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Furacões no Atlântico Norte e Pacífico Leste e Central - 2020


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Pessoal, alguem me diz se é certo o NHC monitorar esse troço sem nuvens aqui?:1902341539_two_atl_2d1(4).png.fb020d0c52fe325e8ac7dbce0d679255.png

Olha só a novidade em chances nos prox. 5 d:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some 
slight development of this system is possible before the trough 
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday.  The 
system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore 
of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where environmental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

E então?! Eu achava q o NHC era mais conservador em números de invests!

Este sisteminha aí no golfo tem tanta coisa a ser re-feita.....

Edited by Miguel Russe
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2 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Pessoal, alguem me diz se é certo o NHC monitorar esse troço sem nuvens aqui?:

Os caras são dos melhores especialistas em sistemas tropicais dos EUA. Quem somos nós pra discordar deles???

Assim como os caras que editam as páginas de ciclones tropicais no Wikipédia, eles manjam muuuito disso. Quem somos nós pra tentar corrigí-los???

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24 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

Os caras são dos melhores especialistas em sistemas tropicais dos EUA. Quem somos nós pra discordar deles???

Assim como os caras que editam as páginas de ciclones tropicais no Wikipédia, eles manjam muuuito disso. Quem somos nós pra tentar corrigí-los???

Ok, concordo. Pois tbm, quem somos nós para impedí-los de monitorar ciclano? (Furacão)

Mas quando fui ver no satellite, não vi nem um único giro. Vcs sabem q eu n sou profissional na parte de furacões, pois sou novo nisso. Em breve, espero conseguir ver algo lá. O NHC podia monitorar o mundo né ?(assim daria muito trabalho). Massssss.....

Para n ficar 999% offtopic, 05L não virou edouard.

 

Edited by Miguel Russe
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1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Mas quando fui ver no satellite, não vi nem um único giro.

Circulação não é critério pra monitorar ou não uma área que reúna condições pra um futuro desenvolvimento de sistema ciclônico. Exemplo mais claro é o ciclone da última semana no Sul do Brasil.

E junto com os gráficos, o NHC divulga também boletins explicando o porquê dos gráficos. 

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12 minutos atrás, Tavares disse:

Circulação não é critério pra monitorar ou não uma área que reúna condições pra um futuro desenvolvimento de sistema ciclônico. Exemplo mais claro é o ciclone da última semana no Sul do Brasil.

E junto com os gráficos, o NHC divulga também boletins explicando o porquê dos gráficos. 

Certo!

Mas agora sim saiu minha cegueira burra sobre ciclones, pois aqui também aprendo muitas coisas.

Mas agora sim, tbm vi um giro. NHC diz em 20% de chances de se formar algo nas prox. 24H. E 40% p os 5d.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

1. Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low 
pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure 
near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers 
near its center, and some slight development is possible before it 
moves inland early Monday. The broader low pressure system is 
forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the 
Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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TS. Dudu se forma no atlantico.

Deve virar extratropical Amanhã cedo.

Edouard é a tormenta com a letra E que mais cedo se formou em toda a história.

Mas, como nosso querido amigo Pablo Martins disse, não tem tanta importância a tormenta 

ter recordes se e sem pouca vida e é fraca e se é no subtropico


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 56.9W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.9 West. Edouard is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and an even 
faster motion in that general direction is anticipated during the 
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is 
forecast to become post-tropical on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

023909_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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3 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

INVEST 98L está no interior da Geórgia neste momento.

O sistema deve voltar ao mar dentro de 24h e tem boas chances de fortalecer para tempestade tropical Fay.

Sistema deve ser monitorado para futuros impactos na Costa Leste dos EUA.

 

Imagem

 

Se 98L virar Fay, vai ser a TS que mais cedo se formou com a letra F?

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TD 05E finalmente se formou.

NHC e os outros demais modelos dizem que o futuro Cristina será um furacão.204051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.dd2f4898a3e3d1881ef1f665f09e6fee.png1806409446_two_pac_2d0(6).png.2fa591a9de65b1f1b6d5c184b34f2a7a.png

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 99.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 99.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few 
days. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours and the 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and it 
could become a hurricane on Wednesday. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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51 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

TD 05E finalmente se formou.

NHC e os outros demais modelos dizem que o futuro Cristina será um furacão.204051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.dd2f4898a3e3d1881ef1f665f09e6fee.png1806409446_two_pac_2d0(6).png.2fa591a9de65b1f1b6d5c184b34f2a7a.png

Não sei quais foram as intenções do NHC de classificar o futuro cristina apenas como TD.

