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Felipe F

Tempo Severo EUA - 2019

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Janeiro 2019 terminou com 19 tornados, abaixo da média de 35.

Fevereiro que é o mês menos ativo, com média de apenas 29, tem sido muito ativo nos últimos anos e em 2019 parece que não vai ser diferente.

Hoje e amanhã temos a possibilidade de alguns tornados nos estados de OK, TX, MO, AR, TN, IL e KY. 

Modelos começam indicar algo significativo para próxima terça, seguimos acompanhando. 

 

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Aproximadamente 80 reports de granizo e ventos fortes desde ontem.

Um breve tornado foi reportado próximo de Decker, IN.

 

Citar

Spotr 3 miles N of DECKER, IN @ 16:50 UTC TOR>-Rain-wrapped tornado crossing U.S. 41 1 mile south of Airport road, semi over turned, debr

Spotr 4 miles NW of DECKER, IN @ 17:46 UTC TOR>-Irrigation unit over turned, several trees uprooted.

Spotr 4 miles NW of DECKER, IN @ 17:51 UTC TOR>-Several high tension power line towers collapaed, irrigation unit over turned.

 

 

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Tivemos dois tornados EF0 confirmados no Tennessee, dois EF1 confirmados no Arkansas e pelo menos mais dois ontem nos estados de Indiana e Ohio, que ainda aguardam classificação.

Modelos ainda seguem mostrando risco de tempo severo na próxima terça.

 

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Tá achegando aquela época do ano.

Prognóstico para sábado, dia 23 de fevereiro

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 There appears increasing consensus, within and among the various
   model output, that this feature will provide support for strong
   surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by this
   weekend.  Guidance generally indicates that the cyclone center will
   rapidly migrate from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region into the
   Great Lakes on Saturday.  This probably will include intensifying
   lower/mid tropospheric flow (to 50-70 kt in the 850-500 mb layer)
   across an evolving warm sector boundary layer that will become at
   least weakly unstable, across lower portions of the southern Plains
   through the mid to lower Mississippi Valley region.  This
   environment may become conducive to the evolution of an organized
   mesoscale convective system, and perhaps discrete supercell
   development ahead of it, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind
   gusts and tornadoes.  

   It remains unclear whether destabilization eastward and
   southeastward, toward the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, on Sunday will
   remain sufficient to support an appreciable continuing severe
   weather threat.
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Tornado Warning para Pine Mountain, GA.

Fica ao sul de Atlanta, GA.

 

1082_4fd4411993547bfe172636aaa751f5b4.png

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Sábado está ficando interessante.

SPC já menciona possibilidade de fortes tornados.

 

Dz9eB-fXgAEQ7l6.jpg

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