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Carlos Dias

Monitoramento e Previsão Internacional - Anual 2013

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Forte neblina ao amanhecer desta sexta em Austin/TX atrasa o início do Primeiro Treino Livre da F1

 

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Austin tem 15C com 91% de umidade agora, o que segundo o narrador do Sportv dá "grande chance de precipitação" :russian:

 

Essas condições lembram aqueles amanhecer com forte neblina em SP no inverno... Amanhã há previsão de muito vento em Austin para os treinos classificatórios... No domingo, a temperatura dispara pra 30C... No geral, não há maior expectativa de chuva em nenhum dos dias.

 

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Risco moderado para amanhã nos estados de Ohio, Indiana, Michigan e partes de Illinois e Kentucky.

 

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

 

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IL INTO

IND...OH...SRN MI AND NRN KY...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH

THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND A PORTION OF THE NERN AND SERN STATES...

 

...SYNOPSIS...

 

A STRONG UPPER JET NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING SEWD

INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE

TROUGH. ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED

THROUGH THE MID MS...OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...REACHING

WRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS

FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SFC CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO

SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE

GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW

WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS...WHILE A WARM

FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

 

...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

 

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW

TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE

MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

 

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S ALONG

COASTAL TX WITH 70 NOT FAR OFFSHORE. A STRONG 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL

ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR

NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY WITH MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN

VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING IN MUCH OF THE

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR

BELT SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM

WILL BE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH A PLUME OF EWD

DEVELOPING 7-7.5 MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN WAKE OF WARM ADVECTION

STORMS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

 

THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG

PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT

REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHOULD SFC BASED WARM SECTOR

INITIATION OCCUR...80+ KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAST

MOVING STORMS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+

KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THE TORNADO THREAT

/SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP/ WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE OF

DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER.

 

OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT

FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND

SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THESE

STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH LEWP AND

BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES ALSO WILL

BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

 

...NERN U.S....

 

STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY

APPROACH THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND

MAY PERSIST WITH REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION LATE THIS PERIOD.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

@NWSSPC- We issued a Day 2 Moderate Risk for severe weather on Sunday. Here are past November Day 2 Moderates (since 1998)

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Tivemos esta manhã a primeira nevada da temporada aqui na região.

Um episódio muito ligeiro, mas põe termo a um início de Outono muito quente por aqui.

 

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O SPC emitiu um alto risco de tempo severo para partes de Indiana, Illinois, Ohio e Michigan.

O risco de tornados é alto.

Este é o segundo alto risco de 2013 e o primeiro alto risco em Novembro desde 15 de Novembro de 2005.

 

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0659 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

 

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

 

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF

ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND SRN MICHIGAN...

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

AREA...FROM MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND EASTERN MISSOURI NEWD INTO THE LWR

GRT LKS...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH AND MDT

RISK AREAS...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES/WRN NEW ENGLAND...

 

...SYNOPSIS...

SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND

WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS...EXPECTED OVER THE OH VLY AND SRN

GREAT LKS REGION TODAY/TNGT...

 

POTENT CNTRL PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MID-LVL WIND SPEEDS AOA

100 KTS...WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS/MID MS VLY LATER

TODAY...AND ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY BY EARLY TNGT...BEFORE TURNING

MORE NEWD ACROSS LWR GRT LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK

FROM SE IA THIS MORNING INTO NRN LWR MI BY EARLY TNGT. COLD FRONT

TRAILING S AND SW FROM THE LOW...NOW EXTENDING THROUGH NW MO AND FAR

ERN KS...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY...OVERTAKING

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER MO...AND REACHING WRN OH/N CNTRL KY

THIS EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE LWR GRT

LKS...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TNGT/EARLY

MON.

 

COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG TO INTENSE WIND FIELD WITH APPRECIABLE

SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OVER A FAIRLY WIDE AREA WILL YIELD A BROAD

SWATH OF SVR WEATHER FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VLY TO THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST/MOST CONCENTRATED

SVR THREAT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY STRONG AND/OR LONG-TRACK

TORNADOES...SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE OH VLY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE

MIDWEST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY

TNGT.

 

...MID MS/OH/LWR TN VLYS NEWD TO LWR GRT LKS/WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY

THROUGH EARLY MON...

LATEST OBSERVED DATA SHOW SFC LOW ALREADY STARTING TO DEEPEN OVER S

CNTRL IA...WITH LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS

CNTRL MO...ALONG AND E OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH. AT UPR

LVLS...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT EXIT REGION OF CNTRL PLNS JET STREAK

WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO THROUGH MID-MORNING...AND INTO

NRN/CNTRL IL BY MIDDAY.

 

COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE JET

STREAK...CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS

RISING INTO THE 60 F/...AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM

DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH BY MID TO

LATE MORNING OVER ERN MO AND CNTRL/NRN IL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD

CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA FROM ERN IA INTO

FAR NRN IL/SRN WI.

