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Rodolfo Alves

Tempo Severo EUA - 2017

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URGENTE

 

Dezenas de feridos devido a um forte tornado que afetou Nova Orleans horas atrás.

 

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Até o momento se confirma 25 feridos.

Outros tornado foram reportados no sul da Louisiana e do Mississippi.

Um outro tornado próximo de Killian, deixou 5 feridos.

 

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C4GCqGfVMAAZu_f.jpg

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O tornado do ano até agora. Passou muito perto do centro de Nova Orleans

Saca esse vídeo:

https://twitter.com/dcollet20/status/829059205067845638

Me lembra os piões que filmaram o tornado de Cândido Rondon.

 

Imagens de drone do rastro do tornado:

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/orleans/drone-video-captures-no-east-damage/402592478

Deve ser classificado como um EF-2 ou um EF-3

 

Tornado gêmeos em Nova Orleans

 

YmwZjo2m.jpg

Kevin Clamato

Foi confirmado um tornado satélite?

Pela foto, vejo algo no reflexo do vidro fazendo um recorte sobre nuvens mais baixas. Não encontrei ainda fotos de tornados gêmeos de hoje.

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Foi confirmado um tornado satélite?

Pela foto, vejo algo no reflexo do vidro fazendo um recorte sobre nuvens mais baixas. Não encontrei ainda fotos de tornados gêmeos de hoje.

 

Ainda não houve uma confirmação oficial da NWS.

Outros sites também compartilharam esta foto.

 

O tornado que afetou Nova Orleans recebeu uma classificação de pelo menos EF3.

Este foi o tornado mais forte que já afetou Nova Orleans.

Outras duas pesquisas estão sendo realizadas para avaliar danos causados por tornados.

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13 tornados confirmados no dia 07 de Fevereiro, sendo que as pesquisas ainda estão em andamento e esse números podem aumentar e as classificações serem alteradas.

Tornados foram registrados nos estados da Louisiana (5), Flórida (2), Mississippi (2), Alabama (2), Georgia (1) e Tennessee (1), sendo 2 EF3, 2 EF2, 5 EF1 e 4 EF0.

 

Nova Orleans ( vídeo que o Lucas e eu postamos)

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Tempo severo deve voltar a ser notícia amanhã.

Sudeste do Texas (região metropolitana de Houston) deve ser a região com maior possibilidade de tornados. Outros estados da costa do golfo também devem ser afetados.

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Potencial tornadico de 10% na região metropolitana de Houston.

Um alerta de tornados está em vigor para sudeste do Texas, onde alguns avisos já foram emitidos.

Durante noite/madrugada, as tempestades devem se concentrar no sul dos estados do Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana e no panhandle da Flórida.

 

1o2Nqdx.jpg

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Primeiro tornado do dia confirmado.

Tornado envolto em chuva próximo de Wharton, TX.

 

C4oVli3UMAABqDj.jpg

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Um breve tornado foi reportado próximo de Rosenburg, TX.

Aviso de tornado em vigor para Houston, TX.

 

C4oh2ltWMAApsJH.jpg:large

 

C4ohtwGVYAAgeDA.jpg

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Danos causados por um possível tornado foram reportados próximo de Fairchild, TX.

Danos causados por tornados foram registrados em Bridlewood, TX.

Aviso ainda está em vigor para Houston, pois ainda existem algumas áreas apresentando rotação.

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Tivemos 6 tornados confirmados no dia 14/02.

Pelo menos 6 pessoas ficaram feridas devido aos tornados.

Classificações: 4 EF0, 1 EF1 e 1 EF2

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Um risco leve esteve em vigor ontem no Texas e Oklahoma.

Houve dezenas de reports de ventos fortes e alguns de granizo nos dois estados, mas o destaque foi a ocorrência de pelo menos 4 tornados fracos (EF0/EF1) na área metropolitana de San Antonio.

Pelo menos 6 pessoas ficaram feridas.

 

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De quinta em diante, existe a possibilidade de um surto de tempo severo, que afetaria desde as Grandes Planícies, Sul dos EUA, vale do Rio Ohio e até região sul dos Grandes Lagos.

Ventos fortes no momento são a principal ameaça.

Modelos apontam outro possível evento de tempo severo para o final de Fevereiro e começo de Março.

 

DIA 5

dfbRLdg.jpg

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Um risco leve está em vigor hoje no norte do Kansas, sendo granizo e ventos fortes as ameaças.

 

Amanhã o tempo severo deve afetar Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois e Michigan, sendo que todas as ameaças são possíveis, principalmente ventos fortes.

Sul de Ohio, Indiana, norte do Kentucky e leste de Illinois são os locais com maior possibilidade de tornados na minha visão.

