Miguel Russe Posted July 13, 2020 at 06:35 PM Author Share Posted July 13, 2020 at 06:35 PM Carina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 27, 2020 at 03:14 AM Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 at 03:14 AM GFS está indicando a possibilidade de dois tufões acordarem de vez o Pacífico Oeste. A previsão é que ambos devem atingir a China e Filipinas. Os próximos nomes são Sinlaku e Hagupit. Os próximos nomes (da PAGASA) são Dindo e Enteng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 27, 2020 at 03:27 AM Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 at 03:27 AM GFS 18Z 26 de Julho valido para 13Z do dia 31 de Julho: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 28, 2020 at 02:57 AM Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 at 02:57 AM Segundo o TropicalTidbits, 90W deve ser designado nas proximas horas pela JTWC. O sistema mal foi reconhecido e a JMA declarou o sistema como uma TD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodolfo Alves Posted July 30, 2020 at 01:20 AM Share Posted July 30, 2020 at 01:20 AM UM RARO EVENTO DE CICLONE SUBTROPICAL ESTÁ ACONTECENDO AGORA NO PACÍFICO OESTE. ASSIM QUE O JTWC DESIGNA 90W C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 160.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 644 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282309Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND TWO DISTINCT SMALL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID. A 282155Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATES AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25-30KT WINDS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (90-95NM). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CYCLONIC EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB LOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED IN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. ENQUANTO ISSO NO MAR DO SUL DA CHINA, UM OUTRO DISTÚRBIO, 91W DEVERÁ GERAR UMA TEMPESTADE TROPICAL OU TUFÃO DURANTE O FINAL DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA SERÁ UMA GRANDE AMEAÇA PARA TODO O SUL DA CHINA, PORQUE É INDICADO NOS MODELOS PARA GERAR UMA LONGA E CONTÍNUA BANDA DE CHUVA. ECMWF PROJETA ACUMULADOS DE 300mm OU MAIS EM VÁRIAS ÁREAS NOS PRÓXIMOS 7 DIAS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 30, 2020 at 01:49 AM Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 at 01:49 AM 30 minutos atrás, Rodolfo Alves disse: UM RARO EVENTO DE CICLONE SUBTROPICAL ESTÁ ACONTECENDO AGORA NO PACÍFICO OESTE Tropical Storm Sepat (Dodong)Edit Tropical storm (JMA) Subtropical storm (SSHWS) Duration June 24 – June 28 Peak intensity 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min) 994 hPa (mbar) On June 24, the JMA began monitoring on a tropical depression that had formed well to the east of Luzon from the remnants of a separate system. On June 25, the system began curving towards the northeast; the PAGASA also began to issue warnings on the formative disturbance.[44] Rounding the periphery of a subtropical ridge of high pressure, the depression tracked towards the east-northeast through the East China Sea, intensifying some as it encountered an area of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.[45][46] On June 26, the cyclone left the PAGASA's area of responsibility.[47] Curved banding developed later that day as the center passed east of Okinawa.[48] Tracing the northwestern periphery of the ridge, the system curved towards the east-northeast, paralleling the southern coast of the main Japanese islands. Supported by favorable sea surface temperatures and outflow, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm at 09:00 UTC on June 27, gaining the name Sepat.[49] A peak intensity with 75 km/h (47 mph) 10-minute sustained winds was attained later that day while Sepat began to acquire extratropical characteristics.[50][51] The next day, the storm fully transitioned into an extratropical system while accelerating eastward 580 km (360 mi) east of Hitachinaka, Japan.[52] Sepat's extratropical remnants continued accelerating towards the northeast, moving into the western Bering Sea on July 1, before eventually dissipating over the Arctic Ocean early on July 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 30, 2020 at 03:57 AM Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 at 03:57 AM 90W se dissipou. (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 158.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 30, 2020 at 04:32 PM Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 at 04:32 PM Os remanecentes de Douglas estão no Pacífico Oeste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted July 31, 2020 at 09:28 PM Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 at 09:28 PM A JTWC deu TCFA para 91W, além de elevar 92W para chance média de formar alguma coisa nas prox 24 h. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 112.8E TO 20.0N 107.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.0E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING EASTWARD. A 311326Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT 91W HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND REVEALS A GENERALLY ASYMMETRIC LLC WITH A BAND OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011830Z.// NNNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 1, 2020 at 04:04 AM Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 at 04:04 AM 92W fortalece em TD 03W. Deve evoluir em TS Sinlaku amanhã. WTPN31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312121ZJUL2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.8E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 1, 2020 at 11:02 PM Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 at 11:02 PM (edited) TS Sinlaku e TD Hagupit Aviso #3 para Sinlaku: -------------------------------------------- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003//RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 106.