Todo mundo estima que a Depressão tem no minimo 45 mph!

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05E agora é dor no pancreas pra mim.

NHC não tem coragem de fazer um aviso especial para atualizar 05E p TS

Estou morrendo de medo do NHC n atualizar 05E p Cristina.

Minhas estimativas variam entre 50 e 60 mph, e pressão de 996 ou 993 mbar.

E tirando isso, estou em casa torcendo para que meu teste de Covid fique negativo, pq tive dor de cabeça e febre😣

Mas, deus abençoe todos para q vcs passem o sufoco de ansiedade q estou

 

Edited by Miguel Russe
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1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

05E agora é dor no pancreas pra mim.

NHC não tem coragem de fazer um aviso especial para atualizar 05E p TS

Estou morrendo de medo do NHC n atualizar 05E p Cristina.

Minhas estimativas variam entre 50 e 60 mph, e pressão de 996 ou 993 mbar.

E tirando isso, estou em casa torcendo para que meu teste de Covid fique negativo, pq tive dor de cabeça e febre😣

Mas, deus abençoe todos para q vcs passem o sufoco de ansiedade q estou

 

Fazer aviso pra tempestade há 2.000 km de distância da costa porque tu ta com ansiedade? Te orienta kkk

50 60 mph uma ova.

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Mas, até a cortesia de Levi Cowan - Tropical Tidbits - estima que Five-E seja uma TS.

Tropical Storm FIVE
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 07, 2020:
 
Location: 10.9°N 100.8°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
 
0 NM 30 NM
0 NM 30 NM
Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop):IR Satellite Image

 
Advertisement:
Official NHC Forecast (click to enlarge):NHC Forecast Track
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31 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse:

Mas, até a cortesia de Levi Cowan - Tropical Tidbits - estima que Five-E seja uma TS.

Tropical Storm FIVE
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 07, 2020:
 
Location: 10.9°N 100.8°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
 
0 NM 30 NM
0 NM 30 NM
Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop):IR Satellite Image

 
Advertisement:
Official NHC Forecast (click to enlarge):NHC Forecast Track

Esse site mostra a atualização futura. O NHC ou JTWC tem quase 3 horas quando essa atualização aparece, pra mudar alguma coisa. Isso geralmente ocorre em situações onde tem investigação com avião de reconhecimento, pois quando se tem, eles não usam estimativas de satélite por motivos óbvios. Já cansei de ver esse site mostrar X e na hora do NHC publicar o aviso, eles publicam Y. Se tu olhou nesse site às 22h que já se classifica como "tempestade tropical", isso significa que no próximo aviso público eles irão atualizar a classificação, eles não vão sair correndo pra arrumar abrindo um aviso especial. Aviso especial eles usam apenas em casos obviamente especiais, caso de uma intenficação explosiva, algum sistema que está se formando próximo de uma zona habitada... Não emitem aviso especial em tempestades que não indicam risco iminente, quem dirá uma que está no meio do pacífico nordeste. 

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10 minutos atrás, PabloMartins disse:

Esse site mostra a atualização futura. O NHC ou JTWC tem quase 3 horas quando essa atualização aparece, pra mudar alguma coisa. Isso geralmente ocorre em situações onde tem investigação com avião de reconhecimento, pois quando se tem, eles não usam estimativas de satélite por motivos óbvios. Já cansei de ver esse site mostrar X e na hora do NHC publicar o aviso, eles publicam Y. Se tu olhou nesse site às 22h que já se classifica como "tempestade tropical", isso significa que no próximo aviso público eles irão atualizar a classificação, eles não vão sair correndo pra arrumar abrindo um aviso especial. Aviso especial eles usam apenas em casos obviamente especiais, caso de uma intenficação explosiva, algum sistema que está se formando próximo de uma zona habitada... Não emitem aviso especial em tempestades que não indicam risco iminente, quem dirá uma que está no meio do pacífico nordeste. 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 101.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 101.3 West.  Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days, 
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 
hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday 
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
Edited by Miguel Russe
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Cristina segue como uma fraca TS com a mesma força de ontem (65 km/h e 29.68 inhg)depois de sofrer com o ar seco e um pouco de shear, mais já está se reorganizando depois de passar a madrugada com o centro exposto.

Mas, 98L está se organizando de uma maneira rara, pois já está com um aspecto de uma boa TD teria no mar. O NHC aumentou as chances de formação de 48h para 30%.

