Miguel Russe Posted June 22, 2020 at 08:25 PM Share Posted June 22, 2020 at 08:25 PM E enquanto isso no pacifico leste, O NHC deixa um belo movimento de Invest's Tres com media chance e 1 com uma baixa chance. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves generally westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three days while the disturbance moves westward. After that time, cooler waters are likely to inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 3. An area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Development is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 22, 2020 at 08:47 PM Share Posted June 22, 2020 at 08:47 PM Subtropical Depression 04L se formou as 17:30 do horario de Brasilia. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted June 22, 2020 at 08:53 PM Share Posted June 22, 2020 at 08:53 PM ST4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 22, 2020 at 09:20 PM Share Posted June 22, 2020 at 09:20 PM 27 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: ST4 Ja tem o olho subtropical. Agora so falta 04L ser nomeado Dolly guaraná Dolly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:04 AM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:04 AM 6 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Ja tem o olho subtropical. Agora so falta 04L ser nomeado Dolly guaraná Dolly Meu deus, tu é uma figura kkkkk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:36 PM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:36 PM 19 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Ja tem o olho subtropical. Agora so falta 04L ser nomeado Dolly guaraná Dolly Pronto! Tá aí a sua Dolly. ======================================================================= 000 WTNT64 KNHC 231613 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. In addition, the wind field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a tropical storm. A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast. SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg/Brown 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:48 PM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:48 PM (edited) 13 minutos atrás, Tavares disse: Pronto! Tá aí a sua Dolly. ======================================================================= 000 WTNT64 KNHC 231613 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. In addition, the wind field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a tropical storm. A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast. SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg/Brown Valeu✌ Estão servidos? Edited June 23, 2020 at 04:49 PM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edsr97 Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:54 PM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 04:54 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 23, 2020 at 06:12 PM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 06:12 PM NHC monitora 4 areas no momento. Proximos nomes são: Boris, Cristina, Douglas e Elida. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. A nearly stationary area of low pressure is located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since yesterday, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of days, but the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters after that time which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted June 23, 2020 at 07:26 PM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 07:26 PM Dolly 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 23, 2020 at 07:33 PM Share Posted June 23, 2020 at 07:33 PM 7 minutos atrás, mario junior disse: Dolly Dolly ja tem oho. Acho que chega talvez num 65 mph e 990 mbar. Mas no fundo, so quero que Dolly fique com 74mph e 985 mbar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Wallace Rezende Posted June 24, 2020 at 01:31 AM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 01:31 AM Em 1992, tivemos o Andrew em agosto, primeiro sistema nomeado do ano e já fortíssimo (outro exemplo foi Allen, de 1980), isto na época em que eram nomeados apenas sistemas tropicais “inequívocos” (não faz muito tempo, mas parece que foi há séculos). Tenho certeza absoluta que jamais teremos um novo Andrew ou Allen; agora a tempestade nomeada com a letra A está fadada a ser insignificante em termos de intensidade máxima do vento, dada a atual avidez com que o NHC nomeia qualquer coisa (ímpeto inexistente até o começo do século XXI). Já os danos causados por chuva não tem ligação alguma com a intensidade do sistema, vide Allison (2001) e Agnes (1972), entre muitos outros (o próprio Harvey, de 2016, é um ótimo exemplo; a chuva mais volumosa caiu nas fases tempestade/depressão tropical, e não quando era um furacão forte no "landfall"). Tudo bem que os métodos mudem ao longo do tempo, à medida que surgem ferramentas mais sofisticadas para auxiliar na detecção dos sistemas, mas infelizmente o NHC falha miseravelmente em comunicar este fato básico, e os principais cientistas do ramo também (sempre despejam a mesma falácia de temporadas cada vez mais longas e com mais tempestades, o que qualquer pessoa que pesquise minimamente sobre o tema sabe que não é verdade, pois estão comparando bananas com maçãs, ou quem sabe com jacas)... O ACE permanece sendo o melhor indicador do grau de atividade de uma temporada (uma vez que o número de sistemas nomeados se tornou