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 106.6E Aviso #4 para Hagupit: MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 126.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT Edited August 2, 2020 at 04:23 PM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 2, 2020 at 04:25 PM Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 at 04:25 PM Sinlaku se dissipou há pouco sobre o norte do Vietnam. Hagupit segue ganhando força e deve atingir a escala de Severe Tropical Storm ainda hoje. WTPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 124.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 124.3E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 2, 2020 at 06:38 PM Author Share Posted August 2, 2020 at 06:38 PM Hagupit ganhou força, segundo a JMA. STS 2004 (Hagupit) Issued at 17:50 UTC, 2 August 2020 <Analysis at 17 UTC, 2 August> Scale - Intensity - Center position N24°05' (24.1°) E123°55' (123.9°) Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt) Central pressure 990 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt) ≥ 50 kt wind area E 75 km (40 NM) W 55 km (30 NM) ≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 3, 2020 at 01:16 PM Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 at 01:16 PM Hagupit se fortalece a categoria 1. Deve afetar a China e Coreia do Kim-Jong-Dois. SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 010 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 122.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 122.5E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 3, 2020 at 01:20 PM Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 at 01:20 PM E o Pacífico Oeste finalmente está acordando. Temos o EX- Sinlaku, Hagupit e o futuro Jangmi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 3, 2020 at 03:20 PM Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 at 03:20 PM (edited) Hagupit se tornou oficialmente o segundo tufão da calmíssima temporada de tufões do pacifico oeste de 2020. O sistema havia criado um largo olho rapidamente nas ultimas horas. 85 mph - 1 min. 75 mph - 10 min. 980 hPa - JMA. TY 2004 (Hagupit)Issued at 12:45 UTC, 3 August 2020 <Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 August> Scale - Intensity - Center position N26°50' (26.8°) E121°50' (121.8°) Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt) Central pressure 980 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt) ≥ 50 kt wind area E 110 km (60 NM) W 55 km (30 NM) ≥ 30 kt wind area SE 330 km (180 NM) NW 165 km (90 NM) WTPN31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 121.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 121.7E Edited August 3, 2020 at 03:23 PM by Miguel Russe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 3, 2020 at 08:20 PM Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 at 08:20 PM Hagupit faz landfall em Wenzhou, o mesmo lugar em que o STY Lekima (2019) tocou terra. Deve atingir a Coreia do Norte até amanhã. Obs: peguei a foto direto do meu computadore, por isso ficou com essa linhas estranhas na foto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:34 AM Share Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:34 AM Landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:36 AM Share Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:36 AM Landfall com intensidade entre categoria 1/2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:37 AM Share Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:37 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:40 AM Share Posted August 4, 2020 at 03:40 AM Tufão segue causando fortes chuvas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 7, 2020 at 03:32 PM Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 at 03:32 PM 94W está em atividade no Pacífico Oeste. O sistema já é reconhecido como TD Enteng, sem a PAGASA ter o nomeado oficialmente. Deve virar Jangmi dentro de 3/4 dias e se tornar um forte e largo tufão. ABPW10 PGTW 071230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071230Z-080600ZAUG2020// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071025Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 18- 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 7, 2020 at 10:48 PM Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 at 10:48 PM TCFA 94W (Jangmi) WTPN21 PGTW 072130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 126.4E TO 25.6N 126.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. A 071716Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. A 071309Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND AND A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REMAINING HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 082130Z.// 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 8, 2020 at 05:01 PM Author Share Posted August 8, 2020 at 05:01 PM TD 05W se forma. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 126.3E 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 8, 2020 at 09:25 PM Author Share Posted August 8, 2020 at 09:25 PM De acordo com a JMA, 05W virou oficialmente TS Jangmi (Enteng). TS 2005 (Jangmi) Issued at 19:20 UTC, 8 August 2020 <Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 August> Scale - Intensity - Center position N21°00' (21.0°) E126°05' (126.1°) Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (16 kt) Central pressure 1000 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt) ≥ 30 kt wind area SE 460 km (250 NM) NW 220 km (120 NM) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 9, 2020 at 02:36 PM Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 at 02:36 PM Movimentoooo....