5D segue com os 40%.

760953925_two_atl_2d0(4).png.5def2560b1522279c71927695cf99b88.png485771606_two_atl_5d0(2).png.11d21d0e135048a3a7526e0db338c5db.png

 

ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Georgia
continues to produce a large area of showers and heavy rain over
portions of the southeastern U.S. The low is expected to move
generally northeastward toward the coast of the Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic states and some development of this system is possible
later this week if it moves over water. Regardless of development,
the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could
cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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6 horas atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse:

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY LANÇOU SUA PREVISÃO PARA A TEMPORADA DE FURACÕES 2020.

 

ELES ESTÃO PREVENDO 20 TEMPESTADES TROPICAIS (CONTANDO COM OS 5 ATUAIS), 9 FURACÕES E 4 GRANDES FURACÕES

 

001.thumb.jpg.8df9c96a3faf62365bdaaa8a121b93cb.jpg

Também lancei minha previsão!

 

Atlântico:

Tormentas Tropicais:- 22 ( contando as 5 que ja tiveram )

Furacões: 10

Grandes Furacões: 7

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 203

 

Pacifico Leste e Central:

Tormentas Tropicais: 18  ( contando as 3 que ja tiveram )

Furacões: 11

Grandes Furacões: 8

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 278

 

Pacífico Oeste:

Tormentas Tropicais: 27 ( contando as 2 que tiveram )

Tufões: 18
Super Tufões: 8

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 308

 

Edit: se acharem exageradas minhas previsões, fiquem tranquilos! Pois apenas 2 vezes que quase aceitei alguma previsão!

Edited by Miguel Russe
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South 
Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce 
a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the 
southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly 
eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday. 
By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move 
generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the 
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or 
subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves 
over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of 
development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall 
that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern 
U.S. during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

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1577557114_two_atl_2d0(5).png.92622cea3c50f16b211760bd0b18fdae.png

 

98L acaba de reemergir no mar.

Aguas das carolinas estão nos 29 graus.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of 
northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic 
waters.  The low is expected to move northeastward near or just 
offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then 
turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast 
Friday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form 
within the next couple of days.  Regardless of development, the low 
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause 
some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the 
coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few 
days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer 
Banks through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

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No Pacífico, temos Cristina que segue se intensificando.145847_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.f32c908579649be65184ff31952b178c.png

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was 
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the 
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected 
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the 
cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and 
Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
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2 horas atrás, mario junior disse:

98L ja emergiu no mar e está em aguas quentes de 28 graus.

Deve virar TS Fay e bater o recorde de sexta tempestade que mais cedo se formou. O recorde atual pertence a  TS Franklin, de 2005, que se formou no dia 21 de julho.

Apocalipse! Coronavirus, muito furacão, peste negra na mongolia, ciclones no sul do BR...

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UMA ÁREA DE BAIXA PRESSÃO QUE IRÁ EMERGIR NA COSTA DA CAROLINA DO NORTE AMANHÃ TEM AGORA 80% DE CHANCES DE GERAR UMA TEMPESTADE TROPICAL OU SUBTROPICAL NO FINAL DESTA SEMANA, SEGUNDO O NHC

 

002.png.2409e2395b5504b0d7736c3879bc4a30.png

 

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located about 60 miles east-southeast of 
Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic 
waters and portions of eastern North Carolina.  The low is expected 
to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina 
Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move 
along the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or 
subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. 
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally 
heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions 
of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern 
New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible 
along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday, and along 
the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and 
Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system and refer to products from your local National Weather 
Service office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

 

PROJEÇÃO DO MODELO EUROPEU SUGERE QUE A TEMPESTADE TROPICAL FAÇA LANDFALL EM LONG ISLAND, MUITO PRÓXIMO OU SOBRE A CIDADE DE NOVA YORK NO SÁBADO.

 

A PRINCIPAL AMEAÇA SERÃO AS CHUVAS. OS ACUMULADOS PODEM SUPERAR OS 100mm EM APENAS 1 DIA.

 

001.thumb.jpg.ef83f705fd0566ea54084e1bfaccfde6.jpg

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Special Message from NHC Issued 9 Jul 2020 20:17 UTC   
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just east of North Carolina, at 5 pm EDT.

Fay acaba de se formar no atlantico.

bateu recorde de sexta tempestade que mais cedo se formou. O recorde atual pertence a  TS Franklin, de 2005, que se formou no dia 21 de julho.

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