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Brasil Abaixo de Zero

Tempo Severo EUA - 2018


Rodolfo Alves
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  • 3 weeks later...
20 horas atrás, Felipe F disse:

Dados de hoje indicam um grande surto de tempo severo entre 06 e 07 de Novembro.

Se confirmar, seria o evento do ano, que anda bem fraco.

 

Opa! Probabilidade de 30% com 4 dias de antecedência se viu pouquíssimo em 2018, mesmo no auge da temporada.
Nas últimas saídas dos modelos a área de maior risco ficaria entre TX, OK, AR e LA

 

DIAS 05 e 06

V0iXDsR.gif

 

DIAS 06 e 07

sOENIMW.gif

Edited by Tavares
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SUMMARY...A favorable environment and supercellular storm type will
   support a continued tornado risk with experimental guidance
   suggesting damage intensities 80-135 mph (upper EF0-EF2).

   DISCUSSION...KPOE and KSHV radar imagery show a cluster of
   supercells in a southwest-northeast broken band and a few discrete
   supercells located over north-central LA.  The storms are located in
   a very moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees
   F and lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios 15-16 g/kg.  The KPOE VAD
   shows strong speed shear in the lowest 1km (30 kt) with a veering
   wind profile through the mid levels.  Given the favorable mesoscale
   environment and supercellular storm type, the tornado risk will
   continue downstream to the east-northeast across north-central LA
   during the next hour.  Experimental probability guidance is
   suggestive of damage intensities primarily within a 80-135 mph range
   (upper EF0-EF2) with any ongoing or subsequently developing tornado

 

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