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 9, 2020 at 02:50 PM Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 at 02:50 PM Agora sim que o Pacifico Oeste virou Pacifico Oeste 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PabloMartins Posted August 9, 2020 at 07:53 PM Share Posted August 9, 2020 at 07:53 PM 5 horas atrás, Miguel Russe disse: Agora sim que o Pacifico Oeste virou Pacifico Oeste 3 sistemas mixuruca? vish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 9, 2020 at 08:57 PM Author Share Posted August 9, 2020 at 08:57 PM JMA segue ignorando 06W...... JTWC: WTPN32 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 147.0E --- JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 12, 2020 at 04:02 AM Share Posted August 12, 2020 at 04:02 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 12, 2020 at 04:02 AM Share Posted August 12, 2020 at 04:02 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 17, 2020 at 02:04 AM Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 at 02:04 AM As condições do mar sul chinês estão boas para suportar essa previsão das 18Z do HWRF para a Invest 99W? 114 kt (130 mph) e 944 mbar 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 17, 2020 at 11:45 PM Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 at 11:45 PM TD 08W se forma. Pode evoluir em TS Higos hoje ou amanhã. (Obs: JTWC cometeu um breve erro ao dizer que 08W é TS na imagem, mas o ASCAT encontrou em um pedaço do sistema ventos compativeis com TS). WTPN31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170321ZAUG2020// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 118.6E --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 18, 2020 at 01:42 AM Author Share Posted August 18, 2020 at 01:42 AM (edited) TS Higos se forma. TS 2007 (Higos)Issued at 01:25 UTC, 18 August 2020 <Analysis at 00 UTC, 18 August> Scale - Intensity - Center position N20°05' (20.1°) E116°40' (116.7°) Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt) Central pressure 1000 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt) ≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM) SW 165 km (90 NM) Edited August 18, 2020 at 01:43 AM by Miguel Russe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 21, 2020 at 05:34 AM Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 at 05:34 AM JTWC dá o TCFA para 90W. WTPN21 PGTW 202200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 122.6E TO 22.7N 122.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202023Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 90W TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS (15-20KT), AND WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STORNG AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212200Z. // NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 21, 2020 at 05:35 AM Author Share Posted August 21, 2020 at 05:35 AM Grande maioria dos modelos concordam que o sistema será um forte tufão. GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mario junior Posted August 22, 2020 at 06:55 PM Share Posted August 22, 2020 at 06:55 PM Bavi se formou ontem e está num processo de Rapida intensificação. Atualmente é STS pela JMA. 60 mph (JTWC) 65 mph e 990 mbar (JMA) JTWC prevê um forte categoria 3 para segunda. Bavi: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 24, 2020 at 02:28 PM Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 at 02:28 PM Tropical Tidbits informa que Bavi foi de 80 mph a 110 mph!!! QUASE CAT 3!!! Vongfong deve ser ultrapassado como mais forte do pacífico oeste essse ano ate agora em questão de horas. 09WAs of 12:00 UTC Aug 24, 2020: Location: 28.5°N 126.4°EMaximum Winds: 95 ktMinimum Central Pressure: 950 mb Infrared Satellite Image (click for loop): Advertisement: Official Forecast (click to enlarge): Surface Plot (click to enlarge): Note that the most recent hour may not be fully populated with stations yet. Model Forecasts (list of model acronyms😞 GFS Ensembles 00z | 06z | 12z | 18zIntensity Guidance 00z | 06z | 12z | 18z Global + Hurricane Models 00z | 06z | 12z | 18zGEFS-Parallel Ensembles 00z | 06z | 12z | 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 26, 2020 at 01:58 AM Share Posted August 26, 2020 at 01:58 AM Bavi aproximando das Coreias como categoria 3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 26, 2020 at 01:58 AM Share Posted August 26, 2020 at 01:58 AM Já aparecendo no radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 26, 2020 at 02:00 AM Share Posted August 26, 2020 at 02:00 AM Bavi provocou acumulados de chuva significativos em ilhas do sul do Japão. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 26, 2020 at 02:03 AM Share Posted August 26, 2020 at 02:03 AM Bavi pode ser o quinto ciclone com força de furacão a chegar na Coreia do Norte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 26, 2020 at 02:06 AM Share Posted August 26, 2020 at 02:06 AM Tufão Bavi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted August 27, 2020 at 02:19 AM Share Posted August 27, 2020 at 02:19 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Russe Posted August 29, 2020 at 02:35 PM Author Share Posted August 29, 2020 at 02:35 PM (edited) Maysak se torna o quarto tufão de 2020. Atualmente ameaça o Japão e suas ilha e o sul da coreia do sul. HWRF-P confiante em Maysak: 150 mph e 912 mbar Obs: Maysak foi nomeado ontem... Edited August 29, 2020 at 02:36 PM by Miguel Russe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:20 AM Share Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:20 AM Super Tufão Maysak chegou na categoria 4. O ciclone está afetando algumas ilhas japonesas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:22 AM Share Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:22 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:24 AM Share Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:24 AM Kumejima registrou rajadas de quase 200 km/h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:26 AM Share Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:26 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felipe F Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:30 AM Share Posted September 1, 2020 at 12:30 AM Maysak deve afetar a Coreia do Sul ainda como um forte tufão. O sul do Japão também pode ter chuvas e ventos fortes devido ao ciclone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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