irrelevante, tamanho foi o impacto da mudança de metodologia), mas também está sujeito a distorções causadas por métodos mais modernos, que geram estimativas de vento mais agressivas para as tempestades (antes de Irma e Dorian, nenhum furacão com pressão mínima nos 910/915 mb havia sido classificado com ventos na na casa dos 180 mph, e o próprio NHC quase fez um mea-culpa no “storm report" do Dorian, sugerindo que o atual método "SFMR" favorece intensidades maiores que os métodos utilizados até muito recentemente. É bem provável que, se tivesse ocorrido há alguns anos, a intensidade máxima estimada de Dorian não teria passado dos 165/170 mph (e Irma também). Abaixo o trecho em que discutem a incerteza sobre a acurácia do método “SFMR” para estimar a intensidade de um ciclone tropical acima de um determinado patamar de intensidade (a minha tradução: “não sabemos qual foi a intensidade máxima de Dorian, no quesito ventos sustentados máximos em superfície”). Se transportássemos a temporada de 1992 para os dias atuais (exatamente como foi), Andrew provavelmente teria se chamado Danielle, Earl ou Frances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tavares Posted June 24, 2020 at 02:21 AM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 02:21 AM Sobre a lista rotativa do NHC, tem o outro lado da história, creio. Se hoje os nomes com a letra A são tempestades medíocres os nomes com as letras M, N pra frente são finalmente utilizados. A espectativa era de que acabassem os nomes do início do alfabeto enquanto outras ficariam eternas. No século XX só 4 ou 5 nomes foram aposentados após a letra M e quase todos os nomes do final vem sendo reciclados desde as primeiras listas que incluíram os nomes masculinos e os femininos acho que de bem antes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 24, 2020 at 01:56 PM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 01:56 PM No atlântico, acabou a guaraná. Dolly virou DT ontem de madrugada e deve virar um baixo remanecente hoje a tarde ou a noite. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolly Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 59.0W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 24, 2020 at 02:03 PM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 02:03 PM (edited) E no Pacífico Leste e Central, temos 3 invest's, sendo uma quarta invest esperada pra se formar. No Pacífico Leste, temos 92E, 93E, 94E e a futura 95E. No Pacífico Central, temos 93E. 93E e 94E devem virar Boris e Cristina ou Hone e Boris. ropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight near the center of a small area of low pressure located about 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could develop later today or tonight while it moves slowly toward the west or west-northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph before it moves over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Edited June 24, 2020 at 02:04 PM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted June 24, 2020 at 02:15 PM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 02:15 PM 10 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse: E no Pacífico Leste e Central, temos 3 invest's, sendo uma quarta invest esperada pra se formar. No Pacífico Leste, temos 92E, 93E, 94E e a futura 95E. No Pacífico Central, temos 93E. 93E e 94E devem virar Boris e Cristina ou Hone e Boris. ropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight near the center of a small area of low pressure located about 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could develop later today or tonight while it moves slowly toward the west or west-northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while the system moves westward at about 15 mph before it moves over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Pacifico Central e a partir do 140°W meu anjo, e caso o invest estivesse dentro da área, teria C como sufixo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 24, 2020 at 06:25 PM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 06:25 PM 4 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse: Pacifico Central e a partir do 140°W meu anjo, e caso o invest estivesse dentro da área, teria C como sufixo Eu sei Eu disse isso para dizer que 93E podia cruzar a bacia do Pacífico Leste ao Central! Como se fosse assim: "No Pacífico Central, temos 93E que está prestes a entrar na bacia" Mas falando em 93E, Vejam: BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 132.9W ABOUT 1615 MI...2605 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with this motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm late tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 24, 2020 at 08:44 PM Share Posted June 24, 2020 at 08:44 PM Quero tirar uma rapida duvida: Porque que os ciclones tropicais não são nomeados quando eles são depressão tropical e quando vira TS é nomeado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted June 25, 2020 at 12:43 AM Author Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 12:43 AM NUVEM DE POEIRA DO SAARA NO JN HOJE 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted June 25, 2020 at 01:05 AM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 01:05 AM Depressão Tropical 03-E permanece com pouca mudança devido ao cisalhamento de vento moderado (15-20 nós) e ao ar seco de norte, mas como já possui uma circulação bem definida (como mostra a imagem de satélite) e convecção profunda começa a explodir ao sul da circulação ciclônica em baixos níveis, 03-E irá se tornar "Boris" provavelmente amanhã no aviso público de 11am hora local, é o meu palpite. Não vejo virando Boris antes disso, TALVEZ no aviso público de 5 AM ele pode se tornar tempestade tropical, mas é mais provável que seja nomeado no fim da manhã de amanhã. