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Felipe F

Tempo Severo EUA/2019

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DIA 2 - MODERADO RISCO.

Potencial tornadico em 15%.

 

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Com o evento entrando na grade do HRRR, o modelo mostra um cenário mais agressivo que o NAM, com células mais isoladas avançando até além da  região metropolitana da Cidade de Oklahoma ao anoitecer quando o NAM mostrava já uma LI

 

HRRR 12Z

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NAM 3km 12Z

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O risco moderado foi mantido.

O SPC na minha visão está atuando corretamente, pois como já vimos ocorrer várias vezes, a convecção matinal poderia reduzir o potencial do evento. Um alto risco poderia ser emitido no final da manhã, quando essa incerteza acabar.

Caso se confirme a previsão atual, poderíamos estar diante de um grande/histórico surto amanhã, semelhante a 24/05/2011.

 

 

 

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00Z HRRR 20 horas antes do evento desenha um cenário terrível de tempo severo e ainda amplia a área de atuação das células que se formarão num ambiente bastante favorável pra desenvolver rotação intensa. Um enxame de tornados.

OsUt22v.png

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Algumas cidades de Oklahoma cancelaram as aulas amanhã.

Rodadas de agora a noite como foi mostrado seguem assustadoras.

 

 

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Manchetes de um dia normal de Maio em Oklahoma

uzRk38u.jpg

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ALTO RISCO EMITIDO!

 

Citar

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA..

 

 

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...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
   AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected
   today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition,
   many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The
   severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas
   Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas into western Missouri and
   western Arkansas. Additional severe storms with wind damage and hail
   will be possible this afternoon from southeast New York into
   southern and central New England.

   ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into
   Tonight...

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly
   eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90
   knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the
   system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the
   Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and
   eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very
   favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects
   northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and
   evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.
   The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight
   period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and
   property.

   RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability
   corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma
   show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50
   to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with
   0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. This environment
   should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from
   about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early
   evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better
   focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong
   tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet.

   The current thinking concerning the details is that the first round
   of severe storms will begin early as thunderstorms initiate in west
   Texas and move northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid
   to late morning. Initially, large hail will be the main threat but
   as these storms mature, tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
   and more dominant cells. Additional supercells with tornado
   potential are expected to initiate near the warm front in western
   and central Oklahoma. A tornado threat will transition to large hail
   and wind damage as the storms move into Kansas to the north side of
   the boundary. This first round of severe storms is forecast to move
   northeastward, away from the warm sector, allowing for the
   development of extreme instability during the mid to late afternoon
   from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

   The second round of severe storms is expected to start during the
   late afternoon as repeat initiation takes place in west Texas. Rapid
   supercell formation is forecast along the I-27 corridor from the
   vicinity of Lubbock northward to just south of Amarillo. A cluster
   of tornadic supercells is then forecast to move northeastward into
   northwest Texas and the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the
   early evening. Additional tornadic supercells are forecast to
   rapidly develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeastward into
   west-central Oklahoma. At that time, the strengthening low-level jet
   will couple with a highly progressive and seasonably strong
   mid-level jet, making conditions favorable for long-track strong
   tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes.

   The greatest threat for long-track tornadoes will exist along the
   corridor from near Lubbock northeastward to Childress, Altus,
   Lawton, Clinton to just west of the Oklahoma City and Enid
   vicinities. After considerable deliberation, a High risk will be
   issued for parts of west Texas, the southeastern Texas Panhandle
   into western Oklahoma.

   In addition to the tornado threat, conditions will be very favorable
   for large hail and wind damage. Strong instability, enhanced
   deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will make
   hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the
   more intense supercells, mainly in west Texas and the western half
   of Oklahoma. A wind-damage threat will also exist across much of the
   southern Plains due to the expected intense nature of the storms.
   The wind-damage threat, including some gusts above 70 kt, should
   become widespread during the late evening into the overnight period
   as squall line organizes and moves quickly eastward across the
   southern Plains.

   ...Southeast New York/New England...
   An upper-level trough will move across southern Quebec and the
   Northeast today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward
   across New York and into western New England. Ahead of the front,
   surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F should result in destabilization
   of the airmass by afternoon from southeast New York into much of
   southern and central New England. Scattered thunderstorm development
   is expected around midday along the cold front with this convection
   moving eastward across the moist sector during the afternoon.
   Forecast soundings along the instability axis from Springfield,
   Massachusetts northeastward into Vermont at 21Z show MLCAPE values
   peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range and have steep low-level
   lapse rates. This combined with 0-6 km shear values around 35 kt
   should be sufficient for multicells with wind damage potential. A
   few rotating storms with a large-hail threat may also develop.

   ..Broyles/Wendt.. 05/20/2019
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5 horas atrás, Felipe F disse:

DIA 1

D6_RjObW0AEvAWe.jpg

 

 

Severíssimo, adoramos.

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Alto risco deslocado mais para sul e leste.

convecção matinal está ocorrendo perto de Woodward, OK.

 

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Tempo bom na área de alto risco.

 

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Redações muito fortes do SPC

 

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POTENCIAL TORNADICO 45%

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Posted (edited)
3 minutos atrás, Felipe F disse:

POTENCIAL TORNADICO 45%

D7BixAeWsAASKfa.jpg

 

 

Esses 45% representam a probabilidade de um tornado em um raio de 40 km de um ponto.

Olha as cidades dentro desse perímetro:

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Edited by Tavares
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Conferência completa

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Mesoscale Discussion 0699
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...southwest into central OK...western north-central
   TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 201617Z - 201845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will
   likely be needed for portions of central and western OK. 
   Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest a watch
   being issued during the 1pm-2pm period.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus
   field over western north-central TX into southwest and south-central
   OK.  Rapid moisture advection is occurring late this morning with
   surface dewpoints rising into the lower 70s over southern OK. 
   Upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by early to mid afternoon
   across western and central OK with intensifying wind profiles.  

   Short-term model guidance appears to have a reasonable depiction of
   free warm sector initiation occurring over southwest and
   south-central OK during the 2-3pm period.  The observational trend
   in visible satellite imagery showing more pronounced bands of low
   cloud cover ---perhaps indicative of horizontal convective rolls
   and/or low-level confluence zones is supportive evidence for this
   model-based depiction.  The expectation is for storms to develop on
   the northern half of these cloud features with explosive supercell
   development likely thereafter.  Forecast soundings show a very rare
   combination of intense low-level SRH, very moist boundary, and
   extreme buoyancy.  As such, the risk for strong to violent tornadoes
   appears to be increasing later this afternoon into the early
   evening.

   ..Smith.. 05/20/2019
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O evento deve mobilizar o país todo.

Página Inicial da CNN:

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Posted (edited)

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 197

 

95/90

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Edited by Felipe F

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