 

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[mod=Felipe F]SPC AC 230658

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1258 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

 

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

 

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN

LOWER MICHIGAN INTO MUCH OF INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND THE

WESTERN HALF OF OHIO...

 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF TENNESSEE...

 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE

SLIGHT RISK...

 

...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect portions of the southern

Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee on Friday and Friday night.

Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail are possible.

 

...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough/low is forecast to move from the middle MO Valley

eastward to the central Great Lakes and OH Valley. Concurrently, a

belt of strong and cyclonically curved 500-mb flow is forecast to

intensify to 100+ kt over the OH Valley late Friday night. A

surface low near the MO/IA border will develop northeastward to

southern Lake Michigan by early evening before partially occluding

over northern Michigan by early Saturday. A northward-advancing

warm front will move from north-central IL and Michiana through

southern Lower Michigan by mid-late afternoon. A cold front near

the MS River around midday Friday will sweep eastward across the OH

and TN Valleys by daybreak Saturday.

 

...southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...

The northeastward advection of an elevated mixed layer and

associated steep to very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8.5 degrees

per km) from the south-central states will overspread this region

during the morning. A capping inversion will likely limit

showers/thunderstorms to be near the advancing warm frontal zone

during the morning with mid-upper 50s dewpoints amidst strong

southerly low-level flow. By early to mid-afternoon, NAM model

guidance indicates temperatures will warm well into the 60s across

much of the warm sector compared to the much cooler GFS. The

increasing influence of DCVA/500-mb height falls coupled with

heating will likely lead to thunderstorms developing into one or

more broken bands. Strong effective shear (45-60 kt) coupled with

MLCAPE increasing into the 250-1250 J/kg range will support strong

to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show moist boundary

layers with effective SRH in the 150-200 m2/s2 range over much of

the warm sector but locally higher (200-300 m2/s2) over the northern

portion of the Enhanced Risk in the Michiana/southern Lower Michigan

vicinity. A mixed mode of both linear and cellular (some of which

maturing into supercells) is expected during the early half of the

convective life cycle. The threats from the more intense storms

include damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility for

tornadoes. Upscale growth will likely occur during the

evening/overnight as storms move eastward across the OH Valley and

the severe risk transitions to primarily damaging winds as

southwesterly 700-mb flow strengthens to 60-kt.

 

...Mid South and southern Appalachians...

Storm initiation will likely be delayed to the late afternoon/early

evening as this area's thunderstorm chances await the arrival of

stronger mid-level forcing with convective inhibition gradually

eroding. Isolated to widely scattered storms will likely develop

southward along a prefrontal convergence band or along the

southeastward-moving cold front before growing upscale during the

overnight. Cool 500-mb temperatures atop relatively moist low

levels implies a surface-based thunderstorm risk after dark.

Damaging winds will likely be the primary hazard. However,

depending on how quickly upscale growth occurs, a tornado threat may

develop as winds strengthen in the 925-700 mb layer and hodographs

enlarge. As storms move eastward into the southern Appalachians,

diminishing instability will likely coincide with storms' weakening

and a lessening severe risk.

 

..Smith.. 02/23/2017[/mod]

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Um risco leve esteve em vigor ontem no Texas e Oklahoma.

Houve dezenas de reports de ventos fortes e alguns de granizo nos dois estados, mas o destaque foi a ocorrência de pelo menos 4 tornados fracos (EF0/EF1) na área metropolitana de San Antonio.

Pelo menos 6 pessoas ficaram feridas.

Tivemos a confirmação de 9 tornados, sendo 3 EF2, 2 EF1 e 4 EF0.

Destaque para os dois EF2 simultâneos que afetaram Thrall, TX e os dois tornados que ocorreram na região metropolitana de San Antonio,sendo um EF1 e outro EF2.

O mês de Fevereiro, deve terminar acima da média, assim como no ano passado.

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Na sexta e no sábado houve centenas de reports de ventos fortes e granizo na região dos Grandes Lagos, Vale do Rio Ohio e na Costa Leste dos EUA.

Não houve relatos de tornados.

 

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Na terça o tempo severo irá retornar, afetando áreas do centro e sul dos EUA e se expandindo até a costa leste na quarta-feira.

Os estados mais afetados podem ser Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, sul do Missouri e de Illinois, leste de Oklahoma, norte da Louisiana e Geórgia.

Tornados e ventos estão previstos para serem as maiores ameaças.

 

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Risco aumentado em vigor para parte do Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana e Missouri, não sendo descartado um possível upgrade para risco moderado.

Estes quatro estados podem registrar tornados fortes no final da tarde e noite.