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 25, 2020 at 01:53 AM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 01:53 AM 48 minutos atrás, PabloMartins disse: Depressão Tropical 03-E permanece com pouca mudança devido ao cisalhamento de vento moderado (15-20 nós) e ao ar seco de norte, mas como já possui uma circulação bem definida (como mostra a imagem de satélite) e convecção profunda começa a explodir ao sul da circulação ciclônica em baixos níveis, 03-E irá se tornar "Boris" provavelmente amanhã no aviso público de 11am hora local, é o meu palpite. Não vejo virando Boris antes disso, TALVEZ no aviso público de 5 AM ele pode se tornar tempestade tropical, mas é mais provável que seja nomeado no fim da manhã de amanhã. Quem sabe? Seja bem vindo, Boris Casoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 25, 2020 at 04:09 PM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 04:09 PM 03E está vencendo o ar seco, mas continua lutando bravamente Convecção cresceu, e eu não duvido que saia uma atualização para TS. Bem mais bonito que ontem! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted June 25, 2020 at 08:11 PM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 08:11 PM 23 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Quero tirar uma rapida duvida: Porque que os ciclones tropicais não são nomeados quando eles são depressão tropical e quando vira TS é nomeado? A nomeação de nomes e a intensidade mínima para conseguir um nome é apenas algo formal. Todo ano temos quase uma centena de depressões tropicais no mundo e a maioria não causa grandes problemas, então dar nomes para todos não daria certo, pois logo iria ser esgotados todos os nomes e tu teria que começar a repetir. Além disso os nomes são usados para tentar reduzir a confusão quando ocorre tempestades simultâneas na mesma bacia e assim ajudar nos alertas (indiretamente também ajudam a "eternizar" os ciclones que tem notoriedade - algo bem raro de ocorrer em depressões). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 25, 2020 at 09:01 PM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 09:01 PM 48 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: A nomeação de nomes e a intensidade mínima para conseguir um nome é apenas algo formal. Todo ano temos quase uma centena de depressões tropicais no mundo e a maioria não causa grandes problemas, então dar nomes para todos não daria certo, pois logo iria ser esgotados todos os nomes e tu teria que começar a repetir. Além disso os nomes são usados para tentar reduzir a confusão quando ocorre tempestades simultâneas na mesma bacia e assim ajudar nos alertas (indiretamente também ajudam a "eternizar" os ciclones que tem notoriedade - algo bem raro de ocorrer em depressões). Obg Felipe! Falando nisso, 03E vira Boris. Tropical Storm Boris Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BORIS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 137.1W ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1965 MI...3160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Boris was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 137.1 West. Boris is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast Friday or Friday night, with this motion continuing through Saturday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, Boris is forecast to weaken back to a depression Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 25, 2020 at 09:17 PM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 09:17 PM Boris se forma as 18:00 horas no horario de Brasilia. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 25, 2020 at 10:42 PM Share Posted June 25, 2020 at 10:42 PM Boris deve estar engolindo ar seco Uma feiura 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 26, 2020 at 12:43 PM Share Posted June 26, 2020 at 12:43 PM (edited) Boris virou depressão tropical. Esperando mais atualizações. Edited June 26, 2020 at 03:09 PM by Miguel Russe Editei por citar o primeiro-ministro britânico Boris Jonhson. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted June 26, 2020 at 02:34 PM Share Posted June 26, 2020 at 02:34 PM 1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Boris * virou depressão tropical. Esperando mais atualizações. Edita (motivo: política) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted June 26, 2020 at 05:13 PM Share Posted June 26, 2020 at 05:13 PM GFS esperando um forte furacão para os próximos 16 dias. