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Miguel Russe

Tufões no Pacífico Oeste - 2020

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Vi aqui avisar q minha parte aqui no BAZ acabou. Muito obtigado por me darem a chance de participar aqui.

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GFS está indicando a possibilidade de dois tufões acordarem de vez o Pacífico Oeste.

A previsão é que ambos devem atingir a China e Filipinas. 

Os próximos nomes são Sinlaku Hagupit.

Os próximos nomes (da PAGASA) são Dindo Enteng.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_19.thumb.png.3837f64f2404b53db8553cd8efd0691e.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_53.thumb.png.b119c5744f427de5dce12edd74779ad8.png

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Segundo o TropicalTidbits, 90W deve ser designado nas proximas horas pela JTWC.

O sistema mal foi reconhecido e a JMA declarou o sistema como uma TD. 

goes17_vis_90W_202007280205_lat25.3-lon161.8.thumb.jpg.f29cff3b570842cbbefa186d8dab6311.jpg

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UM RARO EVENTO DE CICLONE SUBTROPICAL ESTÁ ACONTECENDO AGORA NO PACÍFICO OESTE.

 

ASSIM QUE O JTWC DESIGNA 90W

 

001.thumb.jpg.0504a81394d10a4ded6bd7515849533a.jpg

 

 

C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 24.5N 160.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
644 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH 
TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. RECENT ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282309Z METOP-B 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION AND TWO DISTINCT SMALL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A 
CENTROID. A 282155Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATES AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD 
WITH 25-30KT WINDS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A LARGE RADIUS 
OF MAXIMUM WINDS (90-95NM). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CYCLONIC EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE TO 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB LOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE POLEWARD 
IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED IN AN APPROACHING 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

 

 

ENQUANTO ISSO NO MAR DO SUL DA CHINA, UM OUTRO DISTÚRBIO, 91W DEVERÁ GERAR UMA TEMPESTADE TROPICAL OU TUFÃO DURANTE O FINAL DE SEMANA.

 

003.thumb.jpg.c1691af439e41693f81a88c2c1429669.jpg

 

ESTE SISTEMA SERÁ UMA GRANDE AMEAÇA PARA TODO O SUL DA CHINA, PORQUE É INDICADO NOS MODELOS PARA GERAR UMA LONGA E CONTÍNUA BANDA DE CHUVA.

 

ECMWF PROJETA ACUMULADOS DE 300mm OU MAIS EM VÁRIAS ÁREAS NOS PRÓXIMOS 7 DIAS

 

00W.thumb.jpg.a82e0d8be3c7f563626ece50efa2bc0f.jpg

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30 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse:

UM RARO EVENTO DE CICLONE SUBTROPICAL ESTÁ ACONTECENDO AGORA NO PACÍFICO OESTE

Tropical Storm Sepat (Dodong)Edit

Tropical storm (JMA)
Subtropical storm (SSHWS)
Sepat 2019-06-27 1255Z.jpg Sepat 2019 track.png
Duration June 24 – June 28
Peak intensity 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min)  994 hPa (mbar)

On June 24, the JMA began monitoring on a tropical depression that had formed well to the east of Luzon from the remnants of a separate system. On June 25, the system began curving towards the northeast; the PAGASA also began to issue warnings on the formative disturbance.[44] Rounding the periphery of a subtropical ridge of high pressure, the depression tracked towards the east-northeast through the East China Sea, intensifying some as it encountered an area of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.[45][46] On June 26, the cyclone left the PAGASA's area of responsibility.[47] Curved banding developed later that day as the center passed east of Okinawa.[48] Tracing the northwestern periphery of the ridge, the system curved towards the east-northeast, paralleling the southern coast of the main Japanese islands. Supported by favorable sea surface temperatures and outflow, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm at 09:00 UTC on June 27, gaining the name Sepat.[49] A peak intensity with 75 km/h (47 mph) 10-minute sustained winds was attained later that day while Sepat began to acquire extratropical characteristics.[50][51] The next day, the storm fully transitioned into an extratropical system while accelerating eastward 580 km (360 mi) east of Hitachinaka, Japan.[52] Sepat's extratropical remnants continued accelerating towards the northeast, moving into the western Bering Sea on July 1, before eventually dissipating over the Arctic Ocean early on July 5.

