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Tempo Severo nos EUA - 2016


Felipe F
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  • 4 weeks later...

Risco 3 (enhanced) para tempo severo hoje (24/04) no Nebrasca e no Kansas. Risco principal é para granizo.

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Mas a maior ameaça está prevista pra terça-feira (26/04) em Oklahoma, Kansas e partes do Texas e Nebraska.

Há um consenso de outbreak com possibilidades de tornados intensos e duradouros.

 

Risco 3 (enhanced) com três dias de antecedência é bastante significativo nos panoramas do SPC

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yt6OE8e.gif

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Grande Outbreak de tempo severo esperado pra amanhã (ter - 26/04)

 

SPC emitiu perspectiva de risco moderado pro Kansas, Oklahoma e Nebraska. Com espectativa de alto risco para amanhã.

A probabilidade de qualquer evento severo é de 45% em partes desses estados com maior área sobre o Kansas

wJfKbin.png

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O destaque é Parâmetro de Tornados do NAM-4km que atinge o máximo da escala sobre Oklahoma e também pode se estender até o Texas

pTeFFkU.png

 

Modelo aponta também duas bandas associadas a baixa que devem ambas causar eventos extremos de tempo severo, como aconteceu no Super Outbreak de 1974.

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FORECAST DISCUSSION

[spoil]SPC AC 250555

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1255 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

 

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

NEB...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK...

 

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN

NEB...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...MUCH OF OK AND NORTH TX...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN PLAINS...

 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB TO THE MIDDLE RIO

GRANDE VALLEY...

 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO

VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

 

...SUMMARY...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE

NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN

ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE

MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

 

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

 

...FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN

PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...

 

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH

BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE

AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TUESDAY. A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET

WILL OVERSPREAD TX INTO OK/KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DCVA.

THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHING S/SW FROM

ROUGHLY CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 00Z/WED. THERE IS STILL

SOME VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW

POSITION...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER

WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING W-E NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE

KS BORDER AT 00Z. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS

THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AS FAR

NORTH AS S-CNTRL/SE NEB. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON...AND STRONG HEATING NEAR

THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE

AFTERNOON.

 

CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH

SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO N TX. DEPENDING ON YOUR FAVORED

MODEL DEPICTION...A BI-MODAL COVERAGE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE

INITIAL VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO KS AND

S-CNTRL NEB. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL EJECT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS

CNTRL/NRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE MIN

SOMEWHERE...BUT WHERE THIS IS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN

THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE

MAXIMIZED. STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES...VERY LARGE

/PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AFOREMENTIONED

COVERAGE CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME.

 

DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO

AN MCS OR BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO. WHILE A TORNADO

THREAT WILL LINGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT...A TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY

A LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH EASTWARD

EXTENT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX...STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE

DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUPERCELLS MAY

DEVELOP LATER THAN FURTHER NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A NIGHTTIME

TORNADO RISK BEFORE STORMS POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY APPROACH

NORTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL

BE POSSIBLE.

 

...OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

 

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK E/SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE

MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/WED. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF 45+ KT

MIDLEVEL W/NW FLOW ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A

COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO

VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE

DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY LIMIT

DESTABILIZATION...BUT CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR WIDELY

SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND

INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND

PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. SOME STRONG WINDS

AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

 

..LEITMAN.. 04/25/2016[/spoil]

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Panorama pra hoje é o seguinte:

 

Geral

jxJJwZ4.gif

 

Tornado

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Vento

JifDlcp.gif

 

Granizo

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Primeiro estado de atenção pra tornados em efeito no Kansas

ggWM2if.png

 

Um segundo deverá ser emitido nos próximos minutos pra Oklahoma e Texas, modelos desenham condições mais favoráveis pra formação de tornados nessa área

4uKEuwm.gif

 

Primeira linha de instabilidade está entre Oklahoma e Kansas com um alerta de trovoadas severas pra ambos os estados.

xUvjUEy.jpg

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ALERTA PRA SITUAÇÃO POTENCIALMENTE PERIGOSA NO TEXAS E OKLAHOMA (PDS TORNADO)

 

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PDS TORNADO WATCH 109

[spoil]URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 109

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

 

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST

OKLAHOMA

WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

 

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 230 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT

CDT.