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted June 27, 2020 at 02:24 AM Share Posted June 27, 2020 at 02:24 AM (edited) Boris está melhor organisado hoje. Se não sair atualização para TS hoje ainda ou amanhã, já era. O que Boris fez para voltar a ser uma bela tormenta novamente? Venceu o ar seco de novo? Edit: como vocês podem ver, Boris está a dois passos de entrar na bacia do pacifico central. Estimo que Boris tenha 50 mph e pressão de 1000 mb no momento. Acho q o aviso das meia noite sera o ultimo aviso do NHC. Agora, sofreremos com o conservadorismo do CPHC. Edited June 27, 2020 at 02:30 AM by mario junior 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted June 27, 2020 at 04:02 AM Share Posted June 27, 2020 at 04:02 AM 1 hora atrás, mario junior disse: Boris está melhor organisado hoje. Se não sair atualização para TS hoje ainda ou amanhã, já era. O que Boris fez para voltar a ser uma bela tormenta novamente? Venceu o ar seco de novo? Edit: como vocês podem ver, Boris está a dois passos de entrar na bacia do pacifico central. Estimo que Boris tenha 50 mph e pressão de 1000 mb no momento. Acho q o aviso das meia noite sera o ultimo aviso do NHC. Agora, sofreremos com o conservadorismo do CPHC. Será que estamos vendo o mesmo sistema???? Kkkk olha as imagens de satélite, infravermelho e visível, convecção profunda diminuiu consideravelmente, a circulação está se deteriorando, principalmente nos médios e altos níveis da atmosfera, além disso o cisalhamento de vento vai aumentar MUITO nas próximas horas. Acho que Boris tem NO MÁXIMO, mais 12h de classificação. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 28, 2020 at 12:41 AM Share Posted June 28, 2020 at 12:41 AM (edited) 22 horas atrás, mario junior disse: Boris está melhor organisado hoje. Se não sair atualização para TS hoje ainda ou amanhã, já era. Estimo que Boris tenha 50 mph e pressão de 1000 mb no momento. 20 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse: Será que estamos vendo o mesmo sistema???? Kkkk olha as imagens de satélite, infravermelho e visível Como Pablo Martins dizia uma vez para mim: As aparência enganam Edited June 28, 2020 at 12:43 AM by Miguel Russe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 28, 2020 at 07:35 AM Share Posted June 28, 2020 at 07:35 AM Boris virou um baixo remanecente. Agora, vamos esperar por Cristina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 28, 2020 at 03:57 PM Share Posted June 28, 2020 at 03:57 PM Atlântico tem duas areas de investigação: Uma tropical wave e uma futura area bem n'aonde Dolly passou. Mas ambas areas tem 20% de chances de se formarem nos proximos 5 dias, Mas tem a tropical wave que tem 10% de chances de se formar nas próximas 48 h. Próximo nome é Edouard ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, environmental conditions become less conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 2. A low pressure area is expected to form in a few days off of the southeastern coast of the United States. Some additional development of this system could then occur as it moves generally northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 28, 2020 at 04:25 PM Share Posted June 28, 2020 at 04:25 PM (edited) Invest 96L: No atlântico as aguas estão quentes, o que e bom para a tormenta. Edited June 30, 2020 at 04:48 AM by Miguel Russe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 29, 2020 at 01:40 AM Share Posted June 29, 2020 at 01:40 AM 95E se organizou de uma forma "meio-rapidinho" 🐚 Vamos ver se vira 04E, Cristina ou fica por ali mesmo em intensidade. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico have become better organized today. Although the system does not currently have a well-defined center, additional development is possible, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Monday as the system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time, additional development will become unlikely as the disturbance moves over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is likely to form a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of the week. Environmental conditions are then forecast to be conducive for slow development while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 30, 2020 at 04:14 AM Share Posted June 30, 2020 at 04:14 AM 04E se forma perto de Cabo San Lucas, na Baja California Peninsula. Não é esperado vida longa. Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 112.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low when it moves over cooler waters by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted June 30, 2020 at 01:14 PM Share Posted June 30, 2020 at 01:14 PM Os remanecentes de boris ainda estão vivos. As aguas mais quentes atrás do Havaí dvem favorecer para boris se intensifique novamente. Acho que caso volte a ser TS. Acho que ele será renomeado para Hone. 1 min: 30 mph Pressão: 1009 mbar Só lembrando que o CPHC ainda n começou a ver sistema, pois isso é apenas uma cortesia do TropicalTidbits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted June 30, 2020 at 02:24 PM Share Posted June 30, 2020 at 02:24 PM 1 hora atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Os remanecentes de boris ainda estão vivos. As aguas mais quentes atrás do Havaí dvem favorecer para boris se intensifique novamente. Acho que caso volte a ser TS. Acho que ele será renomeado para Hone. 1 min: 30 mph Pressão: 1009 mbar Só lembrando que o CPHC ainda n começou a ver sistema, pois isso é apenas uma cortesia do TropicalTidbits. Não vai se intensificar, muito menos ser chamado de "Hone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 2, 2020 at 08:30 PM Share Posted July 2, 2020 at 08:30 PM Que tédio q ta o mundo Junho teve seis tormentas, mas a mais forte foi Nisarga. O q ta acontecendo? As águas do pacífico oeste, do indico, do golfo do mexico e as aguas das bahamas estão fervendo, tenho capacidade de fritar até um ovo, e nada de ciclones?! Se continuar assim, teremos a versão do pacífico 2010 para o mundo todo em 2020! Até