 

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[nfo]Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0637 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

 

Valid 281300Z - 011200Z

 

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS

AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS

PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA...

 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE

ENHANCED RISK AREA...FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY

SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

 

...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of the

lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight. Large

hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are possible.

 

...Synopsis...

A large-scale mid-upper trough over the Great Basin and lower CO

River valley will progress eastward to the MS Valley by the end of

the period. An associated surface cyclone will develop

northeastward from the MO/IA border to Lower MI overnight, as a cold

front moves eastward from the Plains to the MS Valley. Ahead of the

front, a relatively broad/unstable warm sector is expected from

parts of the middle MS and lower OH Valleys southward, where

vertical shear will increase with time as the mid-upper trough

approaches from the west. Several rounds of strong/severe storms

may occur across a broad area, with all severe storm hazards

possible this afternoon through tonight, though uncertainty persists

with warm sector development through this evening.

 

...Northern AR/southern MO to the lower OH Valley this evening...

To the southwest of ongoing elevated storms over northern MS and

western TN, rich low-level moisture (boundary layer dewpoints of

65-70 F) is spreading northward from east TX/LA toward eastern

OK/AR. Though a subtropical cirrus plume may tend to limit surface

heating in some areas, afternoon temperatures well into the 70s

along the moist axis will drive MLCAPE values upward to 1500-2500

J/kg. Simultaneously, vertical shear will become increasingly

favorable for supercells in the warm sector, with effective bulk

shear at or above 70 kt, and effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 expected

by this evening.

 

The primary uncertainty for diurnal convection in the open warm

sector will be a focus for initiation. Only a weak cap is expected

this afternoon over the warm sector given soundings modified for

upper 70s and upper 60s dewpoints, and the primary source of weak

ascent during the afternoon will be low-level warm advection.

However, uncertainty remains substantial, as represented by

inconsistency among multiple convection-allowing model forecasts.

If storms can form in this regime across central/northern AR and

southern MO during the afternoon/evening, they will likely become

primarily discrete supercells and move rapidly northeastward at

50-60 kt across southeast MO toward southern IL. The combination of

vertical shear, buoyancy, and low-level moisture will conditionally

support a risk for strong tornadoes, while isolated very large hail

will also be possible.

 

...East of the surface cyclone into IL this afternoon/evening...

A few near-surface-based storms could form this afternoon and

persist into this evening immediately east of the surface cyclone,

along the warm front into central/northern IL as boundary layer

dewpoints increase to near 60 F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.

Cloud breaks will dictate the degree of surface heating into

northeast MO, with potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500

J/kg) along the north edge of the warm sector into central/northern

IL. If storms form within the north edge of the warm sector, strong

deep-layer and low-level shear will favor supercells with all severe

hazards possible.

 

...MO/AR to the OH Valley overnight...

As the surface cyclone develops northeastward to the Great Lakes,

the surface cold front will progress eastward to the Ark-La-Miss and

lower OH Valley by Thursday morning. One or more bands of

convection are likely along or just ahead of the front tonight into

Wednesday morning, with an accompanying risk for damaging winds and

hail. The wind and tornado risk will be maximized with embedded

bowing segments and/or supercell structures within or ahead of the

convective band/front, in an environment with strong vertical shear

and sufficient low-level moisture/buoyancy. There will also be some

risk for more discrete storm development farther south into western

and central AR late tonight.

 

..Thompson/Kerr.. 02/28/2017[/nfo]

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Riscos leve e aumentado foram expandidos e um risco moderado agora está em vigor para leste do Missouri, centro-sul de Indiana e Illinois e norte do Kentucky, por alto risco de granizo grande e fortes tornados.

Há uma grande preocupação, pois o risco de tornados será maior durante a noite.

 

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GIF:

 

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Alerta de tornado em vigor para IL, KS e MO.

Primeiras tempestades estão se formando.

 

C5x2Hd9WMAEcxbY.jpg

 

Outro alerta de tornado emitido para IA, IN, IL, MO.

 

C5x-Gc_XMAAWdWo.jpg

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Primeiro aviso de tornado do dia emitido para região ao norte de Davenport, IA.

A tempestade deve adentrar no estado de Illinois dentro de meia hora no máximo.

 

C5yFPULU0AAo8rV.jpg

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Tempestade próxima de De Soto, MO apresentado rotação neste momento.

 

C5yGn2CWMAAiBfY.jpg

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Primeiro aviso de tornado do dia emitido para região ao norte de Davenport, IA.

A tempestade deve adentrar no estado de Illinois dentro de meia hora no máximo.

Aviso ainda em vigor e a rotação ainda se mantém.

 

C5yJ_aCUwAAG4ye.jpg

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