 

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

 

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4

INCHES IN DIAMETER EXPECTED

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

 

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM IN

THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER WESTERN PART OF WATCH...INCLUDING A FEW

STRONG SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND

TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES AND

CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR

VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND.. AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY

MOVE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

 

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD

TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

 

&&

 

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107...WW 108...

 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.[/spoil]

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Um dos maiores fiascos da história!

Foram reportados até agora 11 tornados e nenhum nem dentro e nem perto da área do PDS 109

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Linha de instabilidade ainda está no meio...

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...mas o SPC já rebaixou a possibilidade (que já não era tão alta, 10%) de tornados para o Texas e Oklahoma.

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Segundo o NAM 4KM desenhava há dois dias, as condições se deteriorariam à partir do anoitecer na região, inclusive tornadogênese, o que está ocorrendo agora com tempestades e ventos fortes sendo reportados na Cidade de Oklahoma e alertas de tornados.

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  • 2 weeks later...

[align=center]Atualizando os tornados nos EUA em 2016:

 

Janeiro ficou abaixo da média, porém Fevereiro foi muito ativo, Março bem próximo do normal e Abril começou lento, mas a última semana, apesar do fiasco que ocorreu, foi ativa, porém isso não impediu que o mês terminasse abaixo da média. No geral 2016 está bem próximo da média até o momento.

 

Janeiro

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Fevereiro

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Março

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Abril

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TOTAL

fDsdOcm.gif

 

Mapas: Quincy Vagell e Ian Livingston[/align]

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Um surto de tempo severo está se iniciando hoje.

Tornados já foram reportados no Colorado, mas o evento principal será amanhã e segunda.

Os estados que devem ser afetados são Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Louisiana, Missouri e Arkansas.

Tornados fortes possíveis amanhã entre OK e KS.

 

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Ch4-D0WVIAA2bCx.jpg:large

 

Ch473gZUUAAKaER.jpg:large

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15 tornados foram reportados hoje no Colorado, porém vale ressaltar, que o número de tornados confirmados será bem menor, visto que vários destes reports são do mesmo tornado.

Danos foram reportados em algumas cidades devido aos tornados, felizmente não houve feridos confirmados.

 

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[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1OgueM-CyY[/bbvideo]

 

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Ontem tivemos 11 tornados reportados.

Os tornados afetaram Oklahoma, Kansas e Nebraska, causando alguns danos.

 

Tempo severo segue hoje, pelo menos 15 tornados reportados.

Os tornados foram reportados em Oklahoma e Nebraska.

Um forte tornado foi registrado minutos atrás, causando danos significativos e pelo menos duas mortes segundo relatos ainda não confirmados oficialmente.

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Ontem tivemos aproximadamente 27 tornados reportados.

Houve duas mortes no estado de Oklahoma.

Dados preliminares de ontem confirmam pelo menos dois +EF3.

 

Tempo severo segue hoje, afetando principalmente o Kentucky e Illinois.

Cerca de 9 tornados reportados até o momento.

Um tornado afetou Mayfield, Kentucky, deixou quase uma dezena de feridos.

 

jh55zTY.png

 

[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_Y-HOzu3nE[/bbvideo]

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  • 2 weeks later...

Grande possibilidade de registros de tornados hoje em duas áreas, uma abrangendo o Colorado e outra Texas, Oklahoma e Kansas. Há ainda possibilidade elevada de ocorrência de granizo grande.

 

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Tornado Watch 203

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Tornado Watch 204

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Possibilidade de om surto de tempo severo significativo pra quarta-feira no Texas e Oklahoma.

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Do dia 11 de Maio até ontem 24 de Maio, 106 tornados foram reportados nos EUA.

A maioria dos reports foram registrados nos dias 22 e 24.

 

Ontem tivemos 32 tornados reportados.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Quase um mês desde a última postagem.

Amanhã deverá ocorrer um outbreak de tempo severo na região dos lagos, possivelmente relacionado a um derecho, ventos intensos são, por enquanto a maior ameaça, a possibilidade de tornados é consistente, mas a intensidade dependerá da dissipação das trovoadas que ocorrerão esta noite na região.

 

Panorama geral do SPC pra amanhã 22/06

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Panorama de probabilidades de eventos severos

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Parâmetro tornádico amanhã a tarde/noite

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