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90W se dissipou.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 26.8N 158.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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A JTWC deu TCFA para 91W, além de elevar 92W para chance média de formar alguma

coisa nas prox 24 h.

10574350_abpwsair(3).thumb.jpg.130d6f3f5b1d81666b5fc76b5260db66.jpg

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 112.8E TO 20.0N 107.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 112.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4N 112.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
191 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS 
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING EASTWARD. A 311326Z METOP-B 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT 91W HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND REVEALS A 
GENERALLY ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH A BAND OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN WHILE 
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD 
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011830Z.//
NNNN
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92W fortalece em TD 03W.

Deve evoluir em TS Sinlaku amanhã.

03W_010000sair.thumb.jpg.1a48321e710d32635dd839173fbe8eec.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312121ZJUL2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.8E
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Posted (edited)

TS Sinlaku e TD Hagupit1278116124_abpwsair(4).thumb.jpg.80c75bacd01b54343274ae1c95de9ecd.jpg

Aviso #3 para Sinlaku:

--------------------------------------------

04W_011800sair.thumb.jpg.6a2b801a77a7e3f0cc5beaf036d2c41e.jpg

 

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003//RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 106.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 106.6E

Aviso #4 para Hagupit:03W_011800sair.thumb.jpg.3972f66fc6e09d82c84ef0301980a933.jpg

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 126.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 

Edited by Miguel Russe
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Sinlaku se dissipou há pouco sobre o norte do Vietnam.

Hagupit segue ganhando força e deve atingir a escala de Severe Tropical Storm ainda hoje.

03W_021200sair.thumb.jpg.33f42c36d2b8e6116066f247436f44e6.jpg

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 124.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 124.3E
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Hagupit ganhou força, segundo a JMA.

 

 

 

STS 2004 (Hagupit)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 2 August 2020

line_menu.gif
<Analysis at 17 UTC, 2 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°05' (24.1°)
  E123°55' (123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 75 km (40 NM)
  W 55 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
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Hagupit se fortalece a categoria 1.

Deve afetar a China e Coreia do Kim-Jong-Dois.

03W_030600sair.thumb.jpg.b30dbcfe963c668b5c2fbb517b4d7f4e.jpg

SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 122.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 122.5E

wp0320.thumb.gif.03a4bf0c819be62ff97199df161f47f1.gif

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Hagupit se tornou oficialmente o segundo tufão da calmíssima temporada de tufões do pacifico oeste de 2020. O sistema havia criado um largo olho rapidamente nas ultimas horas.

line_menu.gif
85 mph - 1 min.

75 mph - 10 min.

980 hPa - JMA.

03W_031200sair.thumb.jpg.7692155ccedd82de58f4f06edc81a1fe.jpg

TY 2004 (Hagupit)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 August 2020

line_menu.gif
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°50' (26.8°)
  E121°50' (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 110 km (60 NM)
  W 55 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM)
 

NW 165 km (90 NM)

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 121.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 121.7E
Edited by Miguel Russe
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Hagupit faz landfall em Wenzhou, o mesmo lugar em que o STY Lekima (2019) tocou terra.

Deve atingir a Coreia do Norte até amanhã.

 

IMG_20200803_171507.thumb.jpg.a1d523eba73454dda884abadf719a789.jpg

Obs: peguei a foto direto do meu computadore, por isso ficou com essa linhas estranhas na foto.

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94W está em atividade no Pacífico Oeste.

O sistema já é reconhecido como TD Enteng, sem a PAGASA ter o nomeado oficialmente.

Deve virar Jangmi dentro de 3/4 dias e se tornar um forte e largo tufão.

500130150_abpwsair(6).thumb.jpg.3bd131cc1c0da79010d3fc4c76f2c49b.jpg

ABPW10 PGTW 071230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071230Z-080600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 
580 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071025Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST 
CHINA SEA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 18-
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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TCFA 94W (Jangmi)

94W_072130sair.thumb.jpg.b98518217800600934661e49f9c28ed3.jpg

WTPN21 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 126.4E TO 25.6N 126.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION 
SCATTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. A 071716Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE LLC. A 071309Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY 
ELONGATED LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND AND A SMALL SWATH 
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REMAINING 
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082130Z.//

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