 

INTENSITY OF LOW TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY WITH 700 MB

SPEEDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH

SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY /SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J PER

KG/...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED

DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BEGINNING IN FAR ERN MO...AND

THEN CONTINUING ENE ACROSS MUCH OF IL...IND...FAR SRN WI...SRN MI

AND WRN OH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

 

WHILE STRENGTH OF SHEAR /RELATIVE TO DEGREE OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE

AND BUOYANCY/...AND DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN STORMS MAY

PROVE TO BE LIMITING FACTORS...SETUP NONETHELESS APPEARS CAPABLE OF

SUPPORTING A FEW LONG-TRACK/POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. WITH

TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS EVE AS LINEAR FORCING INCREASES ALONG

STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT...THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL

BROKEN LINES...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND RESIDUAL SUPERCELL

CIRCULATIONS CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND EWD INTO THE

NRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE

UNFAVORABLE...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD/DCVA...AND PRESENCE OF EXITING

CONVECTIVE BAND SUGGEST AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WINDS

EARLY MON EWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

 

FARTHER S...MID-LVL WARMING ON S SIDE OF AMPLIFIED MIDWESTERN JET

STREAK MAY SOMEWHAT HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT/DELAY SVR THREAT IN

VERY MOIST/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER

THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A LOW

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A

TORNADO OR TWO/...WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY

TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS RECEIVING ENHANCED AFTN SFC HEATING

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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Faz tempo que não vejo um PDS matinal!

As primeiras linhas de convecção pipocaram antes de amanhecer!

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Nuvem funil vista próximo a Hebron, Illinois.

Novo Tornado Watch deve ser emitido em breve.

 

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‏@severestudios

At 10:58 AM a tornado was confirmed near EAST PEORIA, IL... moving northeast at 55mph! WASHINGTON, EUREKA, IL in the path

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‏@severestudios

At 10:58 AM a tornado was confirmed near EAST PEORIA, IL... moving northeast at 55mph! WASHINGTON, EUREKA, IL in the path

 

Já suspeitava disso pela imagem do Radar

 

==========================================================================

 

Tornados Warnings no Illinois, e com células em formatos bem sugestivos! Detalhe: São ainda 11h da manhã!!

 

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Andrew Burtsfield near Pekin, Illinois.

 

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@4cast4you

11:06am CT: CONFIRMED TORNADO 3 miles NW of Morton, IL (Tazewell County) at the intersection of I-74 and I-474.

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‏@BTSullivan91

Debris signature seen now NW of Washington, IL on radar

 

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@4cast4you

11:14am CT: Emergency manager 4 miles south of Metamora, IL reports at large tornado.

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Pic of developing tornado near Pekin, IL which is now a LARGE and Extremely Dangerous Tornado near Benson, IL (via Lisa Logsdon)

 

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@gensiniwx Initial stage of tornado. Taken near East Peoria

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Impressionante a celula a nordeste de Washington/IL que originou Debris Ball...

 

Uma das estações do Wunderground, próximo a essa célula reportou rajada de 87km/h.

 

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O radar ainda mostra um eco de gancho! Esse tornado tá ativo a mais de meia hora e a célula que originou esse tornado baterá no centro de Chicago na próxima hora e meia.

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Tornados confirmados próximos a Wilmington e Symerton, IL

 

Peoria

 

BZSzTKJCcAAgpnQ.jpg

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Radares mostram um eco de gancho em uma célula que se move do Missouri para Illinois/Kentucky.

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Radares mostram um eco de gancho em uma célula que se move do Missouri para Illinois/Kentucky.
Um tornado foi reportado em Morley, MO, que fica nessa região que você citou.

Há relatos de danos significativos em Gifford,Illinois.

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Radares mostram um eco de gancho em uma célula que se move do Missouri para Illinois/Kentucky.
Um tornado foi reportado em Morley, MO, que fica nessa região que você citou.

Há relatos de danos significativos em Gifford,Illinois.

Sim! Pelos radares tá ativo ainda, pode ser que ele atravesse três estados americanos.

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Tornado deve passar próximo a Paducah, Kentucky: http://www.kfvs12.com/category/159507/watch-heartland-news-live

Até o momento tivemos mais de 30 tornados reportados.

Paducah é a maior cidade até o momento atingida por um tornado nesse outbreak, e esse tornado pode ter trocado de estado pelo menos 6 vezes. Deve-se analisar o rastro dele, acho que isso nunca foi reportado até hoje.

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Tornado que passou próximo a Paducah está indo em direção a Smithland.

 

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Tornado confirmado próximo a Kokomo, Indiana,

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NWS confirma danos condizentes com um tornado EF4 em New Minden, IL.

Até o momento 76 tornados reportados.

 

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