agora, apenas temos uma invest no pacífico leste, e nada demais. Chaticeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted July 2, 2020 at 08:59 PM Share Posted July 2, 2020 at 08:59 PM 24 minutos atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Que tédio q ta o mundo Junho teve seis tormentas, mas a mais forte foi Nisarga. O q ta acontecendo? As águas do pacífico oeste, do indico, do golfo do mexico e as aguas das bahamas estão fervendo, tenho capacidade de fritar até um ovo, e nada de ciclones?! Se continuar assim, teremos a versão do pacífico 2010 para o mundo todo em 2020! Até agora, apenas temos uma invest no pacífico leste, e nada demais. Chaticeee Climatologicamente, Junho e Novembro são os meses mais parados em relações à ciclones tropicais no globo, provavelmente porquê é o fim da janela que permite a formação no Índico Norte por causa das monções e o início da temporada do pacifico leste e atlântico norte, e esse ano ainda por cima, o pacífico oeste ta seco demais e com cisalhamento de vento mais forte, o pacífico como um todo ta assim na verdade porque ta um "neutro frio", um neutro q a temperatura ta abaixo da média mas sem la nina, já afeta bastante... fora o shear e o ar seco e o hemisfério sul lógico, sem nenhuma chance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 3, 2020 at 02:34 AM Share Posted July 3, 2020 at 02:34 AM 5 horas atrás, PabloMartins disse: Climatologicamente, Junho e Novembro são os meses mais parados em relações à ciclones tropicais no globo, provavelmente porquê é o fim da janela que permite a formação no Índico Norte por causa das monções e o início da temporada do pacifico leste e atlântico norte, e esse ano ainda por cima, o pacífico oeste ta seco demais e com cisalhamento de vento mais forte, o pacífico como um todo ta assim na verdade porque ta um "neutro frio", um neutro q a temperatura ta abaixo da média mas sem la nina, já afeta bastante... fora o shear e o ar seco e o hemisfério sul lógico, sem nenhuma chance Poha.... Agora sim temos 2010 v.2 .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 4, 2020 at 04:52 AM Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 04:52 AM Tem agora uma area pequena q esta sendo monitorada pelo NHC. 97L tem uma chance media de formar algo nas proximas 24h e 5d. A ilha Bermuda está monitorando a tormenta no caso de um eventual impacto desse sistema lá. Vi agora a pouco que o Windyty fala de chances de 97L virar furacão😂 Mas.... Como tem umas partes quentinhas lá... Quem sabe né!? Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss potential tropical development of low pressure system southwest of Bermuda. 1. An area of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of a small low pressure system located more than 300 miles southwest of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that winds have increased and that the circulation has become better defined. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical depression could form overnight or early Saturday while the system moves eastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted July 4, 2020 at 03:25 PM Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 03:25 PM Depressão tropical 5 se formou no Atlântico. Deve se fortalecer para tempestade tropical Edouard ainda hoje e afetar as Bermudas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 4, 2020 at 03:27 PM Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 03:27 PM 3 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse: Depressão tropical 5 se formou no Atlântico. Deve se fortalecer para tempestade tropical Edouard ainda hoje e afetar as Bermudas. Que raridade! Nunca vi isso de algo se formar em julho depois de 4 sistemas nomeados. Atlântico está virando 2017. BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 68.7W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight, followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches in and around Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 4, 2020 at 03:27 PM Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 03:27 PM Novidade. Estamos batendo recordes que pertencem a 2005!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted July 4, 2020 at 04:39 PM Author Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 04:39 PM THE WEATHER CHANNEL AGORA A POUCO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted July 4, 2020 at 08:01 PM Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 08:01 PM 4 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Novidade. Estamos batendo recordes que pertencem a 2005!!!! Não tem muita significância a partir do momento que todas são fracas, se formam nos subtrópicos e são de curta duração 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 4, 2020 at 11:20 PM Share Posted July 4, 2020 at 11:20 PM (edited) Tem um sisteminha no golfo. Está seguindo as inicias do Furacão Barry do ano passado. Se não for por agora, logo logo teremos FAY. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. 1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible before the trough moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Edited July 4, 2020 at 11:47 PM by Miguel Russe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 5, 2020 at 11:16 AM Share Posted July 5, 2020 at 11:16 AM 05L passou as bermudas. Não houve atualização para TS Edouard. Pressão está em 1008 mbar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts