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Brasil Abaixo de Zero

Tempo Severo EUA/2019


Felipe F
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Atualização do mês de Abril:

Entre 13 e 15 de Abril tivemos 70 tornados confirmados: 23 EF0, 30 EF1, 15 EF2 e 2 EF3

Entre 17 e 19 de Abril tivemos 96 tornados confirmados: 30 EF0, 51 EF1, 11 EF2 e 1 EF3 (3 não foram classificados)

Entre 24/25 tivemos mais 17 tornados confirmados: 2 EF0, 9 EF1, 4 EF2 e 1 EF3.(1 não foi classificado)

No dia 30 tivemos 44 tornados reportados, até o momento 12 foram confirmados, sendo o mais forte um EF3.

Abril está com 215 tornados confirmados até o momento, acima da média que é de 155. 

 

Ontem tivemos 6 tornados reportados entre TX/OK.

A previsão de tempo severo mais significativo entre 6 e 11 de Maio.

 

 

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SPC menciona até o dia 9.

 

...DISCUSSION...
   On Thursday/D4, an upper ridge will be in place across the central
   U.S. with a large upper trough across the West. Meanwhile, northwest
   flow will exist across the Great Lakes with a low amplitude wave
   moving quickly from northern MN toward PA by Friday/D5 morning. A
   cold front will accompany this wave, with lift focused from MN into
   IA, northern IL/IN and OH. Substantial westerly winds at 850 mb will
   transport theta-e across IA and IL toward the front, with a corridor
   of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms from IA across southern
   WI and northern IL during the late afternoon and evening. Damaging
   winds would be most likely. A this time predictability is too low to
   denote an MCS corridor, but a Slight Risk is possible in later
   updates.

   Also on Thursday/D4, moisture and instability will spread west
   across NE and southern SD, as the leading height falls with the
   western trough approach the High Plains. Isolated severe hail and
   wind is possible over parts of eastern WY, western NE, and southwest
   SD during the late afternoon and evening.

   On Friday/D5, strong southwest flow aloft will spread into the
   Plains, with the strongest winds from NM into west TX. Low pressure
   is forecast across northeast CO into NE during the day, with a
   dryline extending southward into west TX. Widespread mid 60s F
   dewpoints will be in place ahead of the dryline, and northward to
   the warm front from eastern SD into IA. Moderate to strong
   instability will develop over the warm sector, with wind profiles
   supporting supercells producing very large hail and a few tornadoes.
   Clusters of storms, or an MCS, is also possible overnight mainly
   over northwest TX into western OK.

   For Saturday/D6, significant differences exist regarding the
   shortwave trough, with the new ECMWF showing a compact,
   negative-tilt shortwave from northwest TX across OK and into KS.
   Meanwhile, the GFS based members show a less amplified solution,
   with the main threat area farther east. Either solution will support
   severe weather, whether more of a squall line producing damaging
   winds, or a mixed mode threat including supercells and tornadoes. As
   such, have introduced 15% severe probs for Saturday, mainly across
   OK and TX.

   For Sunday/D7, a moist, unstable air mass is most likely to exist
   over eastern TX and into AR and possibly MO. Much of this area will
   be behind the departing upper trough, thus predictability is quite
   low. 

   On Monday/D8, models show a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft again
   across the West, with some manner of trough amplification possible
   into the Plains. Predictability is low, however, substantial
   low-level moisture will be available for any wave that emerges into
   the Plains, including into Tuesday/D9, with bouts of severe weather
   possible from the Plains to the Midwest.

   ..Jewell.. 05/13/2019
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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY...


AT 704 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR MOOREFIELD, OR 12 MILES EAST OF CURTIS, MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

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