITO PRÓXIMO OU SOBRE A CIDADE DE NOVA YORK NO SÁBADO. A PRINCIPAL AMEAÇA SERÃO AS CHUVAS. OS ACUMULADOS PODEM SUPERAR OS 100mm EM APENAS 1 DIA. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 9, 2020 at 04:44 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 04:44 PM NHC mandou um voo de reconhecimento há pouco p investigar 98L. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 9, 2020 at 05:48 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 05:48 PM Voo de reconhecimemto continua em 98L. Já encontraram ventos de tempestade tropical. rota do voo de reconhecimento até agora: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted July 9, 2020 at 08:47 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 08:47 PM Special Message from NHC Issued 9 Jul 2020 20:17 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT. Fay acaba de se formar no atlantico. bateu recorde de sexta tempestade que mais cedo se formou. O recorde atual pertence a TS Franklin, de 2005, que se formou no dia 21 de julho. Top News of the Day... view past news 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 9, 2020 at 08:52 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 08:52 PM T.S Fay 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted July 9, 2020 at 09:03 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 09:03 PM 11 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: T.S Fay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 9, 2020 at 09:04 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 09:04 PM T.S Fay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 9, 2020 at 09:41 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 09:41 PM NHC emitiu Tropical Storm Warning para as regiões de Nova York. Fay deve ser a tormenta mais forte a atingir NY desde Sandy em 2012. NHC porojeta um landfall de 50 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 9, 2020 at 11:17 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 11:17 PM NHC deve atualizar cristina para um furacão em breve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted July 9, 2020 at 11:46 PM Share Posted July 9, 2020 at 11:46 PM FF ordinária > Fay. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:35 PM Share Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:35 PM Fay está com raízes extratropicais. Tem ventos de 60 mph e 999 mbar. Enquanto o Fay de 2020 é do começo de Julho, O Fay de 2014 é de Outubro, porém mais forte😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:36 PM Share Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:36 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:37 PM Share Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:37 PM (edited) T.S Fay Edited July 10, 2020 at 05:39 PM by Felipe F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:42 PM Share Posted July 10, 2020 at 05:42 PM NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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